NFL Week 6 Draftkings Pickem Plays – 10/15/2017

Welcome to Week 6 of the Draftkings Pickem Plays article.  Another week of changes to the pickem tiers…please @Draftkings just stick to something already.  We are back to 8 tiers of 3-3-6-6-6-6-8-8.  I like having 8 tiers much better than 6, but I would prefer to go back to 2 QB tiers, instead of just 1.  Once Draftkings sticks to a format, I will go back to reviewing the results from the previous week and see what we can learn from it.  Until then, we continue to adapt.

Now let’s dive into the tiers for Week 6…

Tier 1

DeAndre Hopkins; Michael Thomas; Julio Jones

When we look at the 3-man tiers, every guy is in play.  Like I’ve said in previous articles though, we can’t play everyone.  The stand I’m going to take in Tier 1 is not playing Michael Thomas.  He will easily be the lowest owned, but I do not see a ceiling game coming against shadow corner Darius Slay.  We have seen throughout his career that Drew Brees is more than willing to look elsewhere instead of force-feeding the ball to Thomas.  In a later tier you’ll see where I’m going with the Thomas fade in the highest total game of the week at 50 points.  DeAndre Hopkins targets by game this season: 16, 13, 8, 12, and 12.  Hopkins has accounted for 39% of the Texans’ targets, which is easily the highest mark in the league.  Although this usage rate is clearly unsustainable, he is going up against a Browns defense that is 32nd in Football Outsider’s DVOA against opposing #1 receivers.  We should expect another 10+ targets in an ideal matchup for Hopkins, so I would have him on some lineups even if he’ll be the chalk.  Julio Jones is coming off an injury and a bye week.  He’s been limited in practice this week, but says he’s ready to go.  The total in the Falcons/Dolphins game has dropped 2 points to 46, but interestingly the Falcons total has moved from 29 to 29.5.  People HATE this Jay Cutler led Dolphins team, and I can’t blame them.  The 13 point spread scares me a bit, but Julio can get his any week, and he has a great matchup with Xavier Howard and a Dolphins defense that is 29th in DVOA against opposing #1 receivers.  In cash games Hopkins is the safer play, because of volume and Julio’s injury, but I will split my exposure to each in tournaments.

Tier 2

Devonta Freeman; Stefon Diggs; Brandin Cooks

As I said in tier 1, the Falcons are currently a 13 point favorite with the highest team total of the week at 29.5 against the Dolphins.  The Dolphins are #2 in rush defense DVOA and #9 in fantasy points allowed to RBs on the season, but Freeman should see the volume to overcome the matchup based on game script and is my favorite play for cash games in this tier.  Stefon Diggs hasn’t practiced as of Thursday and it is looking doubtful that he plays on Sunday, which really sucks because Diggs has a tremendous matchup with the Packers secondary.  If he plays, I’ll be playing him in tournaments, but I understand the hesitation with Case Keenum and him being banged up.  Brandin Cooks should get a lot of snaps against Jets cornerback Morris Claiborne.  The general public does not seem to realize how well Claiborne has been playing this year.  He’s been shadowing opposing #1 receivers since Week 2, allowing the following stat lines: Amari Cooper 4-33, Devante Parker 8-76-1 (garbage time touchdown), Marqise Lee 2-18, and I legitimately can’t find who he shadowed on the Browns so I’ll go with the best one in Ricardo Louis 5-71.  With the Patriots being a 9.5 point favorite, Cooks will most likely not be given the game-script to see 8+ targets.  He also hasn’t seen more than 8 targets in a game this season, so I will gladly pass on Cooks in this one.

Tier 3

Deshaun Watson; Aaron Rodgers; Drew Brees; Kirk Cousins; Matthew Stafford; Matt Ryan

I’m going to stick with my method of breaking down the QB tier that I used last week by simply listing the guys I like with the correlated weapons I’d stack him with (including opposing players in the game).  I won’t be using Matthew Stafford because he’s coming into the game banged up, and has a horrific offensive line.  Matt Ryan hasn’t cleared 21 fantasy points in a game this season and has had better matchups than this one.

Deshaun Watson – DeAndre Hopkins

Aaron Rodgers – Davante Adams, Randall Cobb, Aaron Jones, Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen

Drew Brees – Willie Snead, Golden Tate

Kirk Cousins – Jordan Reed, Pierre Garcon

Tier 4

Chris Hogan; Rob Gronkowski; Davante Adams; Jarvis Landry; Adam Thielen; Golden Tate

I truly believe this is the most difficult tier we’ve had so far this season that is reliant on a bunch of injuries.  If Stefon Diggs misses the game, I think I might just be all in on Adam Thielen against the Packers.  He has a great matchup with Quinten Rollins in the slot.  He has seen 8 targets each of the last 3 weeks, but without Diggs we can expect to see 10+ targets against an egregious Packers secondary.  As a reminder, in week 17 last season Thielen carved up the Packers for 12-202-2. Just saying.  If Devante Parker is out, Jarvis Landry can expect 10+ targets in a game that could get out of hand early and we might see 40+ attempts from Jay Cutler.  I don’t think Landry has the ceiling to lead this tier in raw points without Parker missing the game.  Davante Adams was put in the hospital two weeks ago from an illegal hit by Danny Trevathon, and came back last week scoring 2 touchdowns including the game winner.  Adams has 9 red zone targets (T-2nd in the NFL) and Jordy Nelson has 7 (T-3rd); these are clearly Aaron Rodgers’ go-to players in the red zone.  Nelson left last week’s game early, but has been practicing this week and is expected to play.  Nelson is expected to be shadowed by Xavier Rhodes, leaving Adams on our favorite target, Trae Waynes.  Golden Tate has a great matchup against Saints slot corner Kenny Vaccaro.  Stafford’s injuries scare me a bit, as we’ve seen him really ineffective in the past dealing with injuries, but I’ve been on Tate all season and won’t be jumping off now in one of his best matchups of the season.  Rob Gronkowski practiced on Thursday and is expected to play, which makes it more difficult that Gronk and Chris Hogan are in the same tier.  The Jets have quietly been #2 in DVOA against the tight end this season, but those numbers don’t usually apply to the likes of Gronk.  I really like Chris Hogan in a matchup with Jets corner Darryl Roberts.  Hogan’s seen 20 targets the past 2 weeks and has scored 5 touchdowns the past 4 weeks.  Hogan has 9 red zone targets, which is tied for 2nd in the NFL; he’s my favorite play in a stacked tier pending Diggs news.

Tier 5

Will Fuller; Danny Amendola; Lamar Miller; Pierre Garcon; Randall Cobb; Terrelle Pryor

The Texans are a 10 point home favorite against the Cleveland Browns.  Even with D’Onta Foreman being more involved, Lamar Miller has still seen 15+ touches in every game this season, which includes 9 red zone carries and 5 inside the 10 yard line.  Similar to Devonta Freeman, Miller is facing a good run defense in the Browns (3rd in run defense DVOA) and just got Myles Garrett back last week.  I think his touch volume and the game script could dictate a big day, just like Freeman.  I don’t want to chase touchdowns with Will Fuller who has 4 touchdowns on 9 targets since returning from his preseason injury.  Terrance Newman has been a good corner, but he’s not good enough to scare me off my boy Randall Cobb.  What will scare me off Cobb is that he hasn’t topped 5 targets since Week 2 and the receiving corp is healthy (minus Ty Montgomery if you want to count him).  Pierre Garcon is my favorite non-Miller play in this tier.  He’s seen double-digit targets in 3 of 5 weeks this season.  The Niners are 11 point road underdogs against the Redskins, who will be without Josh Norman this week.  Garcon should run most of his routes against Quinton Dunbar, a matchup he should have no problem beating.

Tier 6

Chris Thompson; Carlos Hyde; Jordan Howard; Javorius Allen; Jay Ajayi; Aaron Jones

Carlos Hyde, Jordan Howard, and Jay Ajayi are all large road underdogs…pass.  If Terrance West misses this game, Javorius Allen is a lock for me in this tier.  The Ravens are 6.5 point favorites at home against rookie QB Mitchell Trubisky and the Bears.  Last week in positive game-script, Allen had 21 carries and 5 targets.  Allen is 6th in the NFL in red zone carries with 14 and has seen 5+ targets in his last 4 games.  Don’t over think it.  But if you want to over think it, Chris Thompson could also be in for a big day.  Thompson hasn’t seen more than 8 carries in a game this season, so we are reliant on him getting his work done in the passing game.  Since the Redskins are 11 point favorites, it could turn into a Samaje Perine game early.  If Ty Montgomery and Jamaal Williams are both out again, Aaron Jones would be in play again.  The matchup with the Vikings on the road is less than ideal, but Jones should see a work horse role with the Packers which is always in play.

Tier 7

Duke Johnson; Alvin Kamara; Tarik Cohen; James White; Mike Gillislee; Marvin Jones; Jeremy Maclin; Jordan Reed

Alvin Kamara is going to be the chalk, and rightfully so; he’s averaging 7 targets per game.  The issue I have is that people believe the Adrian Peterson trade will help him, when I think it’s just going to help Mark Ingram command the bulk of the carries and all of the red zone work.  Kamara has seen just 15 carries through 4 games, and I doubt he approaches double-digit carries.  I like Kamara this week and for the rest of the season (like I did before the AP trade), but if he’s going to be 50%+ owned, I will gladly find some pivots.  As home favorites, game-script could also get away from Kamara, while the offense turns to Ingram.  My favorite play in this tier is Duke Johnson.  He has a very similar role to Kamara in that he won’t see double-digit carries, but has a ceiling of double-digit targets in bad game script.  The good news is the Browns are 10 point road underdogs to the Texans, who just lost J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus for the season.  The Texans defense has been decimated by injuries the last few weeks, and I believe the Browns will have success moving the ball against them.  This game has “shootout” potential  When I say shootout, I mean the Texans will win by 20, but the score might be 44-24 as opposed to 23-3.  We can’t trust these Browns receivers, no matter who was lifted off the practice squad the week before (this week Ricardo Louis is the hot Browns receiver).  Duke Johnson is the only consistent producer on this offense, and he’s the only weapon I trust in fantasy.

Tier 8

Jermaine Kearse; Austin Seferian-Jenkins; Ameer Abdullah; Mike Wallace; Taylor Gabriel; Kenny Stills; Latavius Murray; Willie Snead

Willie Snead is a guy I loved going into this season, but after his suspension it looks like the team will ease him back into the offense (he’s also dealing with a hamstring injury).  I may have some in Brees stacks, but am not excited about it going against Quandre Diggs in the slot.  I also have a lot of interest in Taylor Gabriel, who is going up against the 29th ranked team in pass defense DVOA.  Mohamed Sanu is unlikely to play after not practicing all week and Julio Jones is hobbling into the game injured.  Gabriel hasn’t seen more than 6 targets in a game this year, but is tied with Julio Jones for the team high aDOT (average depth of target per AirYards.com) of 13.6 yards.  Gabriel can break a long one any moment, and if we can give him a bump in expected targets, he’s in play.  The other player I’m currently considering is Austin Seferian-Jenkins, who’s leading the Jets in targets and receptions since he returned from suspension in Week 3.  The Patriots are 9.5 point favorites over the Jets, but I expect the Jets to have success moving the ball on offense.  The Patriots have the 32nd ranked defense by DVOA…that’s out of 32 teams.  I just want this to be clear, the Patriots have the worst defense in the NFL (I’m a Jets fan so this sentence brings me joy).  Similar to the Jarvis Landry play, where the Jets should throw 40+ times and Seferian-Jenkins should be able to rack up PPR points.  If he can get into the end zone, we’re in business.  The Patriots are also 24th in DVOA against the tight end…but again they’re the worst defense in the NFL.  Never forget that.

Good luck this week, and feel free to reach out with questions/feedback on twitter @EvanRosenberg0

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