NFL Week 8 Draftkings Pickem Plays – 10/29/2017

I want to briefly touch on the weather this week.  A few of these 1pm games have some severe weather concerns, and with only 7 games on the slate, it’s vital to check on reports Sunday morning.  One of my favorite ways to check weather is through Vegas lines.  For example, the Eagles/49ers and Jets/Falcons games have already had 2 point drops in each over/under.  However, the Buccaneers/Panthers total has risen 2 points, and that game is another weather concern.  Sunday morning line movement should let us know if there are any serious concerns, so monitor Vegas lines or follow me on twitter for updates.

Let’s dive into Week 8…

Tier 1

A.J. Green; LeSean McCoy; Julio Jones

Per usual, everyone is in play in tier 1.  A.J. Green has one of the best matchups you can have for a wide receiver against the 30th ranked pass defense by Football Outsiders’ DVOA.  Green is sure to be popular, and as 11 point home favorites he may not see the volume he needs to top this tier.  In Week 4 the Bengals blew out the Browns on the road and Green saw “only” 7 targets for a 5-63-1 stat line and 17.3 fantasy points.  I prefer LeSean McCoy in this tier as my favorite play.  McCoy is a slight home favorite against the Raiders (28th ranked defense by DVOA).  McCoy has 20+ touches in all but one game this season, so the volume is there.  Also with a depleted receiving corp, McCoy has been seeing WR1 targets, with 16 targets the past two weeks.  McCoy has both the safest floor and highest ceiling in tier 1.

Tier 2

Melvin Gordon; Mike Evans; Mark Ingram

This is the most difficult tier for me this week, as I love all 3 players this week.  If playing cash games (head to heads, double ups, smaller field contests), I think Mark Ingram is the safest option.  Ingram is seeing elite running back usage and is a 9 point home favorite against the Bears.  I expect him to be the most popular in this tier, so you can look to Melvin Gordon or Mike Evans in tournaments.  Evans is in play for me in game stacks, which you’ll see throughout this article that the Buccaneers/Panthers game is one I’m targeting.  Evans has seen 8+ targets every game this season, which includes the most difficult matchups like Patrick Peterson.  However, the other game I will be game stacking is the Chargers/Patriots game…so I’m in a bit of a pickle.  I wrote the following about Gordon in my Stacks Report:

Without Hightower, Gordon could be in for a ceiling game.  The Patriots rank 29th in DVOA against RBs out of the backfield, and Gordon has 24 targets the past 3 weeks.  The Patriots defense is overall bad, but they’re especially vulnerable in the short passing game, where they rank 31st in passer rating allowed to QBs according to Sharp Football Stats.

I will most likely diversify this tier and have exposure to all three players, which is definitely sub-optimal but important for game stacks.

Tier 3

Carson Wentz; Tom Brady; Drew Brees; Cam Newton; Matt Ryan

Here’s a list of which QBs I like in this tier and who I’ll be stacking them with:

Tom Brady: Melvin Gordon, Keenan Allen, Chris Hogan, Hunter Henry

Cam Newton: Mike Evans, Christian McCaffrey, Devin Funchess, DeSean Jackson

Tier 4

Jameis Winston; Philip Rivers; Derek Carr; Tyrod Taylor; Andy Dalton

Philip Rivers: Melvin Gordon, Keenan Allen, Chris Hogan, Hunter Henry

Jameis Winston: Mike Evans, Christian McCaffrey, Devin Funchess, DeSean Jackson

Tyrod Taylor: LeSean McCoy

Tier 5

Rob Gronkowski; Zach Ertz; Devonta Freeman; Michael Thomas; Jordan Howard; Keenan Allen

You might be wondering why I didn’t include Rob Gronkowski in my Brady and Rivers stacks…or you might have not even noticed and are now thinking about it.  Either way, it’s because Gronk is in the same tier as my favorite overall play this week in Keenan Allen.  He is 3rd in the NFL in targets and T-6th in red zone targets.  The Patriots starting (but not good) slot corner Eric Rowe is out for this game along with linebacker Dont’a Hightower, which should open up the middle of the field to be exposed even more than it already has been.  As stated earlier, the Patriots are 31st in passer rating allowed to the short pass, so Allen should be a PPR monster this week (like he usually is).  Obviously, there are other good plays in this tier, but it’s important to take a few stands in tiers so you can keep a tight core.

Tier 6

Brandin Cooks; Christian McCaffrey; Chris Hogan; Amari Cooper; Kelvin Benjamin; Alshon Jeffery

This tier has 4 players in my favorite two games, so I’m going to have to narrow down my options.  Brandin Cooks should see the most of Casey Hayward coverage, and I don’t expect Brady to force him the ball when he’s not open; Cooks has yet to reach double digit targets on the Patriots, so the ceiling game will be tough to come by in this matchup.  Chris Hogan is the most interesting Patriots pass catcher to me, because Cooks has a tough matchup, Gronkowksi will see the 5th ranked defense against tight ends by DVOA, and Danny Amendola is questionable (ya know, the usual).  As I’ve said in past weeks, Christian McCaffrey is a wide receiver that gets a few hand offs.  For fantasy purposes, you’re playing him for his receiving (47 targets the past 5 weeks), not his 5 carries at about 2 yards per carry.  McCaffrey has only had 2 touchdowns this season, and I will continue to play him waiting for the explosion game.  The Buccaneers have the 32nd ranked defense by DVOA, so no better time than now!  Over the past 5 games, Kelvin Benjamin has only eclipsed 6 targets once, only had 100 yards once, and only scored once…so I believe he’s clearly a worse play than McCaffrey, and I’ll stay away.

Tier 7

Michael Crabtree; Carlos Hyde; Alvin Kamara; Nelson Agholor; Pierre Garcon; DeSean Jackson; Devin Funchess; LeGarrette Blount

The new Panthers #1 receiver, Devin Funchess, is the man you want to roster.  Funchess has 8+ targets each of the past 5 games.  Funchess leads the team in air yards and is top two on the Panthers in targets and receptions.  Even though Funchess has yet to clear 70 yards this season, his targets and air yards have him set up for positive regression (or however you want to say that).  DeSean Jackson is also in play on the other side of this game.  Jackson has scored double digit fantasy points each game this season, and should get a bump in targets with Evans facing Casey Hayward.  The last spot I’m interested in is one of the 49ers players: Carlos Hyde or Pierre Garcon.  This will depend entirely on the weather, but if it looks OK, Garcon could be in for a high volume game as 12.5 point road underdogs.  Garcon is 2nd in the NFL to Adam Thielen in targets, receptions, receiving yards, and air yards to not score a touchdown yet this season…it’s coming.  If the weather looks horrible, we can expect a heavy workload from Carlos Hyde and I’ll take my chances that he can break one against this weakened Eagles defense that lost linebacker Jordan Hicks for the season.

Tier 8

Doug Martin; Ted Ginn; T.Y. Hilton; Jermaine Kearse; Danny Amendola; Mohamed Sanu; Hunter Henry; Joe Mixon

Here’s what I said about Joe Mixon in the Stacks article:

I have been holding onto Joe Mixon on multiple season long teams, rejecting trade offers left and right waiting for the breakout game.  The Bengals are 10.5 point home favorites against the Colts (30th in Football Outsider’s defense DVOA ranking).  The one bright spot for the Colts defense this year had been 1st round rookie Malik Hooker , who tore his ACL last week and is now done for the season.  The Colts have allowed a combined 84.6 Draftkings points the past two weeks to opposing running backs (Jaguars and Titans); those are not so good numbers if you didn’t know. Mixon’s workload is a bit of a concern, as he went into the bye week with touch counts of 21, 21, and 15; then last week coming off the bye, Mixon saw just 10 touches.  Mixon has had a narrow range of outcomes the past 4 games, scoring between 8.8 and 13.1 PPR points in each.  Over that stretch, he has 8 red zone carries and has only scored one touchdown.

Other than Mixon, I’m interested in Hunter Henry in game stacks.  The Chargers have finally allowed Henry to play more than Gates, thus resulting in double digit fantasy points each of the past 3 weeks.  Over that stretch, Henry easily leads the team in yards with 205.  He’s a threat to score every week, and can always pop for a multiple touchdown week.  Also, if the weather looks bad in the Buccaneers/Panthers game, I’ll be all in on Doug Martin.  Martin’s seen 16+ touches a week since he’s been back from suspension, and they’ve lost all those games.  As 2 point home favorites in (potentially) bad weather, Martin could see a massive workload.

Good luck this week, and feel free to reach out with questions/feedback on twitter @EvanRosenberg0.  I would love to hear your thoughts and discuss further. 

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