Week three and we are still trudging along, but by now we have seen multiple injuries, players drop in rankings, and most importantly players either showing out or not showing up at all. The latter sure does piss you off as a fantasy owner. We dive deep all summer to have the best strategies on drafting just to see it go right or fizzle.
Right now, there are so many players under-producing on their original ADP its downright ridiculous. So much for our months of studying and tape watching, but that is the point of fantasy, it is only real to us! So, let’s look at players who are underperforming and possibly best left on the bench versus players who might still be on waivers and could use a longer look.
Overvalued
Marquez Callaway WR Saints
This pains me to write as a huge Saints fan who watched Callaway thrive in the preseason as a yardage and touchdown machine. He looked like the answer to the Saints’ woes with Thomas and Smith being sidelined. In drafts, he was picked in later rounds but still drafted over many know wideouts in hopes that he was that “sleeper pick” that would propel ones’ team.
Yet, he has yet to live up to anything along those lines. In two games, Callaway has had three receptions on six targets for 22 yards. That’s it…22 YARDS. The Saints sure could’ve used his deep threat ability versus the Panthers, but alas I digress. Week 3, Callaway faces New England’s secondary that created four takeaways Week 2 against Zach Wilson.
I do not have faith in him this week so he is better left on the bench until he and Winston reignite the pre-season chemistry they had. He is rostered is 72% of ESPN leagues and 61% of Yahoo leagues, and my prediction is that number will decrease as fantasy owners drop him in favor of other waiver wire players sooner than later.
D’Andre Swift RB Lions
There is efficiency, then there is D’Andre Swift. Let’s look past his current standing in the community and that RB6 overall fantasy ranking at the moment (based on total fantasy points). More than half his fantasy points came in week 1. I love the player but not the situation, nor do I think his production and standing are sustainable.
He’s 32nd in rushing yards and 30th in carries just is not going to cut it. His production is coming in the passing game, now granted the Lions do not command a very good defense, but the passing work is being shared with Jamaal Williams. 25t in opportunity share, combined with being 25th in evaded tackles and 37th in juke rate, shows a lack of high consistent upside.
Being in a negative game script more often than not, I do not see how the carries are going to increase for Swift. Did you know the Lions’ defense has given up over 30 points in 8 straight games? Keep in mind he is also dealing with a groin injury that he has not fully recovered from and playing through. I will end on his schedule which is brutal against the Running Back position, as he faces the Ravens, Bears (twice), Rams, Eagles, Steelers just to name a few.
If you own Swift, I am selling high on him while I can. For the remainder of the season, I have swift just inside RB2 territory (RB23) for the ROS.
Undervalued
Derek Carr QB Raiders
I feel like every year he makes some waves in QB discussions, but he really is never your go-to guy. I the past two weeks, he has combined for 817 yards, four touchdowns, and only one interception. The Raiders are 2-0 and played decent teams in the Ravens and the Steelers.
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He leads his team Week 3 at home to face the struggling Dolphins who potentially lost Tua for a few games with rib fractures, and a defense that just allowed Allen and the Bills to blow them out. Carr himself was cleared from his ankle injury and barring in setbacks in practice, he will roll Sunday in Vegas. Dare I say he is becoming reliable? He has weapons in Waller and Company, and is not afraid to take chances to extend the play.
In the last two weeks, he has finished QB 9th and 8th and I could see him finishing 7th or higher this week as the Dolphins defense though stout, I feel will be on the field a lot since Brissett will be starting for Tua. Rostered in only 22% of ESPN and 28% of Yahoo leagues, he is not only a streamer option but a viable weekly starter. Predictions: 300 plus yards, three touchdowns, and one interception.
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Javonte Williams RB Broncos
The window to buy low on Williams is closing by the game. This week is probably your last chance, as he now goes up against the Jets. Not only are they playing at Mile High, but going up against a defense that just got smoked by the Patriots running game, giving up two touchdowns, allowing 4.1 YPC. This only gets better in the passing game, as they have surrendered the third-most receptions and receiving yards to the position.
This is a boom spot for Williams, where I fully expect for him to begin to establish himself in this offense. Melvin Gordon is averaging more touches per game, but this is as close to a 50/50 timeshare as they come. Even in a timeshare, Williams is 5th in evaded tackles and 3rd in juke rate. With limited touches, the only aspect of his game missing is touchdowns, which will come as he has at least two red zone touches in both games played.
As the season progresses, with the weather getting cooler, the run game is going to play a significant role for this offense, which I am projecting Williams to own more than of the opportunity share by mid-season. Buy low while you can, before he begins returning mid to high RB2 value, which is what I am projecting for him by midseason.
Feel free to debate us or tell us we’re wrong (though deep down we know we’re right) on Twitter
Courtney Burrows @luvtractor3
Hamid Sandhu @FFJunkie85
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