One guy was given a fat stack of cash off a limited career. The other was going to change a Franchises perception on how they ‘use’ the position. How did they both finish?
Fine readers of the Going For 2 fanbase my name is @TheBLeagueSays and I am 100% here for all the Ian Thomas shares I can find! And thank you for the awesome feedback and conversations following last weeks Pros and Cons – it seems to have struck a chord with the audience. Once again please remember that the articles I bring to you will be based on the Pros and Cons of players the Fantasy Football Community had split ideas on prior to the season starting. It’s recap city over here!
So before we get started – Thank you, and enjoy!
Prior to the season starting, I went to the masses and started listening to what the streets were saying. That’s right. Because the streets have nothing better to do these days than to talk about Fantasy Football, starts and sits, buy lows and sell highs. But by now, after nearly 25 weeks of my gibberish and rhetoric, you know what this article is and means to the audience. I literally mention it in my opening template every week. I take the Pros and Cons of players the Fantasy Football Community is harping on about and break down the good and the bad, the upside and the downside (you get the drift right?) of what certain players have to offer. I selected a handful of players from each position at the start of the year and am now following up with how their season finished and what their future looks like.
At Tight End position, I selected both Trey Burton and Jimmy Graham, who will be this week’s focal point one last time to follow up on how their seasons unfolded. How about we start with the basic numbers…
Highest Position Finish / Week: Trey Burton finished as the Tight End 1 Overall with 23.1 points vs New England. Jimmy Graham finished as high as the Tight End 5 Overall in Week 6 with 12.9 points vs San Francisco.
Lowest Finish / Week: Trey Burton finished Week 13 against the New York Giants as the Tight End 38 (tied with multiple players who also did nothing) with 0.0 points. That’s right, he wasn’t targetted once in a game that went into overtime. Jimmy Graham finished Week 11 as the Tight End 30 Overall with 1.8 points.
Best Fantasy Performance / Week: Trey Burton’s best Fantasy Week 7 in the above-mentioned game vs the New England Patriots with said 23.1 points and as the Tight End 1 for that week. Jimmy Graham’s best Fantasy scoring game came in Week 9 against New England with a 6-4-55-1 TD week which was good for 13.5 points and a Tight End 7 Overall.
Preseason ADP (per fantasyfootballcalculator.com): Trey Burton was Drafted as the TE6 or 6.10 Overall. Jimmy Graham was Drafted as the TE4 or 5.05 Overall.
My Projections –
All projections are for the respective Players ceiling
Predicted Receiving: Targets: 96.5 / Catch Rate: 66.9% / Receptions: 64.5 / Yards Per Reception: 11.21 / Yards: 723.04 / TDS: 9
Results Receiving: Targets: 77 / Catch Rate: 70.1% / Receptions: 54 / Yards Per Reception: 10.54 / Yards: 569 / TDS: 6
Was I In The Ballpark? – Well, I called the correct position which is something. For the most part, I projected him to have a bigger year with more Targets, Receptions, Yards, and Touchdowns. But such was the Tight End position in 2018. Underwhelming at best.
PREDICTED FINISH; TE7 / END OF SEASON FINISH; TE7
Predicted Receiving: Targets: 98 / Catch Rate: 64.4% / Receptions: 66 / Yards Per Reception: 10.92 / Yards: 720.72 / TDS: 6
Results Receiving: Targets: 89 / Catch Rate: 61.8% / Receptions: 55 / Yards Per Reception: 11.56 / Yards: 636 / TDS: 2
Was I In The Ballpark? – I’m trying to say that I was close, but I’d be lying to myself… and you… but probably more to me… then to you again… either way it’d be insulting to both of us, and more so to the person who drafted Graham expecting what he was in the past.
PREDICTED FINISH; TE8 / END OF SEASON FINISH; TE14
So, you wanna talk about the Tight End position, hey?
Not really, no…
Oh, come on it’ll be fun! How about I give you one name and one name only that sums up and defined the Tight End position for the 2018 season?
If you insist…
Ok. How about… Will Dissly.
Slow down and repeat yourself for me please, one last time?
That one name sums up the Tight End position for me this season. Who was he? No one knew. But for the sake of an argument, Will Dissly was a Rookie drafted by Seattle (Pick 120, Round 4) from the University of Washington and for the life of me cannot recall an article, podcast, tweet – anything – about the guy until after Week One. Can you? And here he is, with Russell Wilson, crushing it like a top 5 Tight End would like absolutely no one had predicted.
In Week One, Will Dissly against Denver popped for a 5-3-105-1 Touchdown week and finished the Tight End 3 Overall in his debut. He followed that up with a 5-3-42-1 Touchdown week against Chicago where he was the Tight end 8 Overall. By this point, we knew his name, and he was the Waiver Wire grab we were all throwing our Free Agent Acquisition Budgets (FAAB) at in Week 3. Two top Defences played against and he scored and performed each time. Not David Njoku, not Ricky Seals-Jones; both guys who were loved in the offseason. But Will Dissly. Unfortunately for Dissly, he got hurt and ended up on the Injured Reserve after Week 4 after damaging his patella tendon (Seattle Tight Ends and patella tendon tears, amirite?!).
In those two games, in those first two games of the year, in back-to-back weeks Will Dissly had the same amount of Touchdowns that Jimmy Graham had over an entire 16 game season.
And what about the other TIGHT ENDS who we drafted this year?
Let’s start with our guys first: Graham and Burton went as the 4th and 6th Tight Ends off of the board respectively this year, when the ‘Big 3’ Tight Ends at the start of the year they were coming off the board relatively quickly. So when you drafted this year, generally speaking, it was when Jimmy Graham came off the board fourth, then there was a run at the Tight End position that came quite rapidly. The TE12 in ADP redraft this year was Jack Doyle who went in the 12th round. But there were seemingly two guys that we kind of ‘missed’ on.
The Tight End 13 and taken as a ‘flyer’ in 2018 was George Kittle.
Kittle, the Tight End 3 Overall for the year, was drafted as a Tight End 2 to start the year going 13.05 range. Kittle this year was a Yards After Catch monster and had 11 of 16 games with over 70 yards. With four games over 100 yards. One game with over 200 yards. In 13 games Kittle had 7 or more Targets (136 total for the year, 18th overall amongst ALL Receivers) and had 88 receptions, 1377 yards with 5 TDS. We somewhat waited on Kittle because we weren’t sure about how Kittle would work with Jimmy Garoppolo and it turns out he can strike gold with anyone really. C.J. Beathard, Nick Mullens it doesn’t matter what their name is – he produced regardless.
The other guy we missed on was Eric Ebron, who was selected after Colts teammate Jack Doyle, and two places behind George Kittle as the Tight End 15 in the 13.09. Now, Ebron crushed three games with multiple scores with 13 Touchdowns total this season. But he did that off 55 Receptions only, so he was going at a Touchdown for every 4.2 Receptions or 23.6% of the time. How sustainable that is, is another thing we will probably debate most of the offseason I’d guess. Ebron was cut by the Lions in the offseason and the Colts grabbed him in the last year of his Rookie deal, an absolute steal considering how his and the Colts season had unfolded. Ebron had an amazing season and could have revived his career in Indianapolis in a team that wants to use Tight Ends frequently.
Where did ‘our guys’ finish?
Burton finished as a Tight End 1 for the year as the Tight End 7 Overall with 120.1 points. And he had a few weeks where he dominated. He also finished a few games doing next to nothing. Or nothing at all. But as I said months back in my Tight End post-apocalyptic wasteland article that this outcome for all Tight Ends that unless their names were Travis Kelce, Rob Gronkowski or Zach Ertz that struggle for points at this position was possible and likely each week. And unless you have Kelce, Gronkowski (as the season wore on, Gronkowski became less and less of a sure thing) or Ertz (and now George Kittle in that group) most of your time trying to gain a consistent player at that position could be a waste of time.
Jimmy Graham finished as a Tight End 2 for the year as the Tight End 14 Overall with 103.1 points. I could tell you that he had a good year but the Packers at times were terrible. And their use of Graham at times was ignorant for a player of his size and abilities. Funnily, the scoring difference between Graham and Burton was roughly 2 Receptions, 2 Touchdowns, and 40 yards in the end. That’s it. 17 points roughly. Brutal.
To give you some perspective on Burton, backup Running Back Latavius Murray finished as the RB35 (Drafted as the RB48 at the 11.01) and averaged overall the same amount of points, as did Dustin Hopkins (a Kicker, that’s right – a Kicker) who was the 13th best Kicker at the end of the year. The 13th best Kicker was better than a 6th Round selection in Trey Burton.
And to take that a step further; for Jimmy Graham, well, O.J. Howard had more points (10.4 ppg, 103.5 points and was Drafted as the Tight End 16 in the late 13th Round) in 10 games than Graham (6.4 ppg, 103.1) had in 16 games. Also, Wendall Smallwood, RB41 Overall, and Willie Snead WR56 Overall also outproduced a guy you took in the 4th Round. Makes you think… Oh and Steven Hauschka! He was the 16th best Kicker this year. The 16th best kicker was a higher scorer than Jimmy Graham, a 5th round pick.
But Kickers are the problem…
No really, get rid of one position that outscores another because you are too lazy to do the homework each week or from the start of the year. Keep drafting guys like Jimmy Graham who have underperformed this year in a position that has flat out stunk and propose no changes to make those players or position more useful. Just get rid of a position that has been better and has more consistent scorers.
No, I’m the wrong one here…
DO YOU KNOW:
- Trey Burton ranked 3rd Overall amongst Tight Ends (with a minimum 10 Targets) for successful plays rate (57%) in the Red Zone with a 14-8-5 Touchdowns. 62.5% of his 8 Red Zone Receptions went for Touchdowns. Not bad!
- Jimmy Graham ranked 12th Overall amongst Tight Ends (with a minimum 10 Targets) for successful plays rate (30%) in the Red Zone with a 10-3-2 Touchdowns. 66% of his Red Zone Receptions went for Touchdowns. Not bad, if only Aaron Rodgers looked for him for often!
- Travis Kelce had the highest successful plays rate (59%) amongst Tight Ends going 27-16-10 Touchdowns. Kelce had more Red Zone Touchdowns than Jimmy Graham had Red Zone Targets. Yuck…
He is the lead Tight End, and doesn’t have to fight with Zach Ertz for work: It must be pretty hard to stand out when Zach Ertz is a dominant figure but before I dive into this, the Eagles Drafted Tight End Dallas Goedert in the 2018 Draft. Goedert was effectively the number two Tight End in Philadelphia from the get-go and as a Rookie had finished with a 44-33-334-4 Touchdown season. In Burton’s last year (and fourth year) in Philadelphia, Burton struck a 31-23-248-5 Touchdown season and most of that work came when Zach Ertz wasn’t available or limited that week. Goedert popped and made plays with or without Ertz. Goedert as a Rookie was simply better than Burton as a fourth-year Pro.
He’s more likely to find and add touches to the Packers Offense than take away from other players: With Aaron Rodgers losing Jordy Nelson you would think that there was a role for volume in the middle of the field for Jimmy Graham to occupy. And we could run off Nelson’s last season in Green Bay, but for the most part, Brett Hundley was under center and that wouldn’t be fair and add to that a year before in 2016 Jordy Nelson was still in his ‘peak’. So to say Nelson was on the decline prior to the 2017 season starting is a tad harsh because with a full season of Aaron Rodgers last year – had it have been a successful season – Nelson may not have been moved at all, and Jimmy Graham may not have been recruited. So there’s that to digest, I guess.
I’ll be honest (for once, I guess) I don’t know how much of Graham’s lack of production (everyone aside from Davante Adams) was down to Aaron Rodgers not at his best or injured, or whether it was flat out bad playcalling, or because of the changes in Offensive philosophy when Joe Philbin took over – or maybe it was just bad execution and he struggled. Maybe it was all of that – which tends to have you believe that the Packers were a flat out mess. Ty Montgomery was barely a thing and was shipped off to Baltimore mid-year. Randall Cobb did his world famous ‘midseason injury/disappearing act’, and there were a bunch of Rookies who showed inconsistencies all season – at times, they flashed good signs, but still inconsistent nonetheless. The Packers were just all over the place. The last Touchdown Graham had was in Week 9, which was also on the back of a five-game dry spell as his first came in Week 4. Outside of that… There’s not much to write home about.
I think that Mitchell Trubisky grew this year and was going strong until he hurt his shoulder mid-season. And if we can consider this a step forward for Trubisky with new Head Coach Matt Nagy, then I believe that this is a solid building block season for future production and a good sign for Trey Burton heading into 2019. Now did he disappoint you this season? Sure, I’d say with the ‘Travis Kelce Role’ spiel we were getting at the start of the year had us off our chairs with excitement, but there is plenty of room to grow. Another offseason and preseason together will do them wonders as the Bears will look to find themselves again at the top of the NFC North.
I’ve mentioned earlier that Jimmy Graham mustered up quite possibly the quietest 600-plus yard season you could remember. And I’m trying really, really hard to give you something positive out of all this. Is it the 66% Red Zone conversion into Touchdowns. Sure, I can hang my hat on that but it was two Touchdowns off three Targets and that, for a guy like Jimmy Graham is absolutely not enough volume in that area of the field to stay fantasy relevant – however, a few more Touchdowns and a handful more yards would have seen him finish as a mid Tight End 1 Overall also, so maybe if that can be corrected (just maybe) there may be some more hope heading into 2019. It was hard to find the positives out of Graham’s 2018 season. Can I say ‘at least he stayed pretty healthy’? I can? Great, well, at least he stayed pretty healthy!
In a high powered offense at Philadelphia in 2017, he didn’t really do much unless Zach Ertz was hurt: This was a fair and reasonable thing to be cautious AND curious about Burton because when he did play he looked solid but when he didn’t play, well, meh. All we had seen was maybe a two-game sample on him as a ‘lead guy’. When the Eagles closed out the season, even with Nick Foles in command they seemed to be able to put up points at will. And as a result of Doug Peterson and his system, Trey Burton, when called upon, did well. What we also know now about the Eagles offense was how influential Frank Reich (then Offensive Coordinator) had been, especially with the use of the Tight End role. Eric Ebron flourished in Indianapolis this season with Reich and Andrew Luck, albeit with what is likely unsustainable Targets to TD rate heading into 2019, but still, he flourished none the less. Burton felt like even though he was heading to Chicago was still a bit of an unknown. But we know ‘Philly’ loved to roll out two tight ends sets and we know Matt Nagy was going to look to Trey Burton to be used in a role similar to ‘Travis Kelce…’
No really, the Travis Kelce comparisons can slow down. Burton’s preseason Average Draft Position was rising rapidly and a lot of it was due to horrible, horrible soundbites; Trey Burton was coming in hot after a Superbowl win and with a memorable Touchdown pass to Nick Foles launching him into a hardcore Eagles fanbase’s folklore. Burton, then a Free Agent was presented with an opportunity at the right time and place; and money. Burton was flying up the ‘ADP’ rankings with his move to Chicago and his bags were packed with hype. The innuendo and cliches of ‘he will be our Travis Kelce’ and ‘follow the money, he is in for a huge workload’ were ripe, and had Fantasy Drafters losing their minds. Imagine being able to wait until the double-digit rounds to potentially get a guy who could have a ‘Kelce’ type season? Well, there were 2 things wrong with that:
1) Burton didn’t go in the double-digit rounds, he went at the back end of the 6th Round (6.10 or the sixth Tight End off the board, 71st Overall). A guy in his 5th year as a Pro with a total of 63 Career Receptions prior to the year starting got an irrational upgrade boost to his ‘ADP’ due to his new surroundings, new coaching staff and new opportunity to carve out an every-down role as the teams starting Tight End.
2) Burton did not have a ‘Kelce’ type season in 2018. In fact, Kelce had next to nearly double the season totals that Burton had. Kelce had 150 Targets to Burton’s 76, Kelce had 103 Receptions to Burton’s 54, Kelce had 10 Touchdowns to Burton’s 6, and Kelce had 1336 Yards to Burton’s 569. Now I get that Patrick Mahomes is a different animal to Mitchell Trubisky, but Chicago did chase the former Chiefs play caller in Matt Nagy and grabbing Trey Burton was one of the first things he did and was fairly adamant about the role Burton should carve out. He was wrong, ergo we were fooled.
The opportunity and current competition for Targets were up for grabs with a fairly new look Offense: The 2017 Chicago Bears saw a fair bit of turnover with a few familiar faces left around. Adam Shaheen who was a 2017 Rookie Tight End (who had the Draft Capitol) was set to see an uptick in work except for injuries had pretty much dogged his year. Tarik Cohen was touted to be a breakout star and see a Kareem Hunt type workload (there’s that preseason hype/narrative again!) in passing downs and Jordan Howard, quite frankly had the rockets strapped to him (again) and was slated to be the workhorse with this new ability to ‘catch a ball in the backfield’ all of a sudden. Then the Bears hit Free Agency, and along with Trey Burton, the Bears snatched top recruit Allen Robinson and the crafty Taylor Gabriel along with Drafting slot Receiver Anthony Miller. They wanted to give Trubisky weapons – and they did. But Taylor Gabriel, outside of a solid season in Atlanta a few years ago had been quiet, and Robinson was coming back from a major knee injury – there was a stack of potential on paper but a fair bit on unknown also.
Burton, at the end of the season, saw 15.89% of Trubisky’s Target Share (tied for 3rd most in the team with Tarik Cohen) and was 3rd in the team for Receiving Yards with 541. He was tied with Anthony Miller for Touchdowns however with 6 each. But what did all that say about his Quarterback? It was a mixed bag really, for me. Although he only played 14 games this season, Trubisky ranked 19th Overall for Pass Attempts and was 15th Overall for Touchdowns with 25 – both were finishing positions were behind Rookie Baker Mayfield who also played 14 games with 27 Touchdowns off 487 Pass Attempts. And was 14th Overall for Completion Percentage at 66.6% and was also behind Dak Prescott who had next to nearly no one to throw it to for half the year. Trubisky was also tied for 5th Overall with the most Interceptions with 12, alongside a guy called Patrick Mahomes, who also had 146 more Passing Attempts than Trubisky in a few more games played too.
As I said, it was a bit of a mixed bag from Trubisky, but there was a lot of visible growth in a really newly put together team.
You and what army? In Seattle, it was only Doug Baldwin and an inconsistent Tyler Lockett, in Green Bay there was an emerging run game, Davante Adams, Randall Cobb and a breakout coming from either Geronimo Allison or the three Rookies who were drafted: In 2015, while sustaining a fairly horrific injury Jimmy Graham in 11 games for Seattle had a better season than what he did fully healthy in Green Bay. That same 2015 Seattle team had Marshawn Lynch, Doug Baldwin, Jermaine Kearse, Tyler Lockett (who was a Rookie). That team ultimately went on to lose to Carolina in the Divisional Round of the Playoffs. Going back to 2015, Graham had been a part of teams (including his days in New Orleans, I haven’t forgotten that either) that were rich with elite talent. Being in a team as good and as talented as this year’s Green Bay Packers should not be any reason for Graham to not produce. Any reservations prior to the season starting about Graham not fitting in because of surrounding talent should have been squashed.
Graham’s Targets and Yards had dropped off in Seattle, and he now arrived at a team that wasn’t really a team that exploited the role outside of Jermichael Finlay some time ago: Seattle really adapted the way Graham was used in the two years prior to his departure. In 2016, Graham had punched over 900 yards, with 6 Touchdowns to boot (prior to his season his career average was 8.6 Touchdowns a season). In 2017 his yards dropped significantly, but his Touchdowns jumped up to 10 for the year. Over that two year span, Graham despite the variance in performance and usage was still the back-to-back Overall Tight End 4 (2016 he had 156.8 points and in 2017 with 142.5 points). Even though the yards fell away in 2017, 27% of his Targets were in the Red Zone, which he converted a third of which for Touchdowns. That’s mental, but it’s what he can provide. Being 6’7 and 265lbs can have it’s advantages, if you choose to exploit them.
Value; off the back of a 10 Touchdown season, Graham in a new team, with an offense that has plenty of skill-position players he isn’t the focal point he is used to being, which makes his 5th round command makes everyone apprehensive: This for me, should have been the priority of everyone’s main concern. Positive Regression was due in the Touchdown department, and we had seen the yards gained start to decline. If he hit his ‘peak’ for Touchdowns in a team he had been at for a few years (the first time he had over 10 Touchdowns since his last season in New Orleans), why did we think that was manageable in a team that had plenty of talented players and a history of not utilizing the Tight End like others had? My guess is that when the ‘Big 3’ came off the board we panicked and grabbed the best player available – which more often than not was Jimmy Graham. To put this in perspective (and no disrespect to any of these guys), which Receiver would you have taken instead? In the 5th Round, there was Golden Tate, Brandin Cooks, Marquise Goodwin, and Marvin Jones – only Cooks jumped up in overall value, Tate got traded and the other two were either injured or absent. In the 6th Round, there was Greg Olsen, Corey Davis, Emmanuel Sanders, Julian Edelman, and Trey Burton. It is easy to make the case for any one of these guys. It was even easier to make the case for Jimmy Graham after the top players at his position had already gone. I don’t believe now (in hindsight) that when we were drafting Graham we thought about ‘The Cons’ as aggressively as we should have. We had beer goggles on. Everything looked too good.
Here is what we know. Trubisky got better this year (thank god, let’s kill off any memory of a John Fox Bears outfit) and spread the ball about. Burton wasn’t a forgotten member of their attack and, at worst he still delivered you a Top 10 Fantasy season as the 7th Overall amongst Tight Ends. It was a quiet end of the season and that, you have to hope, is something they look at and try to fix heading into 2019. A lot of the issues with Burton, I feel, were due to what was projected for him and onto him leading into the year. I think (as I say in the Pros) we got what was probably a sign of what’s to come more often than not. I’m not sure it gets worse, I just need to see more to believe it can be better.
By the time the first quarter of the year (Weeks 1-4) was over, Jimmy Graham was already outside the Top 12 Tight Ends of the year. In the second quarter of the season (Weeks 5-8), he was still outside the Top 12 Tight Ends. In the third quarter of the year (Weeks 9-12), it was the same story, just like it was the story in the last quarter of the year (Weeks 13-17. Outside of two games where Graham scored, he gave you pretty much minimal to nothing each week. And for a 5th Round ADP, I just don’t believe you were a happy camper this year. Maybe the Receptions could have been better, maybe a couple more Touchdowns, maybe you could justify having a look at Graham again next season. But with a Coaching change and new philosophy at hand, I’m not sure that Graham will figure into a stack of future plans for the Packers.
WAY TO EARLY 2019 BOLD PREDICTIONS
Trey Burton: Honestly? It will be pretty much the same thing, maybe, I guess. Add an extra 7 Yards Per Game and maybe another Touchdown. That’s the most optimistic Prediction I can give you for Trey Burton in 2019. I think He is what he is at this point.
Jimmy Graham: In a twist of events, the Green Bay Packers use Jimmy Graham in a trade with the Pittsburgh Steelers (with Future Draft Picks) for Antonio Brown.
Remember Will Dissly?
In Weeks 3 and 4 of the 2018 season, Will Dissly had 4 Targets for 2 Receptions and 9 yards. Why I didn’t mention it above? We know how his first month statistically looked overall but when you put them into 2-week splits they tell a very different story. Will Dissly for the first few weeks of the season was the positional darling and gave us all hope that there was depth to a Fantasy position that looked a tad weak. But we tend to love small sample sizes and for the sake of making myself feel sick, in the month that he did play, Dissly would have finished with 56-32-642-8 TDS. That would have been 128.2 points in a Half Point Per Reception / 6 Points Per Touchdown scoring League. And that would have been good to end up the Tight End 6 overall for the year jumping Austin Hooper (127.5) and Trey Burton (120.1). Make of that what you will. So in regards to small sample sizes and ‘extrapolated projections’ please use this example of Will Dissly to mellow you out.
There were commonalities between Graham and Burton. Both had a change of team. Both had a 5th to 6th Round ADP Value. And both were touted to change the outlook of their team’s Offenses. Both, I feel it is safe to say (in Fantasy context) underwhelmed and failed you. And it’s not like Jimmy Graham or Trey Burton weren’t getting service through the year. In no way possible would you ever believe that Jimmy Graham had over 600 yards this year. His season was that quiet you’d think I was lying. But if I told you that at the start of the year – with Aaron Rodgers – he would finish with only TWO Touchdowns would you have believed me? Probably not. And you probably wouldn’t talk to me again.
I wouldn’t be surprised (even though it may be costly) if the Packers move on from Graham. And I wouldn’t be surprised to see Burton give you, maybe, the same to a similar season he gave you this year. Neither are inspiring selections heading into 2019 and dare I say it, you may be better off looking elsewhere. Not at that price that they are commanding in a position that is struggling.
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