Okay, most likely not. Did I just clickbait you? To some extent I did. However, there is a highly realistic chance that Chark blows his current ADP out of the water and builds on his impressive 2019 campaign to insert himself into the elite WR tier beside the likes of Tyreek Hill and Chris Godwin. There’s always a few guys every year that the fantasy world is in love with. Whether it’s because of a crazy end-of-the-year run the previous season, an opinion backed up by advanced stats that point to progression, or just a gut feeling. Last year we had Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, and Chris Godwin. This year, the lead dogs seem to be Miles Sanders, Hayden Hurst, and you guessed it, DJ Chark. And rightfully so in Chark’s defense. Chark’s second year in the league saw him post 73 receptions on 118 targets that resulted in 1,008 yards and eight trips to the endzone. All of this in the midst of Nick Foles losing his starting job after an injury earlier in the preseason, right on the heels of signing a lucrative contract. While at the helm, Minshew was serviceable. Chark found an instant connection with Minshew that saw him receive six touchdowns in the first half of the season before Minshew missed some weeks with an injury. Coming into 2020, with Minshew leading the team in his second year, why can’t Chark have an even better season than the last? It’s almost too good to be true, but I’ll show you why it’s not.
The Deep Ball
This section duos as a Gardner Minshew hype train as well. Last season, PFF ranked Minshew as the 3rd best deep-ball thrower in the entire league. He completed 49% of his deep passes and possessed a passer rating of 129.0 on such throws. Oh, and out of all 49 deep throws, not a single one of those was deemed as “turnover-worthy.” It’s a literal match made in heaven when pairing that with a 6’4″ go-up-and-get-it receiver that runs a 4.34 40. Chark excels in pass attempts 15+ yards down the field. So much so that he was arguably the best in the league last year on such throws.
The first graph is pretty self-explanatory, as it depicts catch rate down the field. The gold line represents the league’s average from 2009-2016 against Chark’s catch rate from his 2019 season. From 10 yards past the line of scrimmage in, Chark represents a receiver who is sitting right at the league’s average in that aspect. From 10 yards on, however, Chark is above the league’s average by a good margin, with a huge jump between 20-35 yards down the field. Chark’s peak in that downfield range comes around the 25-yard mark, where his catch rate sits at just under 55%.
The second graph shows Chark’s RACR compared to yards down the field. RACR, or Reciever Air Conversion Ratio, is an advanced metric that combines catch rate and yards after the catch into one and shows how efficient that receiver is at that depth of target down the field. This graph coincides with the first one trend-wise, but the peak actually comes even farther down the field for Chark using this metric. Chark is most efficient about 30 yards down the field even though his highest deep ball catch rate is five yards back. Regardless, Chark is well above the league average from that 20-32 yard mark, which should bode well for him again this season when paired with Minshew’s elite deep-ball efficiency. (All charts found on https://airyards.com/)
3rd Down
When it comes to third down for the Jaguars, what do they look to do when its 3rd-and-4+yards? Oh yeah, they target that DJ Chark dude. Between 3rd-and-4 to 3rd-and-10 last season, Chark was targeted 26 times, which was the most on the team. Although the success rates indicated on the graphic are both below 50%, knowing that Chark was targeting and trusted the most in that situation is a big step for a young receiver who is just coming into his third season. In addition to this, Chark saw 13 deep targets last year on 3rd down along with his short/intermediate work.
Of those 13 targets, he gained 163 yards and 276 yards total on all 3rd down receptions. Of these 3rd-down deep throws, Chark is most proficient on the right side of the formation, where he caught 66.67% of passes on the right that traveled at least 10 yards. It’s fairly easy to assume that Chark will find himself lined up on the outside more this season after Jacksonville drafted Laviska Shenault in April, who is more of a slot-type receiver. Chark lined up in the slot 21.2% of the time last year, according to PlayerProfiler, so as that number decreases, his outside numbers, especially on the right side, should see a significant increase.
2020 Outlook
Chark finished 2019 as the 16th ranked receiver in Half-PPR formats, while missing a game. To me, his ceiling could be a top-five receiver this year, with a large portion of those points coming from an uptick in receiving yards. Having just eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark last year, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to project Char pushing the 1,250-1,300 yard mark. The eight touchdowns that he caught is the number that is the most likely to decrease, as that was good for ninth in the league last year. I’m not saying it will decrease, just that touchdowns are more inconsistent from year to year than yards, ala Julio Jones. With how bad Jacksonville’s defense is projected to be also, that will force Minshew to air the ball out as well. Chark’s 73 receptions from last year are another aspect that I expect to see an increase. Jacksonville’s WR1 should be primed for a monster year in 2020.
My Projection:Â 86 Receptions on 132 Targets, 1,283 Yards, 7 Touchdowns For more, follow me on Twitter @TB24FF
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