One of the hardest things for a fantasy football owner is when they draft a player and they do not live up to their potential. These players can single-handedly ruin a fantasy season. If you can try and see the signs of a potential bust before they happen it can save you a lot of disappointment. The players in this list are players that may still produce, but simply not live up to their current ADP.
Quarterback
Deshaun Watson
ADP 4.10
Deshaun Watson took the NFL world by storm when he took over the job from Tom Savage last season. He showed tremendous fantasy value due to his big arm and elite running ability. After seven starts Watsons amazing rookie season came to an abrupt end when he tore his ACL. The hype of last season has clearly transferred over to this season as he is coming off the board at 4.10 and as QB2 overall. That to me is a scary price to pay for a quarterback who now how has seven games worth of film on him and a repaired ACL. I know that ACLs have become an injury that players have come back from strongly in recent years, but you would have to expect the Texans to want to take care of their young star much better and limit him to as a few rushing chances as possible. That will not come easily though due to the fact of how bad the Texans offensive line is, it is arguably one of the worst in the league. This will force Watson out of the pocket often and force him to take an abundance of unnecessary contact. Another thing to look at from last season was his poor completion percentage of right around 62 percent. This would rank in the lower portion of the league last season. Though completion percentage does not have any major impact on a quarterbacks fantasy success (i.e. Carson Wentz 2017), I do find it a tough road for Watson to live up to his QB2 overall price tag, due to lack of an offensive line and a poor completion percentage last season.
Running Back
LeSean McCoy
ADP 3.04 (RB16)
It has been a tough offseason for LeSean McCoy with some allegations that could possibly lead to suspension and three of the best Bills linemen departing from the team. McCoy had the lowest YPA in his career last season, but he still had a very good fantasy season. I believe that was due to the fact that defensive coordinators respected Tyrod Taylor as a factor on the ground and passing the ball. They also had a respectable offensive line last season. However, this season the Bills quarterback situation is messy and have lost their three best linemen, so most defensive coordinators will force the ball into the quarterbacks’ hands and stack the box against McCoy. McCoy is one of the only real fantasy relevant players on this team, and that will make it tough for him to finish as the RB16.
Wide Receiver
Tyreek Hill
ADP 3.08 (WR13)
Tyreek Hill has proved to be one of the most explosive players in the NFL for the past two years. He is a big play factor whenever he touches the ball. With a new quarterback in Patrick Mahomes taking over this season for Kansas City, Hill will have to find a connection with the young quarterback. The Chiefs also added another deep target this offseason, signing Sammy Watkins. Watkins will take away some of Hills deep target opportunities, and will hinder Hills offensive output. There are a lot of mouths to feed in Kansas City and with a young quarterback taking over, I see growing pains for Tyreek Hill. I do not believe it will be permanent but if you can stay away from Hill this season, or can get him for a better price, that would be optimal because I don’t believe he gets to the WR13 he is currently being drafted at.
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