To say that the defending Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos have had a rough off-season would be putting it mildly. They were prepared for future Hall-of-Famer Peyton Manning‘s anticipated retirement but it’s been a roller coaster for the Broncos regarding their other free agents. Brock Osweiler was expected to be the Broncos quarterback of the future after Manning’s retirement. Osweiler was scheduled to become a free agent but it was widely assumed the two sides would come to an agreement. However, once free agency hit, Osweiler bolted to Houston to join the Texans on a monster deal. The Texans overpaid for Osweiler, who has yet to prove himself in the NFL, and the Broncos were smart in letting him walk. Losing him, however, meant the Broncos were left without a quarterback in 2016. They signed QB Mark Sanchez and drafted Paxton Lynch in the first round but that’s not what the Broncos were expecting. Later on, the Broncos started losing guys on their top-rated defense. Malik Jackson and Danny Trevathan inked their big paydays with the Jacksonville Jaguars and Chicago Bears, respectively. While it’s impossible to hold onto everybody from such a great defense that’s not exactly something you’d expect to see from the defending champs.
Prior to free agency, the Broncos hit their Super Bowl MVP and all-around stud Von Miller with the franchise tag in anticipation that a long-term deal could get done. Miller, however, still has yet to sign the one-year tender that would pay him roughly $14.1 million this season. The Carolina Panthers did the same thing roughly around the same time with their All-Pro cornerback, Josh Norman. Both players helped lead their respective teams to the Super Bowl and it was expected both would reach lucrative deals to stay where they are. As we all know, however, it hasn’t panned out that way to this point. The Panthers relinquished their franchise tag on Norman after it was evident that a deal would not be reached, making Norman an unrestricted free agent. A day later Norman signed a deal with the Washington Redskins. Is it possible we see a similar situation with Miller?
This week, the Broncos offered Miller a six-year, $114.5 million deal to stay in Denver. He turned it down. The deal would’ve made Miller the highest paid player in the league among non-quarterbacks, slightly ahead of Ndamukong Suh‘s deal with Miami. Miller’s reasoning to turn down the offer pointed to the guaranteed money of the deal. Had he signed the deal, Miller would’ve received $38.5 million guaranteed for the first two seasons with a $1.3 million workout bonus. To compare, Suh’s contract guarantees him nearly $50 million the first two seasons and just under $60 million guaranteed throughout. Marcell Dareus leads all non-quarterbacks with $60 million guaranteed in his $96 million contract he signed with Buffalo last season. Miller’s argument is that he’s okay with the overall money but notes that he could be cut after just two seasons.
Miller originally stated earlier this week that talks were progressing but that quickly changed with his rejection and now there is talk that Miller could sit out the entire season in 2016. For some reason, the Broncos set a 10 p.m. deadline this past Tuesday to get a deal done with Miller and his agent. The deadline was self-imposed since the NFL allows teams until July 15 to reach long-term deals with franchised players. The Broncos stated the deadline was in order for Miller to attend Denver’s minicamp. The deadline expired though like many others before them and the Broncos will continue to search for ways to get a deal done.
The odds of Miller getting cut this year like Norman was are very slim even if a deal is not reached. The first option would be for Miller to sign the one-year tender but that would allow Denver to slap him with the exclusive franchise tag again next season. His other option would be to sit out the entire season in 2016 and hope to make up for the lost income next year. Should he go that route, Miller would essentially become a restricted free agent, allowing other teams to offer Miller deals that Denver may not match.
As a fan, it’s tough to watch a player turn down an excess of $100 million but to NFL players it’s really all about the guaranteed money and in terms of the market, Miller is more deserving than the $38.5 million he’s been offered. Miller and his agent pointed to other free agent deals like Suh’s, former teammate Jackson ($42 million guaranteed), and Olivier Vernon‘s deal ($52.5 million guaranteed) as reasoning for Miller’s request. None of those players have near the numbers as Miller. Miller has 60 sacks recorded in his five-year career. The next closest person on this list is Suh with 42, who entered the league the year previous of Miller.
General manager John Elway and the Broncos staff remain confident that a deal can be reached but they still have a lot on their plate that doesn’t involve Miller. The Broncos are also looking for new contracts with Emmanuel Sanders, who is entering the final year of his current deal, and Brandon Marshall, who is a restricted free agent. They did match Miami’s offer on restricted free agent C.J. Anderson worth $18 million over four years but had the Broncos played that differently they could have had Anderson this season for much cheaper. With deals still to be made, it looks as though the Broncos could use all the help that they can get financially.
The Broncos can ill afford to lose Miller if their dreams of repeating as champions is going to come to fruition. Miller, almost single-handedly, defeated the Panther in Super Bowl 50 with his two forced fumbles that led to touchdowns. Even Manning himself admitted on numerous occasions that the defense is the reason they got there, noting his own regression in 2015. Miller is well-known as the leader of this defense and the Broncos will need him to have any chance of a repeat. The Broncos have already lost some impact players this off-season. Should Miller elect to sit out the season, the Broncos will not only have an unlikely shot at the Super Bowl but they could miss out on the playoffs altogether.
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