Super Bowl or Toilet Bowl: The Destiny of your Fantasy Football Team

If you’re scratching your head week after week wondering why your fantasy football team just isn’t meeting draft day expectations, you are not alone.  The good news is, there’s still hope. Even if you’re sitting at 3-6 there are plenty of weeks left to make the playoffs but whether you make to the Super Bowl or Toilet Bowl depends on one thing: How you manage your team week-to-week from now until the end.

I always laugh when the day after the draft, owners stalk the waiver wire to see what they missed.  I know draft time pressure can feel like taking the Bar Exam or Medical College Admission Test but those owners who over think their picks immediately after the draft are doomed from the start.  Unless your elite top pick or quarterback goes down early, there’s no reason to shop the wire until bye weeks roll around.  That being said, you idiots who draft with your hearts instead of your heads are also destined for the Toilet Bowl.  I don’t care if you’ve been a Washington Redskins fan your whole life, there is no reason a sane person would draft any Redskin except perhaps tight end Jordan Reed, in the last round.

To say the NFL has been unpredictable in 2016 would be an understatement.  Injuries to key players, underperformance by notable stars and outstanding performances by rookies has made for an exciting yet, frustrating season for fantasy team owners.  Owners who picked Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver, Antonio Brown, with the first pick of the draft are no doubt disappointed by his lack of production.  Don’t get me wrong, Brown routinely manages double-digit fantasy points but the Steelers are out of sync, most recently losing to a less than stellar Baltimore Ravens defense.  Mike Evans, WR for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Amari Cooper, WR for the Oakland Raiders are often more productive and were drafted in the third or fourth round of most drafts.

The key to sailing your way to the Super Bowl is to strategically manage the bye weeks from here on out. If you have a top performer on a bye and are frantically looking to pick up a one week scrap, don’t sweat it.  There is always a team playing against the Cleveland Browns.  Looking at week 10, the Indianapolis Colts and Andrew Luck are on a bye.  Luck is owned in practically 100% of leagues and owners are frantically wondering what to do in week 10.  If your backup is someone like Kirk Cousins or Blake Bortles, you might want to think twice before starting these guys in week 10.  Cousins has been racking up the yardage but is going against a tough Minnesota defense in week 10.  Despite three losses in a row, opposing teams against the Vikings are averaging only about 15 points per game so while Cousins has been killing it in yardage, this is a very risky start.  Bortles, another backup QB on many rosters is facing the Texans in week 10.  This matchup is simply too unpredictable to be worth the risk.  Yes, Bortles could light it up at home against Houston but then again, he may not and at 2-6, the Jags are not an offensive force to bank on.

So let’s circle back to my original point, there’s always someone playing the Browns.  Cleveland’s defense is averaging only 2 fantasy points a week and is giving up over 30 points to opposing offenses on a routine basis. In week 10 the Browns travel to Baltimore to take on Flacco and the Ravens.  There’s a good chance Flacco is a free agent just waiting for his chance.  The matchup at home against the Browns is too good to pass up.  If you need a backup QB in week 10, Flacco is definitely worth a look.  Similarly, if Ravens running back, Terrence West is available, he is a good filler for Latavious Murray or LeSean McCoy, also on byes in week 10.

Looking ahead at week 11, Matt Ryan owners are planning for the void at quarterback when the Atlanta Falcons are on a bye.  Here’s a week where Redskin’s QB Kirk Cousins could be a valuable pick up.  The Redskins are away against the Packers and while the Packers are pretty solid against the run guess what? The Skins don’t run the ball.  Cousins could have another huge passing game with big yardage and sure, mucho yardage means at least one interception, but hey, you can’t have your cheese and eat it too.

Jules Rules:  Bottom line, don’t always go with the best backup on paper.  Smart owners manage bye weeks down the stretch based on match ups not based on whose name is on the back of their favorite jersey.

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Jules Rules

Football season is back and so is Jules Rules! I'm a die hard Broncos fan and will likely never write anything positive about the Patriots or Redskins. Deal with it.

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