Swing for the Fences: DFS Home Run Predictions (June 14)

Solid night for my HR predictions last night with two homers including one from my Longshot pick, Adonis Garcia. Tonight we have a game at Coors Field but I will limit my exposure to that game so I can give some other strong home run options for tonight’s slate.

Also, as I have been writing this article, I have found that I could just call out high-priced home run hitters every night but I am trying to give a nice mix of high-priced and value hitters that you could actually build a full lineup with on FanDuel and still get a medium-priced pitcher to fill out your roster if you want to give it a try in GPPs.

So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…

C – Tyler Flowers (ATL) – Went with the Braves catcher last night but A.J. Pierzynski didn’t come through. I am going back to the Braves catcher again tonight with Flowers facing lefty Brandon Finnegan who has given up 1.58 HR/9 to righties this season.

1B – Adrian Gonzalez (LAD) – Gonzalez gets a favorable park adjustment playing in Arizona tonight against Diamondbacks rookie righty Archie Bradley. Bradley has given up three home runs in two home starts this season while Gonzalez has hit five out of his six homers against righties this season.

2B – Starlin Castro (NYY) – Castro is on his way to a career-high in homers this season with nine so far and has a .195 ISO against lefties. Tonight he will face lefty Jorge De La Rosa at Coors Field and his reasonable priced.

SS – Corey Seager (LAD) – Seager seems to hit home runs in bunches this season with five homers over a three-game stretch earlier this month and four over a five-game stretch in May. Seager hit a long ball last night and with a good matchup in a hitter-friendly ballpark, he could hit one again tonight.

3B – Kris Bryant (CHC) – Bryant has a career .245 ISO against lefties and will face Nationals lefty Gio Gonzalez who has allowed all eight of his homers this season to righties.

OF – Carlos Gonzalez (COL) – Gonzalez has been on a tear at home over his last two home stands with six homers in his last nine games. Tuesday he will face Yankees righty Nathan Eovaldi who has allowed a .384 wOBA and 1.75 HR/9 to lefties this season.

OF – Khris Davis (OAK) – Davis is another hitter who is very streaky and usually hits home runs in bunches. Davis hit a homer last night off a lefty and gets to face another lefty tonight with the Rangers Martin Perez taking the mound who Davis has gone 2-for-2 with a homer against this season.

OF – Corey Dickerson (TB) – Dickerson has struggled this season batting just .194 but does have 11 homers all against righties. He will face righty Taijuan Walker tonight who has struggled on the road this season with a 5.00 ERA and has allowed 1.88 HR/9 to lefties.

Longshot – Jeff Francoeur (ATL) Almost went with Adonis Garcia again since it worked so well yesterday but then I came across Francoeur who is even a better option hitting against lefty Brandon Finnegan and the woeful Reds bullpen.

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Monday’s Results

Pos Name HR FD Pts
C A.J. Pierzynski 0 3.0
1B Albert Pujols 0 0.0
2B Brett Lawrie 0 19.0
SS Marcus Semien 0 21.7
3B Danny Valencia 0 19.1
OF Matt Kemp 1 24.7
OF Ian Desmond 0 0.0
OF J.D. Martinez 0 25.0
Longshot Adonis Garcia 1 28.2

Season Results

Pos Picks HR HR Rate Avg FD Pts
C 8 3 37.5% 12.54
1B 6 0 0.0% 4.20
2B 8 0 0.0% 9.98
SS 7 1 14.3% 12.06
3B 7 2 28.6% 17.43
OF 22 5 22.7% 14.07
Longshot 4 2 50.0% 16.45
Total 62 13 21.0% 12.69

If you have any suggestions or feedback for the article, follow me and hit me up on Twitter @Rotopilot

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Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

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