Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (4/10)

Introduction

My lineup last Friday had a monster night with five home runs and a total of 196.4 FanDuel points from the eight hitters excluding the longshot pick. If I would have picked the right pitcher to include with the lineup it could have been a very profitable night. Let’s see if we can keep the homers going (and pick the right pitcher) on Tuesday’s 12-game slate.

Prices included for FanDuel and DraftKings to help find where the best value may be and positions are based on FanDuel.

So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…

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Lineup

C – Brian McCann (HOU) (FanDuel: $2,900 / DraftKings: $3,400) – McCann has crushed Jake Odorizzi in his career going 13-for-28 with three home runs.

1B – Chris Davis (BAL) (FanDuel: $2,300 / DraftKings: $3,000) – Another BvP special with Davis who has taken Aaron Sanchez deep four times in 21 career at-bats.

2B – Zack Cozart (LAA) (FanDuel: $3,800 / DraftKings: $4,500) – Cozart will face lefty Martin Perez who allowed 1.34 HR/9 to righties at home last season, while Cozart posted a .296 ISO against southpaws last season.

3B – Nolan Arenado (COL) (FanDuel: $5,400 / DraftKings: $5,500) – Truth be told Arenado would have been on my list last night also. He fell flat yesterday so look for a bounce-back performance against another lefty at Coors Field tonight.

SS – Paul DeJong (STL) (FanDuel: $3,100 / DraftKings: $3,900) – DeJong has flashed great power early in his career which includes a .337 ISO against lefties and will face Brewers’ left-hander Brent Suter.

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OF – Bryce Harper (WAS) (FanDuel: $5,400 / DraftKings: $5,600) – Much like Arenado, Harper also would have been on my list last night against Julio Teheran. While others might shy away from using Harper after the disappointing outcome, I’ll hop right back on in another good matchup against righty Mike Foltynewicz who has allowed 1.63 HR/9 to lefties in his career.

OF – Justin Upton (LAA) (FanDuel: $3,900 / DraftKings: $4,300) – Upton may be my favorite play on this entire list. He gets a park upgrade in Texas while facing lefty Perez (1.34 HR/9 at home to righties). Meanwhile, Upton posted a massive .384 ISO against lefties last year and is 3-for-5 with a homer off Perez in his career.

OF – Yoenis Cespedes (NYM) (FanDuel: $3,800 / DraftKings: $4,800) – Cespedes has three homers through his first nine games this season and will face a young lefty in Caleb Smith who has allowed five homers (2.23 HR/9) to righties through his first 27 big league innings.

Longshot – Hunter Renfroe (SD) (FanDuel: $2,600 / DraftKings: $3,600) – Not sure if it is a longshot to recommend a power-hitting slugger at Coors Field but his low salary allows it. Renfroe has smashed lefties with a .368 ISO so far in his career and will face Rockies’ left-hander Tyler Anderson who has allowed 1.40 HR/9 to righties in his career.

Cheap Pitching options
FanDuel – Aaron Sanchez ($6,700), Felix Hernandez ($6,200)
DraftKings – Aaron Nola ($8,200), Aaron Sanchez ($7,500), Hyun-Jin Ryu ($6,800)

Results – Friday, April 6

Pos Name HR FD Pts
C Russell Martin 1 34.7
1B Matt Olson 1 24.9
2B Roughned Odor 0 12.2
3B Josh Donaldson 0 15.9
SS Manny Machado 2 52.6
OF Aaron Judge 0 18.5
OF Kyle Schwarber 0 6.2
OF Shin-soo Choo 1 31.4
Longshot Kendrys Morales 0 6.5

 

Results – Overall

Pos Picks HR HR Rate Avg FD Pts
C 3 2 66.7% 26.03
1B 3 1 33.3% 9.30
2B 3 0 0.0% 4.07
SS 3 2 66.7% 29.77
3B 3 0 0.0% 16.77
OF 9 2 22.2% 14.49
Longshot 3 0 0.0% 7.23
Total 27 7 25.9% 15.18

 

If you have any suggestions or feedback for the article, follow me and hit me up on Twitter @Rotopilot

 

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Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

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