Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (4/12)

Introduction

Only one long ball from my Tuesday lineup which of course came from my “longshot” pick of the underpriced Hunter Renfroe playing at Coors Field. Thursday’s main slate is only five games (four on DraftKings) so the pickings are slim. As a result, there are a lot of obvious plays including a full four-man stack of Twins.

Prices included for FanDuel and DraftKings to help find where the best value may be and positions are based on FanDuel.

So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…

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Lineup

C – Gary Sanchez (NYY) (FanDuel: $3,400 / DraftKings: $4,100) – Sanchez hit two bombs yesterday and has been known to get on a hot streak. With so few options at catcher on a small slate, ride the hot bat.

1B – Lucas Duda (KC) (FanDuel: $2,900 / DraftKings: $3,500) – Warm weather in KC with the wind blowing out. Duda posted a .298 ISO against righties last season and will face Angels’ right-hander Nick Tropeano making his first big league start since 2016.

2B – Brian Dozier (MIN) (FanDuel: $4,100 / DraftKings: $4,400) – Not many HR hitting option at 2B on the short slate, so Dozier is the obvious choice. He has already hit four homers this season (all off righties) and had a .211 ISO against righties at home last season.

3B – Mike Moustakas (KC) (FanDuel: $3,700 / DraftKings: $4,100) – Another Royals’ left-handed power bat to take advantage of the good hitting conditions in KC against a righty. Moustakas has also been on fire with five straight multi-hit games including two homers during the streak.

SS – Trea Turner (WAS) (FanDuel: $4,200 / DraftKings: $4,800) – The pick of Turner isn’t necessarily that I think he will hit a home run on Thursday but more because I think he will be the most productive point producer at the position. He gets a good hitting environment with the wind blowing out and is 3-for-5 with a homer off opposing pitcher Chad Bettis in his career.

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OF – Bryce Harper (WAS) (FanDuel: $5,400 / DraftKings: $5,800) – Harper will just need to elevate a couple pitches to take advantage of his power and the wind blowing out in DC. A career .260 ISO at home against righties doesn’t hurt either.

OF – Eddie Rosario (MIN) (FanDuel: $2,500 / DraftKings: $2,900) – Rosario hit 19 of his 27 homers last season at home against a righty. He will be at home against right-hander Lucas Giolito who has allowed 1.88 HR/9 to left-handed hitters so far in his career.

OF – Max Kepler (MIN) (FanDuel: $2,300 / DraftKings: $3,000) – Kepler is coming off a two-homer game and has posted a .216 ISO at home against righties in his career.

Longshot – Logan Morrison (MIN) (FanDuel: $2,200 / DraftKings: $3,000) – Morrison is still looking for his first home run with the Twins and it could come tonight against a HR-prone righty. LoMo hit 32 of his 38 home runs last season off righties.

Cheap Pitching options
FanDuel – Ian Kennedy ($7,700), Chris Stratton ($6,000)
DraftKings – Ian Kennedy ($7,200), no other option I like so I’d try to get up to Jose Berrios ($11,000)

Results – Tuesday, April 10

Pos Name HR FD Pts
C Brian McCann 0 0.0
1B Chris Davis 0 3.0
2B Zack Cozart 0 6.2
3B Nolan Arenado 0 12.0
SS Pual DeJong 0 6.2
OF Bryce Harper 0 6.2
OF Justin Upton 0 21.9
OF Yoenis Cespedes 0 13.0
Longshot Hunter Renfroe 1 25.7

 

Overall Results

Pos Picks HR HR Rate Avg FD Pts
C 4 2 50.0% 19.53
1B 4 1 25.0% 7.73
2B 4 0 0.0% 4.60
SS 4 2 50.0% 23.88
3B 4 0 0.0% 15.58
OF 12 2 16.7% 14.29
Longshot 4 1 25.0% 11.85
Total 36 8 22.2% 14.00

 

If you have any suggestions or feedback for the article, follow me and hit me up on Twitter @Rotopilot

 

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Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

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