Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (4/19)

Introduction

Friday was the last Swing for the Fences I was able to publish and it didn’t go well with just one home run and only two hitters with more than 10 FanDuel points. We’ll try to get better on just a small five-game MLB slate on Thursday night which really limits our options when searching for dingers.

Prices included for FanDuel and DraftKings to help find where the best value may be and positions are based on FanDuel.

So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…

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Lineup

C – J.T. Realmuto (MIA) (FanDuel: $2,700 / DraftKings: $3,500) – Realmuto homered in his first game of the season and posted a .240 ISO on the road versus righties last season. He gets a favorable park adjustment playing in Milwaukee against righty Chase Anderson.

1B – Justin Bour (MIA) (FanDuel: $3,500 / DraftKings: $3,000) – Bour is 4-for-8 with a double and a home run off Anderson and put up a .252 ISO against right-handers last season.

2B – Ian Kinsler (LAA) (FanDuel: $3,700 / DraftKings: $4,100) – Kinsler is off to a fast start since returning from the DL with six hits including a home run over his last four games, posted a .261 ISO against lefties last season and will face Red Sox lefty Eduardo Rodriguez who allowed 1.29 HR/9 to righties last season.

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SS – Eduardo Nunez (BOS) (FanDuel: $3,400 / DraftKings: $3,800) – Nunez has six hits over his last four games including a double and a homer and had a .191 ISO on the road against righties last season.

3B – Rafael Devers (BOS) (FanDuel: $3,500 / DraftKings: $3,700) – Devers has homered in back-to-back games and will look for three straight against Angels’ righty Nick Tropeano who has allowed 1.32 HR/9 to lefties at home in his career.

OF – A.J. Pollock (ARI) (FanDuel: $3,200 / DraftKings: $4,700) – Pollock put up a .459 wOBA and .338 ISO at home versus lefties last season and will face Giants’ southpaw Ty Blach who has allowed 1.84 HR/9 to righties on the road during his career.

OF – Ryan Braun (MIL) (FanDuel: $3,100 / DraftKings: $4,500) – Assuming Braun is in the lineup, he is a good option at home against left-hander Dillon Peters who has allowed 3.48 HR/9 to righties on the road (granted in a small sample size 10+ innings).

OF – Jay Bruce (NYM) (FanDuel: $2,800 / DraftKings: $3,900) – I had to get one of the Mets’ left-handed bats on the list against righty Matt Wisler who has allowed 1.57 HR/9 to lefties in his career. Bruce is struggling but this could be a breakout spot at a reasonable salary.

Longshot – Jesus Aguilar (MIL) (FanDuel: $2,400 / DraftKings: $3,100) – If Braun doesn’t start then Aguilar might at a cheap price with a lot of power including a .223 ISO versus lefties last season.

Cheap Pitching options
FanDuel – Jameson Taillon ($9,300), Zack Greinke ($8,900)
DraftKings – Get either Taillon ($11,000) or Greinke ($10,600) and then Jake Arrieta ($7,600)

Results – Friday, April 13

Pos Name HR FD Pts
C Evan Gattis 0 3.0
1B Matt Olson 0 0.0
2B Ian Kinsler 0 30.9
3B Anthony Rendon 0 9.0
SS Corey Seager 0 6.5
OF Mike Trout 0 6.0
OF Giancarlo Stanton 0 0.0
OF Ryan Braun 1 22.2
Longshot Ryan Zimmerman 0 3.0

 

Overall Results

Pos Picks HR HR Rate Avg FD Pts
C 6 2 33.3% 16.27
1B 6 1 16.7% 6.73
2B 6 0 0.0% 10.87
SS 6 2 33.3% 17.00
3B 6 0 0.0% 13.92
OF 18 3 16.7% 11.59
Longshot 6 1 16.7% 8.90
Total 54 9 16.7% 12.05

 

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Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

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