Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (4/20)

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Introduction

Thursday’s home run list did fairly well with two long balls and four hitters with at least 18 FanDuel points. I’m coming right back on Friday night for a full 15-game MLB slate. I’m going to try to get this article out more often going forward by providing less detailed analysis of each player. Let’s start off the weekend right with some Friday night fireworks!

Prices included for FanDuel and DraftKings to help find where the best value may be and positions are based on FanDuel.

So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…

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Lineup

C – Gary Sanchez (NYY) (FanDuel: $3,900 / DraftKings: $4,700) – Four homers in 19 career at-bats against Marco Estrada.

1B – Joey Gallo (TEX) (FanDuel: $3,500 / DraftKings: $4,000) – I like the Rangers’ lefties, Gallo and Mazara going against righty Felix Hernandez who has a 10.24 ERA in road starts this season and gave up 1.69 HR/9 to lefties last season.

2B – Jason Kipnis (CLE) (FanDuel: $3,000 / DraftKings: $3,800)

SS – Manny Machado (BAL) (FanDuel: $4,700 / DraftKings: $5,000) – Machado has owned Trevor Bauer in his career going 8-for-12 with two doubles and three homers.

3B – Travis Shaw (MIL) (FanDuel: $3,600 / DraftKings: $3,800) – The Brewers offense could be heating up and the Marlins’ bullpen has allowed the 5th most HR/9 (1.40) this season.

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OF – Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) (FanDuel: $4,800 / DraftKings: $5,000) – Stanton has three homers and two doubles in 14 career at-bats against Estrada. Judge is also a good option. Yankees stack!

OF – Nelson Cruz (SEA) (FanDuel: $3,500 / DraftKings: $4,300) – Cruz is too cheap on both sites for a power-hitter with two-homer potential and a career .257 ISO against lefties.

OF – Nomar Mazara (TEX) (FanDuel: $2,800 / DraftKings: $3,400)

Longshot – Wilmer Flores (NYM) (FanDuel: $2,500 / DraftKings: $3,200) – Flores has a career .240 ISO against southpaws.

Cheap Pitching options
FanDuel – Sean Newcomb ($6,800), Michael Wacha ($6,600)
DraftKings – Chris Archer ($8,800), Sonny Gray ($7,700), Michael Wacha ($7,200)

Results – Thursday, April 20

Pos Name HR FD Pts
C J.T. Realmuto 0 0.0
1B Justin Bour 0 3.0
2B Ian Kinsler 0 3.0
3B Rafael Devers 0 19.0
SS Eduardo Nunez 0 0.0
OF A.J. Pollock 1 18.7
OF Ryan Braun 1 25.7
OF Jay Bruce 0 0.0
Longshot Jesus Aguilar 0 31.9

 

Overall Results

Pos Picks HR HR Rate Avg FD Pts
C 7 2 28.6% 13.94
1B 7 1 14.3% 6.20
2B 7 0 0.0% 9.74
SS 7 2 28.6% 14.57
3B 7 0 0.0% 14.64
OF 21 5 23.8% 12.05
Longshot 7 1 14.3% 12.19
Total 63 11 17.5% 11.94

 

 

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Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

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