Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (4/23)

Introduction

Friday was a good night with three homers from my lineup and five players with at least 12 FanDuel points. Monday brings us an eight-game slate to choose from including a game at Coors Field where you will want to get some exposure.

Prices included for FanDuel and DraftKings to help find where the best value may be and positions are based on FanDuel.

So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…

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Lineup

C – Welington Castillo (CHW) (FanDuel: $2,200 / DraftKings: $3,100)

1B – Joey Gallo (TEX) (FanDuel: $3,500 / DraftKings: $3,800)

2B – Jose Altuve (HOU) (FanDuel: $4,600 / DraftKings: $5,000) – Altuve had a .444 wOBA and .286 ISO at home versus lefties last season.

3B – Matt Chapman (OAK) (FanDuel: $3,800 / DraftKings: $4,300) – Chapman has a career .370 wOBA and .250 ISO against lefties on the road in his career and gets a park upgrade for right-handed batters in Texas against Rangers’ lefty Matt Moore.

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SS – Francisco Lindor (CLE) (FanDuel: $4,300 / DraftKings: $4,700)

OF – Charlie Blackmon (COL) (FanDuel: $5,200 / DraftKings: $5,700) – Blackmon had a massive .503 wOBA and .406 ISO at home versus right-handed pitching last year.

OF – Wil Myers (SD) (FanDuel: $3,100 / DraftKings: $4,700) – Myers is 9-for-19 with three doubles, a triple and two homers off Chad Bettis in his career and playing at Coors Field doesn’t hurt.

OF – Matt Kemp (LAD) (FanDuel: $2,500 / DraftKings: $3,700)

Longshot – Jake Marisnick (HOU) (FanDuel: $2,000 / DraftKings: $2,800) – Maisnick is a perfect 4-for-4 off Tyler Skaggs in his career with a double and a home run.

Cheap Pitching options
FanDuel – Trevor Cahill ($6,600), Jarlin Garcia ($5,800)
DraftKings – Masahiro Tanaka ($8,800), Walker Buehler ($6,200), Jarlin Garcia ($6,000)

Results – Friday, April 20

Pos Name HR FD Pts
C Gary Sanchez 0 0.0
1B Joey Gallo 0 6.0
2B Jason Kipnis 0 9.2
3B Travis Shaw 1 34.2
SS Manny Machado 1 21.7
OF Giancarlo Stanton 1 22.2
OF Nelson Cruz 0 15.0
OF Nomar Mazara 0 12.7
Longshot Wilmer Flores 0 9.5

 

Overall Results

Pos Picks HR HR Rate Avg FD Pts
C 8 2 25.0% 12.20
1B 8 1 12.5% 6.18
2B 8 0 0.0% 9.68
SS 8 3 37.5% 15.46
3B 8 1 12.5% 17.09
OF 24 6 25.0% 12.63
Longshot 8 1 12.5% 11.85
Total 72 14 19.4% 12.26

 

If you have any suggestions or feedback for the article, follow me and hit me up on Twitter @Rotopilot

 

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Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

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