Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (4/24)

Introduction

My Monday lineup put up a goose egg in the home run department but still had four hitters with at least 12 FanDuel points. Of course, on such a high scoring night like we had last night that is not nearly enough. Tuesday’s 11-game slate has some weather concerns to keep an eye on and another game at Coors Field which is where the majority of my lineup will be focused on this slate.

Prices included for FanDuel and DraftKings to help find where the best value may be and positions are based on FanDuel.

So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…

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Lineup

C – Wilson Ramos (TB) (FanDuel: $2,300 / DraftKings: $3,000)

1B – Ian Desmond (COL) (FanDuel: $3,400 / DraftKings: $4,200)

2B – Matt Carpenter (STL) (FanDuel: $3,300 / DraftKings: $3,600) – Not much to like at 2B on this slate but Carpenter did have a .378 wOBA and .235 ISO against righties last season.

3B – Nolan Arenado (COL) (FanDuel: $5,100 / DraftKings: $5,400) – The Rockies should be knocking a few balls over the fence on Tuesday at Coors Field against a Padres lefty making his first career start. Arenado has homered in three of his last four games.

SS – Trevor Story (COL) (FanDuel: $4,100 / DraftKings: $4,300) – Story has a career .464 wOBA and .426 ISO at home against lefties.

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OF – Corey Dickerson (PIT) (FanDuel: $3,600 / DraftKings: $3,600) – Dickerson holds 7-for-13 mark with two doubles and a homer off gas can Jordan Zimmermann in his career.

OF – Wil Myers (SD) (FanDuel: $3,400 / DraftKings: $4,800) – Myers pounded out four hits last night and will none of the sailed over the fence he did have two doubles and has eight home runs in 26 career games at Coors Field.

OF – Chad Pinder (OAK) (FanDuel: $2,100 / DraftKings: $3,300) – Pinder is perfect against Cole Hamels going 6-for-6 with three doubles and three homers in his career.

Longshot – Kike Hernandez (LAD) (FanDuel: $2,500 / DraftKings: $3,400) – Hernandez homered against a lefty last night and faces another southpaw on Tuesday and has a career .373 wOBA and .245 ISO against lefties.

Cheap Pitching options
FanDuel – Vince Velasquez ($7,500), Andrew Triggs ($7,400), Jake Faria ($5,900)
DraftKings – Kenta Maeda ($9,300), Tanner Roark ($8,200), Vince Velasquez ($7,000)

Results – Monday, April 23

Pos Name HR FD Pts
C Welington Castillo 0 12.7
1B Joey Gallo 0 18.5
2B Jose Altuve 0 6.0
3B Matt Chapman 0 18.7
SS Francisco Lindor 0 6.0
OF Charlie Blackmon 0 0.0
OF Wil Myers 0 34.2
OF Matt Kemp 0 3.0
Longshot Jake Marisnick 0 0.0

 

Overall Results

Pos Picks HR HR Rate Avg FD Pts
C 9 2 22.2% 12.26
1B 9 1 11.1% 7.54
2B 9 0 0.0% 9.27
SS 9 3 33.3% 14.41
3B 9 1 11.1% 17.27
OF 27 6 22.2% 12.60
Longshot 9 1 11.1% 10.53
Total 81 14 17.3% 12.12

 

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Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

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