Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (4/25)

Introduction

Tuesday was a mixed bag with two players that had their games rained out and only one home run. My HR recommendations for Wednesday’s eight-game night slate has a theme with pair players listed from multiple teams including a bonus “Longshot” option. Let’s hope the home runs come in bunches tonight!

Prices included for FanDuel and DraftKings to help find where the best value may be and positions are based on FanDuel.

So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…

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Lineup

C – Yasmani Grandal (LAD) (FanDuel: $3,600 / DraftKings: $3,800)
Longshot – Joc Pederson (LAD) (FanDuel: $2,200 / DraftKings: $3,600) – Numerous of the Dodgers’ hitters swing the bat better at home than on the road, especially against right-handed pitchers. Grandal when facing a righty at home had a .365 wOBA and .265 ISO last year (even better the year before) and Pederson has hit over half of his career homers at home against a righty.

1B – Matt Olson (OAK) (FanDuel: $2,900 / DraftKings: $4,300)
2B – Jed Lowrie (OAK) (FanDuel: $4,000 / DraftKings: $4,600)
– The A’s hitters get a favorable park adjustment going to Texas and will face Rangers’ right-hander Doug Fister who served up 1.29 HR/9 to lefties last season. Olson has a career .408 wOBA and .336 ISO against righties, while Lowrie has already hit six homers this season (five against righties) in just 24 games.

3B – Mike Moustakas (KC) (FanDuel: $4,000 / DraftKings: $4,200)
Longshot – Lucas Duda (KC) (FanDuel: $2,300 / DraftKings: $3,200) – Duda has clubbed two homers in seven career at-bats against Jhoulys Chacin. Meanwhile, Moustakas posted a .353 wOBA and .268 ISO against righties last season (.470/.388 so far this year).

SS – Paul DeJong (STL) (FanDuel: $4,300 / DraftKings: $4,100)
OF – Tommy Pham (STL) (FanDuel: $4,100 / DraftKings: $4,700)
– DeJong and Pham are perfect against southpaw Steven Matz going a combined 7-for-7 with three home runs.

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OF – Shin-Soo Choo (TEX) (FanDuel: $3,500 / DraftKings: $3,600)
OF – Nomar Mazara (TEX) (FanDuel: $3,200 / DraftKings: $3,500)
– The Rangers square off against A’s right-hander Kendall Graveman who has allowed at least four runs in all five of his starts this season including at least one homer in every outing (7 HRs for the season). Mazara had a .382 wOBA and .214 ISO at home against righties last season, while Choo had a .365 wOBA and .177 ISO.

Cheap Pitching options
FanDuel – Chad Kuhl ($7,000), Michael Wacha ($6,600)
DraftKings – Trevor Bauer ($9,000), Jake Arrieta ($8,500), Jon Lester ($8,200), Michael Wacha ($6,300)

Results – Tuesday, April 24

Pos Name HR FD Pts
C Wilson Ramos NA NA
1B Ian Desmond 0 6.5
2B Matt Carpenter 0 9.2
3B Nolan Arenado 0 12.4
SS Trevor Story 1 32.2
OF Corey Dickerson NA NA
OF Wil Myers 0 0.0
OF Chad Pinder 0 6.0
Longshot Kike Hernandez 0 3.0

 

Overall Results

Pos Picks HR HR Rate Avg FD Pts
C 9 2 22.2% 12.26
1B 10 1 10.0% 7.44
2B 10 0 0.0% 9.26
SS 10 4 40.0% 16.19
3B 10 1 10.0% 16.78
OF 29 6 20.7% 11.94
Longshot 10 1 10.0% 9.78
Total 88 15 17.0% 11.94

 

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Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

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