Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (4/27)

Introduction

My lineup on Wednesday produced a pair of home runs including another one from my Catcher (Yasmani Grandal). Why I do so well at that spot is beyond me. Friday’s huge 14-game slate offers up plenty of options including many under $2,500 on FanDuel. Players not listed in my picks put are viable, cheap long ball options include Chris Davis, Wilmer Flores, Kendrys Morales and Danny Valencia.

Prices included for FanDuel and DraftKings to help find where the best value may be and positions are based on FanDuel.

So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…

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Lineup

C – Evan Gattis (HOU) (FanDuel: $2,800 / DraftKings: $3,200)

1B – Lucas Duda (KC) (FanDuel: $2,400 / DraftKings: $3,400) – I’m going to keep going back to Duda against the White Sox right-handed pitchers until he hit one out as long as he remains this cheap.

2B – Jason Kipnis (CLE) (FanDuel: $3,200 / DraftKings: $3,400) – Kipnis has hit a pair of homers off Erasmo Ramirez in his 12 career at-bats.

SS – Manny Machado (BAL) (FanDuel: $4,600 / DraftKings: $5,100) – You could probably make this list just using players from the Orioles/Tigers game with two gas can pitchers (Mike Fiers and Chris Tillman) on the mound. Machado has a career .235 ISO at home against righties, while Fiers allowed 1.98 HR/9 to righties last season.

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3B – Miguel Sano (MIN) (FanDuel: $3,600 / DraftKings: $3,900)

OF – Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) (FanDuel: $4,700 / DraftKings: $5,100)

OF – J.D. Martinez (BOS) (FanDuel: $4,000 / DraftKings: $4,800) – He is still looking for his first HR off a lefty this season but hit 12 in just 93 at-bats last year. He’ll face lefty Blake Snell who has allowed 1.19 HR/9 to righties on the road in his career.

OF – Scott Schebler (CIN) (FanDuel: $2,700 / DraftKings: $3,600) – Wanted to go with Joey Votto to homer in his fourth straight game but instead I’ll pivot to Schebler who has a career .257 ISO against righties and will face right-hander Phil Hughes who has allowed nine home runs in to lefties over his last 38 innings.

Longshot – Logan Morrison (MIN) (FanDuel: $2,200 / DraftKings: $2,700) – Just have a hunch on this one. Morrison is dirt cheap, he did hit 32 homers off right-handed pitchers last season and the weather is finally warming up in Minnesota.

Cheap Pitching options
FanDuel – Danny Duffy ($7,300), Drew Pomeranz ($7,200), Julio Teheran ($6,900)
DraftKings – Drew Pomeranz ($7,500), Danny Duffy ($6,800), Julio Teheran ($6,500)

Results – Wednesday, April 25

Pos Name HR FD Pts
C Yasmani Grandal 1 25.2
1B Matt Olson 0 3.0
2B Jed Lowrie 0 3.0
3B Mike Moustakas 1 18.7
SS Paul DeJong 0 15.4
OF Tommy Pham 0 0.0
OF Shin-soo Choo 0 3.0
OF Nomar Mazara 0 9.7
Longshot Lucas Duda 0 6.0
Longshot Joc Pederson 0 9.5

 

Overall Results

Pos Picks HR HR Rate Avg FD Pts
C 10 3 30.0% 13.55
1B 11 1 9.1% 7.04
2B 11 0 0.0% 8.69
SS 11 4 36.4% 16.12
3B 11 2 18.2% 16.95
OF 32 6 18.8% 11.22
Longshot 12 1 8.3% 9.44
Total 98 17 17.3% 11.68

 

 

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Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

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