Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (4/30)

Introduction

Last Friday’s long ball lineup fared pretty well with two homers including one from my longshot Logan Morrison. I also had three hitters exceed 25 FanDuel points with another one at 16 FD points. Monday’s 10-game MLB DFS slate has an interesting spot that you will want to pay attention to as the winds they are a-blowin’ at Wrigley Field tonight. So, be sure to get some exposure to the Rockies and Cubs as I did in today’s Swing for the Fences.

Prices included for FanDuel and DraftKings to help find where the best value may be and positions are based on FanDuel.

So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…

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Lineup

C – Willson Contreras (CHC) (FanDuel: $3,200 / DraftKings: $3,800) – Opposing pitcher Kyle Freeland has allowed 1.61 HR/9 to righties on the road in his career while Contreras has a .373 wOBA and .236 ISO at home against lefties. Oh, and the wind is gusting out to left field.

1B – Joey Votto (CIN) (FanDuel: $4,100 / DraftKings: $4,600) – Votto has hit four homers over his last six games and his hitting .333 with two homers off Jhoulys Chacin in 16 career at-bats.

2B – Scooter Gennett (CIN) (FanDuel: $3,500 / DraftKings: $3,600) – Gennett hit two homers against his former team last season and hit over half of his 27 home runs last year at home against a righty.

SS – Addison Russell (CHC) (FanDuel: $2,400 / DraftKings: $3,300) – Russell is a cheap power-hitting SS playing in favorable weather conditions against a lefty. He has a career .220 ISO at home against lefties.

3B – Nolan Arenado (COL) (FanDuel: $4,300 / DraftKings: $5,000) – Both 3B in the Rockies/Cubs game top the list at the position with them both facing lefties with the wind blowing out. I’ll have exposure to both but will list Arenado as my “pick”.

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OF – Rhys Hoskins (PHI) (FanDuel: $4,500 / DraftKings: $5,200) – Hoskins has destroyed Dan Straily in his early career going 6-for-8 with three homers against the right-hander.

OF – Ryan Braun (MIL) (FanDuel: $3,300 / DraftKings: $4,500) – Braun loves hitting in Cincy with 25 homers in 82 career games including one off tonight’s starter Brandon Finnegan.

OF – Curtis Granderson (TOR) (FanDuel: $3,100 / DraftKings: $4,300)

Longshot – Matt Adams (WAS) (FanDuel: $2,000 / DraftKings: $3,400)

Cheap Pitching options
FanDuel – Eduardo Rodriguez ($7,400), Aaron Sanchez ($6,500)
DraftKings – Jeff Samardzija ($8,700), Eduardo Rodriguez ($7,600), Aaron Sanchez ($6,500)

Results – Friday, April 27

Pos Name HR FD Pts
C Evan Gattis 0 3.0
1B Lucas Duda 0 3.0
2B Jason Kipnis 0 9.2
3B Manny Machado 1 28.2
SS Miguel Sano 0 9.7
OF Giancarlo Stanton 0 6.0
OF J.D. Martinez 0 16.0
OF Scott Schebler 0 25.9
Longshot Logan Morrison 1 31.9

 

Overall Results

Pos Picks HR HR Rate Avg FD Pts
C 11 3 27.3% 12.59
1B 12 1 8.3% 6.70
2B 12 0 0.0% 8.73
SS 12 4 33.3% 15.58
3B 12 3 25.0% 17.89
OF 35 6 17.1% 11.62
Longshot 13 2 15.4% 11.17
Total 107 19 17.8% 11.94

 

If you have any suggestions or feedback for the article, follow me and hit me up on Twitter @Rotopilot

 

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Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

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