Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (4/18)

My recommendations fared okay last Friday with a couple long balls and some solid scores for a couple of players that didn’t homer. Tuesday features a full 15-game slate of MLB action so there should be plenty of homers to find, especially in Cincy where the Orioles power bats are in play against the ageless Bronson Arroyo.

Prices included for FanDuel and DraftKings to help find where the best value may be and positions are based on FanDuel.

So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…

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 C – Evan Gattis (HOU) (FanDuel: $2,900 / DraftKings: $3,800) – Gattis is without a home run this season but that could change on Tuesday when he faces Ricky Nolasco who has already given up five homers through his first three starts.

1B – Chris Davis (BAL) (FanDuel: $3,300 / DraftKings: $4,700) – Davis came through for me on Friday and I’ll go back to him again tonight, especially with that price on FanDuel, against Bronson Arroyo who has allowed two homers in each of his first two starts.

2B – Ryan Schimpf (SD) (FanDuel: $3,100 / DraftKings: $3,600) – Schimpf has shown a lot of power in his brief big league career including a .306 ISO versus righties. He will face Diamondbacks’ righty Shelby Miller who gave up 1.26 HR/9 to lefties on the road last season.

SS – Asdrubal Cabrera (NYM) (FanDuel: $3,500 / DraftKings: $3,700) – Cabrera hit 20 of his 23 homers versus righties last season and will face Phillies’ righty Zach Eflin who gave up 2.76 HR/9 to lefties in 11 starts last season.

3B – Manny Machado (BAL) (FanDuel: $3,900 / DraftKings: $4,900) – Machado is the next Orioles’ hitter on the list to pick on Arroyo. He has shown more power versus right-handed pitchers with a .252 ISO last season.

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OF – Bryce Harper (WAS) (FanDuel: $4.700 / DraftKings: $5,100) – Harper blasted two homers on Sunday and has a .394 wOBA and .242 ISO versus righties in his career.

OF – Nelson Cruz (SEA) (FanDuel: $3,700 / DraftKings: $4,300) – Cruz versus a lefty, sign me up! He had a .351 ISO versus lefties last season while his opposition tonight Wei-Yin Chen gave up 1.79 HR/9 to righties last season.

OF – Justin Upton (DET) (FanDuel: $3,400 / DraftKings: $3,900) – Upton might be a little bit “off the board” for a home run call tonight but he hits for more power versus righties (.225 ISO last season) and has made hard contact 55.6% of the time over his last four games.

Longshot – Seth Smith (BAL) (FanDuel: $2,600 / DraftKings: $3,700) – Smith is a cheaper option hitting at the top of the Orioles lineup. He has a career .358 wOBA and .202 ISO versus right-handers.

 

Friday, April 14 –  Results

Date Pos Name HR FD Pts
14-Apr C Yasmani Grandal 0 9.0
14-Apr 1B Chris Davis 1 30.9
14-Apr 2B Brian Dozier 0 18.0
14-Apr SS Zack Cozart 1 25.2
14-Apr 3B Eugenio Suarez 0 6.2
14-Apr OF Ryan Braun 0 21.0
14-Apr OF Carlos Gomez 0 6.0
14-Apr OF Steve Pearce 0 0.0
14-Apr Longshot Brandon Moss 0 6.0

 

Season Results

Pos Picks HR HR Rate Avg FD Pts
C 4 0 0.0% 5.30
1B 4 1 25.0% 16.40
2B 4 1 25.0% 14.55
SS 3 2 66.7% 22.77
3B 3 1 33.3% 15.87
OF 12 5 41.7% 13.45
Longshot 4 1 25.0% 10.93
Total 34 11 32.4% 13.71

 

If you have any suggestions or feedback for the article, follow me and hit me up on Twitter @Rotopilot

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Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

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