Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (5/1)

Introduction

Monday’s lineup had five out of eight players score at least 12 FanDuel points, however, not a single one of them was able to take a pitch over the fence. Tuesday features a big 14-game MLB DFS slate with more wind blowing out at numerous parks including Wrigley Field again. See if any Cubs or Rockies make my list tonight.

Prices included for FanDuel and DraftKings to help find where the best value may be and positions are based on FanDuel.

So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…

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Lineup

C – Manny Pina (MIL) (FanDuel: $2,100 / DraftKings: $2,500) – Pina hit a home run yesterday and has two homers in seven career at-bats against Homer Bailey.

1B – Matt Olson (OAK) (FanDuel: $2,800 / DraftKings: $3,700)

2B – Matt Carpenter (STL) (FanDuel: $3,100 / DraftKings: $3,600) – Despite poor looking numbers for the season, Carpenter has a 46.2% hard-hit rate and 30.8% line drive rate over his last six games. A matchup with home run prone righty James Shields (2.82 HR/9 to lefties last season) could be all Carpenter needs to get on track.

SS – Carlos Correa (HOU) (FanDuel: $4,400 / DraftKings: $4,900)

3B – Travis Shaw (MIL) (FanDuel: $3,800 / DraftKings: $4,300) – Shaw hit four homers in nine games at Cincinnati last season for the Ohio native.

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OF – Mike Trout (LAA) (FanDuel: $5,400 / DraftKings: $5,800) – I would actually be more surprised if Trout does not hit a home run tonight then if he does it one off Alex Cobb who has allowed three homers in just over 11 innings through three starts and has yielded a pair of long balls to Trout in 12 career at-bats.

OF – Nelson Cruz (SEA) (FanDuel: $3,800 / DraftKings: $4,000) – Cruz is reasonably priced for a slugger with two-homer potential any given night and faces Andrew Triggs who Cruz has belted two homers off in five career at-bats.

OF – Kyle Schwarber (CHC) (FanDuel: $3,900 / DraftKings: $4,400) – Only going with one hitter from the Windy City matchup on Tuesday night. Schwarber has a career .401 wOBA and .314 ISO at home against righties.

Longshot – Logan Morrison (MIN) (FanDuel: $2,500 / DraftKings: $3,100) – Used Morrison successfully as a “longshot” last week on a hunch. He has some numbers to back up his recommendation tonight going 8-for-21 with three homers off Marco Estrada in his career.

Cheap Pitching options
FanDuel – Jarlin Garcia ($6,100), Andrew Suarez ($5,700)
DraftKings – Nick Tropeano ($6,400), Andrew Suarez ($5,400), Jarlin Garcia ($4,900)

Results – Monday, April 30

Pos Name HR FD Pts
C Willson Contreras 0 3.0
1B Joey Votto 0 15.4
2B Scooter Gennett NA NA
3B Nolan Arenado 0 12.5
SS Addison Russell 0 12.7
OF Rhys Hoskins 0 3.0
OF Ryan Braun 0 18.2
OF Curtis Granderson 0 15.7
Longshot Matt Adams 0 3.0

 

Overall Results

Pos Picks HR HR Rate Avg FD Pts
C 12 3 25.0% 11.79
1B 13 1 7.7% 7.37
2B 12 0 0.0% 8.73
SS 13 4 30.8% 15.36
3B 13 3 23.1% 17.48
OF 38 6 15.8% 11.68
Longshot 14 2 14.3% 10.59
Total 115 19 16.5% 11.83

 

If you have any suggestions or feedback for the article, follow me and hit me up on Twitter @Rotopilot

 

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Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

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