Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (5/12)

Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

My Tuesday lineup had a lot of players end up not playing due to weather (Duvall), suspension (Sano) and just not being ready to come back from injury (Kinsler). I did manage to finally get my first homer run from the catcher position so I now have at least one home run from every position.

Friday night features a full 15-game slate that includes Coors Field and Clayton Kershaw all rolled up into one with Kershaw pitching at Coors. While that leads me to not use any Rockies hitter in my lineup, I do have a couple of Dodgers on the other side worth considering.

Prices included for FanDuel and DraftKings to help find where the best value may be and positions are based on FanDuel.

So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…

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C – Yasmani Grandal (LAD) (FanDuel: $3,700 / DraftKings: $4,500) – I typically prefer Grandal when he is at home versus a righty but I guess playing at Coors Field he should warrant some consideration as well. He’s had success against Tyler Chatwood going 5-for-7 with a double, triple and homer in his career.

1B – Ryan Zimmerman (WAS) (FanDuel: $4,100 / DraftKings: $4,900) – Zimmerman has cooled off a little bit over his last few games but he could get back on track against rookie Nick Pivetta who he went 2-for-3 with a homer off last Friday.

2B – Rougned Odor (TEX) (FanDuel: $3,000 / DraftKings: $4,600) – Odor may be heating up with five hits over his last three games. With warm temps and the wind blowing out to right field, Odor and his career .217 ISO versus righties could take advantage.

SS – Jody Mercer (PIT) (FanDuel: $2,300 / DraftKings: $3,100) – Two cheap longshot picks for the price of one today with Mercer as my recommended SS tonight. He gets a favorable park adjustment going to Arizona. He should hit near the top of the lineup against lefty Patrick Corbin who has allowed 1.55 HR/9 to righties this season (1.87 at home versus righties last year).

3B – Jake Lamb (ARI) (FanDuel: $3,500 / DraftKings: $4,600) – Jumping to the other side of the Pirates/D’Backs matchup we have Lamb who crushes righties (career .215 ISO) going against right-hander Tyler Glasnow who if he is not giving up walks (6.33 BB/9) he is giving up home runs to lefties (1.64 HR/9) so far this season.

OF – Jay Bruce (NYM) (FanDuel: $4,100 / DraftKings: $4,600) – Bruce has hit nine of his 10 home runs this season off righties (.393 ISO) and will face Brewers’ righty Matt Garza, who Bruce has gone 12-of-33 off with four doubles and three homers.

OF – Joc Pederson (LAD) (FanDuel: $3,600 / DraftKings: $4,900) – Pederson is the kind of player that will do nothing for a week or two and then all of the sudden busts out with multiple home runs. Playing at Coors against a righty feels like one of those spots. Oh and he’s batting leadoff (extra AB potential) the last couple of games.

OF – Khris Davis (OAK) (FanDuel: $3,200 / DraftKings: $4,200) – Once again Davis is on my list to go deep. His price just always feels too low for a player with two home run upside on any given day. He will face Andrew Cashner in a good hitting environment in Texas tonight.

Longshot – Curtis Granderson (NYM) (FanDuel: $2,500 / DraftKings: $3,700) – Granderson will face right-hander Garza in hitter-friendly Miller Park. Garza allowed 1.37 HR/9 to lefties at home last season and two long balls to lefties at home over his first 19 batters faced this year.

Cheap Pitching options
FanDuel – Matt Shoemaker ($7,500), Jhoulys Chacin ($6,800)
DraftKings – Matt Shoemaker ($7,900), Jhoulys Chacin ($6,600)

 

Tuesday, May 9 –  Results

Pos Name HR FD Pts
C Gary Sanchez 1 18.7
1B Edwin Encarnacion 0 9.2
2B Ian Kinsler NA NA
3B Miguel Sano NA NA
SS Tim Beckham 0 13.0
OF Aaron Judge 0 6.0
OF Adam Duvall NA NA
OF Khris Davis 0 3.0
Longshot Colby Rasmus 0 21.4

 

Season Results

Pos Picks HR HR Rate Avg FD Pts
C 8 1 12.5% 8.20
1B 10 2 20.0% 11.80
2B 9 1 11.1% 9.52
SS 9 3 33.3% 19.93
3B 8 1 12.5% 8.98
OF 28 11 39.3% 15.73
Longshot 8 1 12.5% 10.44
Total 80 20 25.0% 13.06

 

 

 

 

If you have any suggestions or feedback for the article, follow me and hit me up on Twitter @Rotopilot

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Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

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