Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (5/16)

Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

The weather is heating up and the winds are blowing in many ballparks tonight so we should see plenty of long balls across the majors. In particular in Chicago, where the temps are in the low 80s and the winds will be blowing out to center in Wrigley. So, stack up your Cubbies.

Prices included for FanDuel and DraftKings to help find where the best value may be and positions are based on FanDuel.

So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…

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C – Miguel Montero (CHC) (FanDuel: $2,500 / DraftKings: $3,300) – Wind blowing out with Bronson Arroyo and his 2.25 HR/9 to lefties this season equals Cubs stack. Plus, Montero is 8-for-19 with three homers off Arroyo in his career.

1B – Anthony Rizzo (CHC) (FanDuel: $3,900 / DraftKings: $4,600) – Rizzo is too good of a hitter to be struggling the way he is right now. At least it has knocked down is price a little putting him in a good spot for his first home run since April 29th.

2B – Rougned Odor (TEX) (FanDuel: $2,800 / DraftKings: $4,000) – The wind is blowing in at Texas tonight but the temps are the high mid-80s and Odor will face righty Jerad Eickhoff who allowed a .361 wOBA and 1.93 HR/9 to lefties so far this season.

SS – Chris Owings (ARI) (FanDuel: $3,300 / DraftKings: $4,000) – Owings has flashed some power this season with five homers and a .205 ISO versus lefties. He will face Mets lefty Tommy Milone who has allowed 2.84 HR/9 this season (1.81 HR/9 last season) to righties.

3B – Joey Gallo (TEX) (FanDuel: $3,300 / DraftKings: $4,300) – Gallo already has 12 homers this season with 10 of his long balls coming against righties for a .362 ISO. A little wind blowing in won’t bother his power.

OF – Mike Trout (LAA) (FanDuel: $4,900 / DraftKings: $5,400) – Trout is on a home run binge with long balls in four straight games. Look for him to make it five against lefty Derek Holland. Trout is 14-for-43 with three homers off Holland in his career.

OF – Yasmany Tomas (ARI) (FanDuel: $3,300 / DraftKings: $4,100) – Tomas has a .245 ISO against lefties in his career and will face soft-tossing lefty Milone in hitter-friendly Arizona.

OF – Kyle Schwarber (CHC) (FanDuel: $3,100 / DraftKings: $4,100) – Schwarber is hitless in his last four games but has a .378 wOBA and .281 ISO at home versus righties in his career.

Longshot – Lucas Duda (NYM) (FanDuel: $2,500 / DraftKings: $3,900) – Duda has a career .223 ISO versus righties and will face right-hander Zack Greinke who does give up some homers especially at home (1.42 HR/9 this season).

Cheap Pitching options
FanDuel – Eduardo Rodriguez ($7,800), Jimmy Nelson ($7,800), JC Ramirez ($7,200)
DraftKings – Rich Hill ($8,700), Andrew Triggs ($8,200), Eduardo Rodriguez ($8,100), JC Ramirez ($6,600)

Friday, May 12 –  Results

Pos Name HR FD Pts
C Yasmani Grandal 0 6.0
1B Ryan Zimmerman NA NA
2B Rougned Odor 0 18.2
SS Jody Mercer 0 6.2
3B Jake Lamb 0 19.2
OF Jay Bruce 0 3.0
OF Khris Davis 0 0.0
OF Joc Pederson 0 15.7
Longshot Curtis Granderson 0 9.2


Season Results

Pos Picks HR HR Rate Avg FD Pts
C 9 1 11.1% 7.96
1B 10 2 20.0% 11.80
2B 10 1 10.0% 10.39
SS 10 3 30.0% 18.56
3B 9 1 11.1% 10.11
OF 31 11 35.5% 14.81
Longshot 9 1 11.1% 10.30
Total 88 20 22.7% 12.75

 

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Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

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