Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (6/13)

Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

Just have time for an abbreviated version of the Swing for the Fences article today with just the picks and without the reasoning.

Prices included for FanDuel and DraftKings to help find where the best value may be and positions are based on FanDuel.

So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…

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C – Welington Castillo (BAL) (FanDuel: $2,800 / DraftKings: $3,300)

1B – Logan Morrison (TB) (FanDuel: $3,200 / DraftKings: $4,300)

2B – Robinson Cano (SEA) (FanDuel: $3,100 / DraftKings: $4,400)

SS – Carlos Correa (HOU) (FanDuel: $4,200 / DraftKings: $4,900)

3B – Wilmer Flores (NYM) (FanDuel: $2,700 / DraftKings: $3,100)

OF – Bryce Harper (WAS) (FanDuel: $4,500 / DraftKings: $5,300)

OF – Trey Mancini (BAL) (FanDuel: $3,000 / DraftKings: $3,300)

OF – Dexter Fowler (STL) (FanDuel: $3,000 / DraftKings: $N/A)

Longshot – Matt Davidson (CHW) (FanDuel: $2,400 / DraftKings: $2,900)

Cheap Pitching options
FanDuel – Jason Vargas ($8,500), Gerrit Cole ($8,000), Brad Peacock ($7,000)
DraftKings – Jon Lester ($8,800), Jason Vargas ($8,300), Joe Ross ($7,200), Gerrit Cole ($6,800)

 

Friday, June 9 –  Results

Pos Name HR FD Pts
C Gary Sanchez 0 15.4
1B Lucas Duda 0 3.0
2B Brian Dozier 0 12.5
3B Josh Donaldson 0 9.0
SS Didi Gregorius 0 6.2
OF Mookie Betts 0 12.0
OF Jay Bruce 0 9.0
OF Lonnie Chisenhall 0 18.7
Longshot Chad Pinder 0 3.0

 

Season Results

Pos Picks HR HR Rate Avg FD Pts
C 15 4 26.7% 11.25
1B 18 4 22.2% 11.25
2B 17 3 17.6% 11.04
SS 16 4 25.0% 17.71
3B 17 3 17.6% 9.36
OF 55 13 23.6% 11.93
Longshot 17 2 11.8% 10.78
Total 155 33 21.3% 11.88

 

 

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Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

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