Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (6/16)

Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

I was able to put together a solid lineup on Tuesday with three homers out of eight players recommended including my Longshot play of Matt Davidson who smacked a grand slam. Friday’s home run hitters list came together fairly easy, hopefully, that mean it will be full of bombs (the good kind). Enjoy and Happy Father’s Day to all the Dads out there!

Prices included for FanDuel and DraftKings to help find where the best value may be and positions are based on FanDuel.

So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…

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C – Jonathan Lucroy (TEX) (FanDuel: $2,800 / DraftKings: $3,800) – Lucroy has back-to-back two-hit games and is 4-for-9 with a homer off James Paxton.

1B – Brandon Belt (SF) (FanDuel: $3,500 / DraftKings: $4,600) – Belt might not “go yard” on Friday but he should still rack up the extra-base hits, runs and RBIs.

2B – Robinson Cano (SEA) (FanDuel: $3,300 / DraftKings: $4,100) – Cano is riding an eight-game hitting streak while batting .333. He will get to play in the heat of Texas against Tyson Ross making just his second start since 2015 and will likely get a couple of at-bats against the Rangers’ bullpen (4.80 ERA).

SS – Corey Seager (LAD) (FanDuel: $3,700 / DraftKings: $4,800) – Seager has nine hits over his last five games and will get a favorable park adjustment in Cincy against righty Tim Adleman who has allowed 1.94 HR/9 to lefties in his career.

3B – Josh Donaldson (TOR) (FanDuel: $4,100 / DraftKings: $4,700) – Donaldson is batting .341 with five home runs already this month and has had success against Jose Quintana in his career going 5-for-11 with a double and a home run.

OF – Cody Bellinger (LAD) (FanDuel: $3,800 / DraftKings: $4,800) – Bellinger is red-hot with six homers over his last five games and get a favorable park adjustment against Adleman who struggles with the long ball to lefties.

OF – Aaron Altherr (PHI) (FanDuel: $3,300 / DraftKings: $3,900) – Altherr has gone deep twice in his last three games and has a .350 ISO versus lefties this season. He will face D’Backs lefty Patrick Corbin who has allowed a .393 wOBA and 1.82 HR/9 to righties this season.

OF – Matt Kemp (ATL) (FanDuel: $3,200 / DraftKings: $4,400) – Make sure Kemp is in the lineup before using him tonight. Assuming he is in the lineup he is in a good spot playing at hitter-friendly Atlanta against Dan Straily who has allowed a .473 wOBA and 4.50 HR/9 on the road to righties.

Longshot – Jake Marisnick (HOU) (FanDuel: $2,500 / DraftKings: $3,100) – Marisnick is a cheap BvP special hitting 4-for-10 with a triple and two homers off Drew Pomeranz in his career.

Cheap Pitching options
FanDuel – Alex Wood ($8,600), Daniel Norris ($7,300)
DraftKings – James Paxton ($8,800), Daniel Norris ($6,800), Aaron Nola ($6,300)

Tuesday, June 13 –  Results

Pos Name HR FD Pts
C Welington Castillo 0 3.0
1B Logan Morrison 1 28.7
2B Robinson Cano 0 9.2
3B Wilmer Flores 0 0.0
SS Carlos Correa 1 18.7
OF Bryce Harper 0 13.2
OF Trey Mancini 0 6.0
OF Dexter Fowler NA NA
Longshot Matt Davidson 1 29.2

 

Season Results

Pos Picks HR HR Rate Avg FD Pts
C 16 4 25.0% 10.74
1B 19 5 26.3% 12.17
2B 18 3 16.7% 10.93
SS 17 5 29.4% 17.77
3B 18 3 16.7% 8.84
OF 57 13 22.8% 11.85
Longshot 18 3 16.7% 11.80
Total 163 36 22.1% 11.96

 

 

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Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

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