Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (6/2)

Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

Tuesday’s lineup was only able to manage one long ball, from the catcher none the less. There are a bunch of high-priced ace pitching option on the 14-game Friday night slate and we are even going to try to pick on a couple of them with tonight’s home run hitters.

Prices included for FanDuel and DraftKings to help find where the best value may be and positions are based on FanDuel.

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So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…

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C – Salvador Perez (KC) (FanDuel: $3,300 / DraftKings: $3,500) – Perez has crushed opposing pitcher Josh Tomlin in his career with a .514 average (18-for-35) with eight doubles and a homer.

1B – Brandon Belt (SF) (FanDuel: $3,400 / DraftKings: $4,000) – Belt has one of the highest launch scores (a metric I introduced a week ago) at 104.7. He has a .300 ISO on the road versus righties and will get a favorable park adjustment in Philadelphia against righty Jerad Eickhoff who has allowed 1.64 HR/9 to lefties this season.

2B – Jason Kipnis (CLE) (FanDuel: $3,100 / DraftKings: $4,100) – Tough finding a good home run candidate at 2B tonight so I’ll go with Kipnis who has had some success against Jason Vargas in his career going 10-for-29 with a homer while Vargas has allowed 1.74 HR/9 to lefties so far this season.

SS – Carlos Correa (HOU) (FanDuel: $3,500 / DraftKings: $5,400) – Correa might go under-owned matching up with Yu Darvish but he has been on fire lately batting .516 with three homers over his last seven games.

3B – Mike Moustakas (KC) (FanDuel: $3,000 / DraftKings: $4,100) – Moustakas has three homers over his last seven games and has a .261 ISO versus righties this season. He will face Indians right-hander Josh Tomlin who has allowed 1.51 HR/9 to lefties in his career.

OF – Matt Kemp (ATL) (FanDuel: $3,800 / DraftKings: $4,600) – Kemp has homered in back-to-back games and will get a prime matchup against Bronson Arroyo who Kemp has gone 12-for-28 with a pair of homers off in his career.

OF – Scott Schebler (CIN) (FanDuel: $3,100 / DraftKings: $4,200) – Schebler is on a home run tear with six long balls over his last 11 games. He gets a favorable matchup against Mike Foltynewicz who has allowed 1.71 HR/9 to lefties this season.

OF – Khris Davis (OAK) (FanDuel: $3,100 / DraftKings: $4,100) – Davis is another hitter facing a good pitcher, Stephen Strasburg. However, Davis has had success against Strasburg with two homers in just six at-bats.

Longshot – Matt Adams (ATL) (FanDuel: $2,600 / DraftKings: $3,600) – If you want more exposure to Bronson Arroyo and his 4.22 HR/9 allowed to lefties this season then look to include Adams in your lineup.

Cheap Pitching options
FanDuel –  Michael Pineda ($8,500), Gerrit Cole ($8,700)
DraftKings – Michael Pineda ($8,600), Michael Fulmer ($8,000), Gerrit Cole ($7,800), German Marquez ($7,200)

 

Wednesday, May 30 –  Results

Pos Name HR FD Pts
C Austin Hedges 1 35.2
1B Hanley Ramirez 0 3.0
2B Brian Dozier 0 0.0
3B Nolan Arenado 0 0.0
SS Trevor Story 0 15.2
OF Nelson Cruz 0 6.2
OF J.D. Martinez 0 0.0
OF Andrew McCutchen 0 3.0
Longshot Chris Young 0 12.4

 

Season Results

Pos Picks HR HR Rate Avg FD Pts
C 12 3 25.0% 10.46
1B 15 4 26.7% 11.59
2B 14 2 14.3% 10.74
SS 13 3 23.1% 17.33
3B 14 2 14.3% 9.39
OF 46 13 28.3% 12.73
Longshot 14 1 7.1% 11.32
Total 128 28 21.9% 12.11

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Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

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