Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (6/30)

Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

Tuesday’s home run picks did not go well, can’t win them all. Friday night’s picks will take more of a value look so that you can fit in a higher priced pitcher since there are not many cheap pitching options I feel comfortable recommending. So get some value long balls bats and a high strikeout pitcher and let it rip.

Note: I will be on vacation next week so the next Swing for the Fences article will not be until after the All-Star break.

Prices included for FanDuel and DraftKings to help find where the best value may be and positions are based on FanDuel.

So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…

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C – Wilson Ramos (TB) (FanDuel: $2,300 / DraftKings: $3,600) – Ramos recently returned after starting the season on the DL. He hit a career-high 22 home runs last season and will face Chris Tillman who has allowed 2.42 HR/9 to righties this season.

1B – Justin Bour (MIA) (FanDuel: $3,000 / DraftKings: $4,200) – Bour has a .356 wOBA and .226 ISO versus righties in his career and will get a favorable park adjustment playing in Milwaukee against righty Matt Garza who has allowed 1.88 HR/9 to lefties at home this season.

2B – Rougned Odor (TEX) (FanDuel: $3,000 / DraftKings: $3,300) – Odor has hit all 12 of his home runs this season off righties with a .211 ISO. He will face right-hander Mike Pelfrey who has allowed 1.45 HR/9 to lefties this season.

SS – Carlos Correa (HOU) (FanDuel: $4,000 / DraftKings: $4,500) – Correa is 6-for-10 with two doubles and three homers off Michael Pineda in his career.

3B – Evan Longoria (TB) (FanDuel: $3,400 / DraftKings: $4,600) – Longoria has owned Chris Tillman over his career hitting .303 with nine home runs in 66 at-bats.

OF – Jay Bruce (NYM) (FanDuel: $3,500 / DraftKings: $4,500) – Bruce at home versus a righty, sign me up. He has a .314 ISO at home versus righties and will face Phillies right-hander Ben Lively who allows a lot of contact with just a 8.1% strikeout rate.

OF – Steven Souza (TB) (FanDuel: $3,500 / DraftKings: $4,300) – Souza only has three hits over his last five games but has made hard contact 50% of the time during that stretch. He has a .381 wOBA and .267 ISO versus righties this season.

OF – Yoenis Cespedes (NYM) (FanDuel: $3,200 / DraftKings: $4,500) – Cespedes offers two home run upside at a reasonable salary (especially on FD). Lively allows a lot of contact and Cespedes has a 46.4% hard contact rate versus righties this season.

Longshot – Trevor Story (COL) (FanDuel: $2,500 / DraftKings: $3,000) – Story has a .437 wOBA on the road versus lefties this season and has gone 4-for-8 with a pair of long balls off lefty Robbie Ray.

“Not so Cheap” Pitching options
FanDuel – Alex Wood ($10,500), Lance McCullers ($9,500), Gerrit Cole ($8,900)
DraftKings – Lance McCullers ($8,800), Jacob Faria ($8,300), Johnny Cueto ($7,800)

 

Tuesday, June 27 –  Results

Pos Name HR FD Pts
C Yasmani Grandal NA NA
1B Eric Thames 0 3.0
2B Brian Dozier 0 3.0
3B Josh Donaldson 0 0.0
SS Francisco Lindor 0 0.0
OF Mookie Betts 0 6.5
OF Marcell Ozuna 0 0.0
OF Keon Broxton 0 15.2
Longshot Yasiel Puig NA NA

 

Season Results

Pos Picks HR HR Rate Avg FD Pts
C 19 4 21.1% 10.36
1B 23 7 30.4% 13.05
2B 22 3 13.6% 9.24
SS 21 5 23.8% 14.82
3B 22 3 13.6% 7.64
OF 68 17 25.0% 12.25
Longshot 20 4 20.0% 11.86
Total 195 43 22.1% 11.54

 

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Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

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