Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (7/30)

Introduction

Monday brings a solid nine-game MLB DFS slate. The slate doesn’t have the dazzle of a game at Coors Field or Globe Life Park in Arlington to headline it but there are still some solid hitting environments and pitchers to pick on for homers.

Prices included for FanDuel and DraftKings to help find where the best value may be and positions are based on FanDuel.

So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…

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Lineup

mlb fanduel and draftkings lineup 7/30

C – Kurt Suzuki (ATL) (FanDuel: $2,600 / DraftKings: $3,900) / Tyler Flowers (ATL) (FanDuel: $2,500 / DraftKings: $3,400) – Give me whichever Braves catcher starts behind the plate on Monday as they both mash left-handed pitchers and face Marlins southpaw Wei-Yin Chen who has allowed a .458 wOBA and 2.81 HR/9 to righties on the road this season.

1B – Paul Goldschmidt (ARI) (FanDuel: $4,300 / DraftKings: $4,700) – Goldschmidt homered on Sunday, has five hits over his last three games and has posted a .439 wOBA and .316 ISO against lefties this season.

2B – Ozzie Albies (ATL) (FanDuel: $3,900 / DraftKings: $5,300) – Read Chen stats from catcher writeup and add in Albies .365 wOBA and .226 ISO against lefties.

SS – Jorge Polanco (MIN) (FanDuel: $2,800 / DraftKings: $4,100) – Polanco has a .453 wOBA against righties and will face righty Shane Bieber who has allowed 18 runs over his last four starts and has given up a .444 wOBA to lefties this season.

3B – Christian Villanueva (SD) (FanDuel: $2,700 / DraftKings: $3,900) – Villanueva has massive home splits versus lefties with a .585 wOBA and .583 ISO and faces lefty Derek Holland who has allowed 1.53 HR/9 to righties this year.

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OF – Joc Pederson (LAD) (FanDuel: $3,500 / DraftKings: $4,500) – All 14 of Pederson’s homers have come off righties this season with a .402 wOBA and .297 ISO against them.

OF – Eddie Rosario (MIN) (FanDuel: $3,600 / DraftKings: $5,200) – Rosario will face the lefty-friendly Bieber and bring his .427 wOBA and .287 ISO this season at home against righties to the plate.

OF – Wil Myers (SD) (FanDuel: $3,400 / DraftKings: $4,600) – Myers is batting .302 with seven homers in July and has a .387 wOBA and .346 ISO against southpaws this season.

Longshot – Justin Bour (MIA) (FanDuel: $2,500 / DraftKings: $4,000) – Bour has a career .412 average with three extra-base hits in 17 at-bats versus Julio Teheran and has posted a .352 wOBA and .219 ISO against righties this season.

Cheap Pitching options
FanDuel – Robbie Ray ($8,300), Carlos Martinez ($7,700)
DraftKings – Robbie Ray ($8,000), Carlos Martinez ($7,900), Edwin Jackson ($6,300)

Results – Tuesday, July 24

Pos Name HR FD Pts
C Yadier Molina 0 3.0
1B Mitch Moreland 0 3.0
2B Rougned Odor 0- 15.4
3B Eugenio Suarez 1 25.2
SS Paul DeJong 0 12.2
OF George Springer 1 25.4
OF Khris Davis 1 25.7
OF Nelson Cruz 0 6.2
Longshot Chad Pinder 0 0.0

 

Overall Results

Pos Picks HR HR Rate Avg FD Pts
C 29 6 20.7% 8.77
1B 35 2 5.7% 7.88
2B 34 5 14.7% 10.58
SS 34 5 14.7% 12.90
3B 34 12 35.3% 16.16
OF 103 20 19.4% 11.43
Longshot 34 7 20.6% 10.54
Total 303 57 18.8% 11.26

 

 

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Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

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