Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (7/14)

Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

Well, it has been two full weeks since my last Swing for the Fences article due to vacation and the MLB All-Star break. I suppose I could have done a Home Run Derby article but without much DFS implications, I figured it wasn’t worth it. While I will only give one “Longshot” below I want to mention a couple of other cheap options that I think could go deep and allow you to pay up for some pitching if you want to swap them into the lineup. So beyond Kyle Seager, also consider Stephen Drew and Kyle Schwarber.

Prices included for FanDuel and DraftKings to help find where the best value may be and positions are based on FanDuel.

So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…

Download the GoingFor2 App for iOS & Andriod>>> 

 

Join the official GoingFor2 Facebook Group Chat>>>

C – Buster Posey (SF) (FanDuel: $3,000 / DraftKings: $3,800) – Posey has a .439 wOBA and .250 ISO versus lefties and will face left-hander Clayton Richard who has allowed 1.52 HR/9 to righties this season.

1B – Ryan Zimmerman (WAS) (FanDuel: $3,200 / DraftKings: $4,300) – Zimmerman has a .405 wOBA and a .250 ISO versus righties this season and will face Reds’ right-hander Tim Adleman who has allowed 2.35 HR/9 at home this season.

2B – Robinson Cano (SEA) (FanDuel: $3,200 / DraftKings: $4,200) – Cano has destroyed Shields in his career batting .411 with nine doubles, two triples and five homers in 90 at-bats.

SS – Didi Gregorius (NYY) (FanDuel: $3,000 / DraftKings: $3,900) – I am not excited about the SS option tonight so I’m going to BvP with Gregorius who is 6-for-11 with a homer against Drew Pomeranz in his career. Feel free to pivot to Stephen Drew if he is in the lineup.

3B – Freddie Freeman (ATL) (FanDuel: $3,600 / DraftKings: $4,900) – It sure is nice to have Freeman as a 3B option now. It’s almost like he wasn’t on the DL for six weeks as he is batting .385 with a pair of homers since returning six games ago.

OF – Bryce Harper (WAS) (FanDuel: $4,600 / DraftKings: $5,600) – Harper is riding an eight-game hitting streak and has a .447 wOBA with a .317 ISO versus righties this season. He will face Reds’ righty Tim Adleman who has allowed a 51.4% fly ball rate to lefties this year.

OF – Adam Duvall (CIN) (FanDuel: $3,500 / DraftKings: $4,700) – Duvall has a .444 ISO at home versus lefties this season and will face southpaw Gio Gonzalez who has allowed 1.70 HR/9 to righties on the road this year.

OF – Steven Souza (TB) (FanDuel: $3,200 / DraftKings: $4,300) – Souza treated me right in my last article two weeks ago and I’m going back to him again with a .288 ISO versus righties and two homers in six at-bats against righty Ricky Nolasco in his career.

Longshot – Kyle Seager (SEA) (FanDuel: $2,500 / DraftKings: $3,300) – Seager is 7-for-17 with three homers against James Shields in his career and is way too cheap for a player who has topped 20 homers in five straight seasons.

Value Pitching options
FanDuel – Charlie Morton ($7,700), Nick Pivetta ($7,300), Jon Gray ($6,600)
DraftKings – Jacob Faria ($8,200), Drew Pomeranz ($7,400), Charlie Morton ($6,900)

 

Friday, June 30 –  Results

Pos Name HR FD Pts
C Wilson Ramos 1 22.2
1B Justin Bour 0 3.0
2B Rougned Odor 1 22.2
3B Evan Longoria 0 6.0
SS Carlos Correa 0 6.2
OF Jay Bruce 0 3.0
OF Steven Souza 1 34.9
OF Yoenis Cespedes 0 3.0
Longshot Trevor Story 0 9.2

 

Season Results

Pos Picks HR HR Rate Avg FD Pts
C 20 5 25.0% 10.95
1B 24 7 29.2% 12.63
2B 23 4 17.4% 9.80
SS 22 5 22.7% 14.43
3B 23 3 13.0% 7.57
OF 71 18 25.4% 12.31
Longshot 21 4 19.0% 11.73
Total 204 46 22.5% 11.57

 

 

 

If you have any suggestions or feedback for the article, follow me and hit me up on Twitter @Rotopilot

 

The following two tabs change content below.

Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

Leave a Reply

Be the First to Comment!

Notify of
avatar
wpDiscuz

Pin It on Pinterest