Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (7/18)

Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

Friday night’s picks went very well with 5 HRs including two bombs from Bryce Harper. I’ll look to keep the post All-Star break momentum going with some long ball hitters for Tuesday’s 15-game slate that features a lot of gas can pitchers on the mound to pick on.

Prices included for FanDuel and DraftKings to help find where the best value may be and positions are based on FanDuel.

So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…

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C – Salvador Perez (KC) (FanDuel: $2,900 / DraftKings: $4,000) – Perez is on his way to a career-high in homers this season. He has hit 12 homers versus lefties with a .241 ISO this season and will face Tigers’ lefty Matt Boyd who has allowed a .387 wOBA and 1.21 HR/9 to righties this season.

1B – Cody Bellinger (LAD) (FanDuel: $3,800 / DraftKings: $4,900) – Bellinger gets a favorable park adjustment playing in Chicago against the White Sox and has a .372 ISO on the road versus righties this season. White Sox right-hander Miguel Gonzalez has allowed 1.42 HR/9 to lefties this year.

2B – Rougned Odor (TEX) (FanDuel: $3,000 / DraftKings: $3,700) – Odor is hitless since the All-Star break but has hit 16 of his 17 homers versus righties this season and will face the Orioles’ righty Dylan Bundy who has allowed 1.42 HR/9 to lefties this season.

SS – Paul DeJong (STL) (FanDuel: $2,600 / DraftKings: $3,200) – DeJong has four homers over his last seven games and has hit eight of his 10 homers against righties for a .280 ISO this season. He will face Mets’ right-hander Rafael Montero who has limited the long ball this season but has a career 1.12 HR/9 mark allowed to righties.

3B – Jake Lamb (ARI) (FanDuel: $3,400 / DraftKings: $4,400) – Tough call between Lamb and Travis Shaw at the hot corner today. Shaw has the BvP against Ivan Nova but I have a hunch that Lamb and his .274 ISO on the road versus righties goes deep off the Reds’ rookie Sal Romano or the Reds’ bullpen.

OF – Mike Trout (LAA) (FanDuel: $4,500 / DraftKings: $5,400) – Trout has hits in each of his first three games since returning from the DL and will face Edwin “he’s still in the league?” Jackson who has allowed 1.17 HR/9 during his career and two homers in five innings this season.

OF – George Springer (HOU) (FanDuel: $4,100 / DraftKings: $5,600) – Springer only has two hits since the All-Star break but is seeing the ball well with six walks and no strikeouts. He will face Mariners’ right-hander Sam Gaviglio who has allowed 1.99 HR/9 to right-handed hitters this year.

OF – Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) (FanDuel: $3,900 / DraftKings: $4,600) – I know he just hit two homers last night but he can hit them in bunches so I’m going back to him tonight playing at home against Phillies’ right-hander Vince Velasquez who has allowed 2.33 HR/9 to right-handed hitters this season.

Longshot – Yasiel Puig (LAD) (FanDuel: $2,500 / DraftKings: $4,400) – FanDuel refuses to increase Puig’s salary so he should continue to be a cheap GPP option that has shown great power with 18 homers this season (17 versus righties) and gets a favorable park adjustment in Chicago against the White Sox and right-hander Miguel Gonzalez.

Cheap Pitching options
FanDuel – Blake Snell ($6,400) – yep, just one option, the cheap pitching options on FD are ugly tonight
DraftKings – Ivan Nova ($7,600), Blake Snell ($6,600), John Lackey ($6,200)

 

Friday, July 14 –  Results

Pos Name HR FD Pts
C Buster Posey 1 28.2
1B Ryan Zimmerman 0 3.0
2B Robinson Cano 1 31.7
3B Freddie Freeman 1 25.2
SS Didi Gregorius 0 0.0
OF Bryce Harper 2 47.1
OF Adam Duvall 0 9.0
OF Steven Souza 0 3.0
Longshot Kyle Seager 0 6.0

 

Season Results

Pos Picks HR HR Rate Avg FD Pts
C 21 6 28.6% 11.77
1B 25 7 28.0% 12.25
2B 24 5 20.8% 10.72
SS 23 5 21.7% 13.80
3B 24 4 16.7% 8.30
OF 74 20 27.0% 12.61
Longshot 22 4 18.2% 11.47
Total 213 51 23.9% 11.80

 

If you have any suggestions or feedback for the article, follow me and hit me up on Twitter @Rotopilot

 

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Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

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