Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (7/21)

Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

Only a couple of long balls from my Tuesday night lineup but some solid fantasy points from a couple of other hitters without a homer still made it a solid lineup. Friday’s 14-game night main slate looks like a fun one with either ace pitchers or gas can pitchers taking the mound. You can even get to a borderline ace pitching option in Jeff Samardzija if you use my longshot in your lineup.

Prices included for FanDuel and DraftKings to help find where the best value may be and positions are based on FanDuel.

So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…

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C – Yasmani Grandal (LAD) (FanDuel: $2,900 / DraftKings: $3,500) – With Jaime Garcia traded to the Twins, I expect righty Aaron Blair to get the start for the Braves. This is significant since Grandal mashes righties at home with a .389 wOBA and .267 ISO including hitting a long ball against a righty at home last night. If a righty doesn’t start or Grandal is out of the lineup then pivot to either Brian McCann or Evan Gattis.

1B – Chris Davis (BAL) (FanDuel: $3,300 / DraftKings: $4,000) – Davis is heating up at the plate with three homers over the last three games. All three homers have come off righties which is what Davis will get tonight when he faces Mike Fiers.

2B – Brian Dozier (MIN) (FanDuel: $3,600 / DraftKings: $4,500) – Dozier has been hot since the All-Star break with at least one hit in all six games including a pair of homers and a total of five extra-base hits. He has taken Anibal Sanchez deep three times in 32 career at-bats.

SS – Marwin Gonzalez (HOU) (FanDuel: $3,500 / DraftKings: $4,400) – With Carlos Correa out, Gonzalez is playing SS and has already been moved to short on FanDuel. DraftKings get with it! Love the power-hitting Gonzalez at SS against righty Ubaldo Jimenez. Gonzalez has a .420 wOBA and .271 ISO versus righties this season.

3B – Mike Moustakas (KC) (FanDuel: $3,200 / DraftKings: $3,600) – Moustakas has six hits over his last three games and has a .279 ISO versus righties this season. He will face White Sox righty James Shields who has allowed 3.86 HR/9 to lefties this season and the temps will be hot with the wind blowing out in KC tonight.

OF – Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) (FanDuel: $4,300 / DraftKings: $5,300) – It’s hard not to put Stanton on this list with how hot he is (4 HR over last three games). So, I’m not going to get cute and neither should you. Ride the streak, oh and it doesn’t hurt that he is facing Homer Bailey.

OF – Marcell Ozuna (MIA) (FanDuel: $3,700 / DraftKings: $4,500) – Unlike Stanton, Ozuna hasn’t homered since July 5th but a matchup with Homer Bailey in Cincy should put an end to that. Bailey has allowed a .515 wOBA and 2.89 HR/9 to righties through his first five starts.

OF – Josh Reddick (HOU) (FanDuel: $2,900 / DraftKings: $4,400) – Reddick has hit all nine of his homers off righties this season with a .226 ISO. He will face Orioles’ right-hander Ubaldo Jimenez who has allowed 3.26 HR/9 to lefties this season.

Longshot – Marcus Semein (OAK) (FanDuel: $2,300 / DraftKings: $3,300) – Semein has a career .198 ISO versus lefties and will face Mets’ lefty Steven Matz who has allowed 12 runs over his last two starts and has allowed 2.43 HR/9 to righties this season.

Cheap Pitching options
FanDuel – Jeff Samardzija ($8,800), Trevor Cahill ($8,600), Trevor Bauer ($7,600)
DraftKings – Jeff Samardzija ($9,100), Aaron Nola ($8,400), Trevor Cahill ($8,300), Trevor Bauer ($6,200)

 

Tuesday, July 18 –  Results

Pos Name HR FD Pts
C Salvador Perez 0 6.5
1B Cody Bellinger 0 15.5
2B Rougned Odor 0 6.0
3B Jake Lamb 0 22.2
SS Paul DeJong 0 9.2
OF Mike Trout 1 22.2
OF George Springer 0 15.7
OF Giancarlo Stanton 1 18.7
Longshot Yasiel Puig 0 0.0

 

Season Results

Pos Picks HR HR Rate Avg FD Pts
C 22 6 27.3% 11.53
1B 26 7 26.9% 12.37
2B 25 5 20.0% 10.53
SS 24 5 20.8% 13.61
3B 25 4 16.0% 8.86
OF 77 22 28.6% 12.86
Longshot 23 4 17.4% 10.97
Total 222 53 23.9% 11.84

 

If you have any suggestions or feedback for the article, follow me and hit me up on Twitter @Rotopilot

 


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Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

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