Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (7/25)

Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

Only one long ball from my crew on Friday but every player on the list did produce at least some fantasy points including my longshot Marcus Semien who scored 28.2 FanDuel points despite not hitting a home run. My list of Tuesday’s 14-game slate has some value hitting options so that you can pay up into the midrange for your pitchers where there are plenty of options to choose from.

Prices included for FanDuel and DraftKings to help find where the best value may be and positions are based on FanDuel.

So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…

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C – Gary Sanchez (NYY) (FanDuel: $3,300 / DraftKings: $4,400) – Sanchez has seen his price drop a little bit, so now is the perfect time to jump on the slugger as he returns home to face Reds’ righty Luis Castillo who has allowed a .349 wOBA and 1.80 HR/9 to right-handed batters this season.

1B – Lucas Duda (NYM) (FanDuel: $3,400 / DraftKings: $4,100) – Duda has a .382 wOBA and .302 ISO versus righties this season and has hit a pair of homers off righty Jhoulys Chacin in six career at-bats.

2B – Rougned Odor (TEX) (FanDuel: $2,900 / DraftKings: $3,700) – Odor seems to hit homers in bunches, so after hitting two long balls on Sunday, he has another good opportunity to go deep on Tuesday with a .265 ISO at home versus righties and playing in the warm weather in Texas against a right-hander.

SS – Didi Gregorius (NYY) (FanDuel: $3,500 / DraftKings: $4,300) – Feels like I pick Didi a lot. I guess that will happen when a SS has 14 homers on the season (hit two on Sunday). He has hit 13 of his 14 homers off right-handers and will face righty Luis Castillo who has also allowed 1.80 HR/9 to lefties this season.

3B – Freddie Freeman (ATL) (FanDuel: $3,600 / DraftKings: $5,300) – Freeman’s price is too cheap on FanDuel for a hitter as good as Freeman. He is also in a good spot playing in hitter-friendly Arizona against righty Taijuan Walker who has allowed 2.65 HR/9 to lefties at home this season.

OF – David Peralta (ARI) (FanDuel: $3,400 / DraftKings: $4,500) – Peralta is batting .350 in July and has .397 wOBA and .225 ISO at home versus righties. He will face Braves’ righty Mike Foltynewicz who has allowed a .373 wOBA and 1.70 HR/9 to lefties this season.

OF – Jose Bautista (TOR) (FanDuel: $3,200 / DraftKings: $3,600) – Bautista has a .191 ISO versus righties this season and will face right-hander Sonny Gray who has allowed 2.03 HR/9 on the road to righties this season. Bautista is also 5-for-12 with a homer off Gray in his career.

OF – Gerardo Parra (COL) (FanDuel: $3,100 / DraftKings: $4,800) – Parra is a BvP special for Tuesday. He has crushed Lance Lynn in his career going 13-for-26 with four doubles, three triples and three home runs. His price is too high on DraftKings even with his strong BvP, heck you can get Giancarlo Stanton for the same price.

Longshot – Mitch Moreland (BOS) (FanDuel: $2,400 / DraftKings: $3,300) – Moreland has hit all 12 of his homers off righties this season for a .191 ISO. He will face Mariners’ right-hander Felix Hernandez who has allowed 1.82 HR/9 to lefties this season.

Cheap Pitching options
FanDuel – Charlie Morton ($8,600), Jameson Taillon ($8,400), Jacob Faria ($8,400)
DraftKings – Jacob Faria ($8,500), Drew Pomeranz ($7,800), Kenta Maeda ($7,600), Jose Berrios ($7,100)

 

Friday, July 21 –  Results

Pos Name HR FD Pts
C Yasmani Grandal 0 12.5
1B Chris Davis 0 3.0
2B Brian Dozier 0 3.0
3B Marwin Gonzalez 0 9.0
SS Mike Moustakas 1 21.7
OF Giancarlo Stanton 0 12.2
OF Marcell Ozuna 0 6.0
OF Josh Reddick 0 6.5
Longshot Marcus Semien 0 28.2

 

Season Results

Pos Picks HR HR Rate Avg FD Pts
C 23 6 26.1% 11.57
1B 27 7 25.9% 12.03
2B 26 5 19.2% 10.24
SS 25 6 24.0% 13.94
3B 26 4 15.4% 8.87
OF 80 22 27.5% 12.68
Longshot 24 4 16.7% 11.69
Total 231 54 23.4% 11.82

 

If you have any suggestions or feedback for the article, follow me and hit me up on Twitter @Rotopilot

 

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Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

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