Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (7/28)

Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

There are so many value home run hitters on Friday night’s big 15-game slate, especially on FanDuel, that you can fill out a lineup and still get a top flight pitching option. Hopefully, we can start off the weekend with a bang (or six or seven)!

Download the GoingFor2 App for iOS & Andriod>>> 

 

Join the official GoingFor2 Facebook Group Chat>>>

 

C – Brian McCann (HOU) (FanDuel: $2,800 / DraftKings: $3,900) – McCann has hit three homers in eight games since the All-Star break. He will face Jordan Zimmermann who has allowed four or more runs in four of his last five starts including four homers during that stretch.

1B – Edwin Encarnacion (CLE) (FanDuel: $3,800 / DraftKings: $5,100) – Encarnacion has .389 wOBA and .176 ISO versus lefties this season and faces a home run prone lefty in Derek Holland who has given up seven homers over his last three starts. Oh, and Encarnacion is 7-for-20 with two double and three homers off Holland in his career.

2B – Wilmer Flores (NYM) (FanDuel: $2,700 / DraftKings: $4,200) – Flores is always a cheap option when he faces a lefty and he has been hot recently with four homers over his last seven games. He will face lefty Ariel Miranda who has allowed 1.93 HR/9 to righties this year. It’s a match made in heaven! Pivot to Rougned Odor on DK, where Flores only qualifies at 1B/3B.

SS – Jody Mercer (PIT) (FanDuel: $2,600 / DraftKings: $3,500) – Mercer has two homers over his last six games and has the BvP edge against Travis Wood going 6-for-17 with three doubles and two homers in his career.

3B – Freddie Freeman (ATL) (FanDuel: $3,800 / DraftKings: $4,600) – I will keep using Freeman every day until his price gets over $4,000 on FD where it should be. He has a .481 wOBA and .384 ISO versus righties this season and faces right-hander Jeremy Hellickson who has allowed 1.84 HR/9 to lefties this year.

OF – Jose Bautista (TOR) (FanDuel: $3,300 / DraftKings: $3,800) – Bautista has doubled in three straight games and has hit 12 of his 14 homers off righties. He will face Parker Bridwell who has allowed 1.99 HR/9 to righties this season.

OF – Seth Smith (BAL) (FanDuel: $3,200 / DraftKings: $3,600) – High temps (upper 90s) in Texas tonight for Smith and the Orioles. He will be facing right-hander Andrew Cashner who Smith is 3-for-7 against with a pair of doubles and a homer.

OF – Corey Dickerson (TB) (FanDuel: $2,800 / DraftKings: $4,000) – Dickerson went deep in New York last night and has a good opportunity to do it again against Masahiro Tanaka who Dickerson has owned batting .444 with two doubles and three homers in 18 at-bats.

Longshot – Derek Fisher (HOU) (FanDuel: $2,200 / DraftKings: $3,700) – Fisher has hit 21 homers in Triple-A this season and a pair of long balls in the majors in just seven games. He will face Zimmermann who has allowed a .386 wOBA and 1.94 HR/9 to lefties this season.

Cheap Pitching options
FanDuel – Alex Wood ($10,000), Robbie Ray ($9,200), Jose Quintana ($8,700)
DraftKings – Robbie Ray ($9,400), Jose Quintana ($9,800), Masahiro Tanaka ($7,800), Jaime Garcia ($6,900)

 

Tuesday, July 25 –  Results

Pos Name HR FD Pts
C Gary Sanchez NA NA
1B Lucas Duda 0 0.0
2B Rougned Odor 1 27.7
3B Freddie Freeman 0 12.2
SS Didi Gregorius 1 25.2
OF David Peralta 0 0.0
OF Jose Bautista 0 12.5
OF Gerardo Parra 0 9.5
Longshot Mitch Moreland 0 3.0

 

Season Results

Pos Picks HR HR Rate Avg FD Pts
C 23 6 26.1% 11.57
1B 28 7 25.0% 11.60
2B 27 6 22.2% 10.89
SS 26 7 26.9% 14.37
3B 27 4 14.8% 8.99
OF 83 22 26.5% 12.49
Longshot 25 4 16.0% 11.34
Total 239 56 23.4% 11.80

 

If you have any suggestions or feedback for the article, follow me and hit me up on Twitter @Rotopilot

 


Go for 2 with our 1 000 newsletter subscribers. Because No One Remembers the Extra Point!

Select list(s):


The following two tabs change content below.

Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

Leave a Reply

Be the First to Comment!

Notify of
avatar
wpDiscuz

Pin It on Pinterest