Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (7/28)

There are so many value home run hitters on Friday night’s big 15-game slate, especially on FanDuel, that you can fill out a lineup and still get a top flight pitching option. Hopefully, we can start off the weekend with a bang (or six or seven)!

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C – Brian McCann (HOU) (FanDuel: $2,800 / DraftKings: $3,900) – McCann has hit three homers in eight games since the All-Star break. He will face Jordan Zimmermann who has allowed four or more runs in four of his last five starts including four homers during that stretch.

1B – Edwin Encarnacion (CLE) (FanDuel: $3,800 / DraftKings: $5,100) – Encarnacion has .389 wOBA and .176 ISO versus lefties this season and faces a home run prone lefty in Derek Holland who has given up seven homers over his last three starts. Oh, and Encarnacion is 7-for-20 with two double and three homers off Holland in his career.

2B – Wilmer Flores (NYM) (FanDuel: $2,700 / DraftKings: $4,200) – Flores is always a cheap option when he faces a lefty and he has been hot recently with four homers over his last seven games. He will face lefty Ariel Miranda who has allowed 1.93 HR/9 to righties this year. It’s a match made in heaven! Pivot to Rougned Odor on DK, where Flores only qualifies at 1B/3B.

SS – Jody Mercer (PIT) (FanDuel: $2,600 / DraftKings: $3,500) – Mercer has two homers over his last six games and has the BvP edge against Travis Wood going 6-for-17 with three doubles and two homers in his career.

3B – Freddie Freeman (ATL) (FanDuel: $3,800 / DraftKings: $4,600) – I will keep using Freeman every day until his price gets over $4,000 on FD where it should be. He has a .481 wOBA and .384 ISO versus righties this season and faces right-hander Jeremy Hellickson who has allowed 1.84 HR/9 to lefties this year.

OF – Jose Bautista (TOR) (FanDuel: $3,300 / DraftKings: $3,800) – Bautista has doubled in three straight games and has hit 12 of his 14 homers off righties. He will face Parker Bridwell who has allowed 1.99 HR/9 to righties this season.

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OF – Seth Smith (BAL) (FanDuel: $3,200 / DraftKings: $3,600) – High temps (upper 90s) in Texas tonight for Smith and the Orioles. He will be facing right-hander Andrew Cashner who Smith is 3-for-7 against with a pair of doubles and a homer.

OF – Corey Dickerson (TB) (FanDuel: $2,800 / DraftKings: $4,000) – Dickerson went deep in New York last night and has a good opportunity to do it again against Masahiro Tanaka who Dickerson has owned batting .444 with two doubles and three homers in 18 at-bats.

Longshot – Derek Fisher (HOU) (FanDuel: $2,200 / DraftKings: $3,700) – Fisher has hit 21 homers in Triple-A this season and a pair of long balls in the majors in just seven games. He will face Zimmermann who has allowed a .386 wOBA and 1.94 HR/9 to lefties this season.

Cheap Pitching options
FanDuel – Alex Wood ($10,000), Robbie Ray ($9,200), Jose Quintana ($8,700)
DraftKings – Robbie Ray ($9,400), Jose Quintana ($9,800), Masahiro Tanaka ($7,800), Jaime Garcia ($6,900)

 

Tuesday, July 25 –  Results

Pos Name HR FD Pts
C Gary Sanchez NA NA
1B Lucas Duda 0 0.0
2B Rougned Odor 1 27.7
3B Freddie Freeman 0 12.2
SS Didi Gregorius 1 25.2
OF David Peralta 0 0.0
OF Jose Bautista 0 12.5
OF Gerardo Parra 0 9.5
Longshot Mitch Moreland 0 3.0

 

Season Results

Pos Picks HR HR Rate Avg FD Pts
C 23 6 26.1% 11.57
1B 28 7 25.0% 11.60
2B 27 6 22.2% 10.89
SS 26 7 26.9% 14.37
3B 27 4 14.8% 8.99
OF 83 22 26.5% 12.49
Longshot 25 4 16.0% 11.34
Total 239 56 23.4% 11.80

 

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