Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (7/29)

With a big day from Andrew McCutchen and Khris Davis with two homers (told you he would hit a homer off the Rangers’ bullpen) I have pushed my overall success rate over the 25% mark. It will take some work but I hope to approach the 30% mark by the end of the season. We have a 14-game night slate to evaluate for Friday with a lot of good options including some with strong BvP numbers to support an already good matchup. A few stacks I like with HR upside tonight include the Royals, Rays and Padres.

So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…

C – Brian McCann (NYY) (FanDuel: $3,100 / DraftKings: $3,200) – McCann makes the list again due to his great success against the Rays’ Jake Odorizzi who he has gone 12-for-23 with three homers against in his career.

1B – Kendrys Morales (KC) (FanDuel: $3,000 / DraftKings: $3,300) – Morales will face Rangers’ righty A.J. Griffin who has allowed 2.32 HR/9 to lefties this season. Morales has also had some success in limited at-bats against Griffin going 3-for-8 with a homer.

2B – Brian Dozier (MIN) (FanDuel: $3,200 / DraftKings: $4,000) – Dozier has a huge .372 ISO against lefties this season and has had success against lefty Jose Quintana with four homers in 40 career at-bats.

SS – Brad Miller (TB) (FanDuel: $3,500 / DraftKings: $3,700) – Miller has hit 14 of his 15 homers against righties and has a .269 ISO at home against righties this season. He will play at home against Yankees’ righty Ivan Nova who has allowed 1.76 HR/9 to lefties this season.

3B – Todd Frazier (CHW) (FanDuel: $3,400 / DraftKings: $4,700) – Frazier has hit 22 of his 29 homers against righties this season for a .242 ISO against righties and will face Twins’ righty Ricky Nolasco who has reverse splits allowing more damage to righties including a 1.75 HR/9 this season.

OF – George Springer (HOU) (FanDuel: $3,700 / DraftKings: $5,000) – Springer has a .294 ISO against lefties this season and will face Tigers’ lefty Matt Boyd who has allowed all six of his homers this season to righties for a 1.45 HR/9.

OF – Matt Kemp (SD) (FanDuel: $3,200 / DraftKings: $4,800) – Hard to believe Kemp is the only Padre hitter I went with tonight (definitely consider Wil Myers also). Kemp is in a great spot with seven homers over his last 11 games and a .352 ISO against lefties this season. He will face Reds’ lefty Brandon Finnegan who has allowed 21 homers to righties this season (1.64 HR/9).

OF – Corey Dickerson (TB) (FanDuel: $2,800 / DraftKings: $3,300) – Dickerson is another lefty Rays’ bat to use against Nova. Dickerson has hit all 14 of his homers against righties this season with a .257 ISO.

Longshot – Alex Gordon (KC) (FanDuel: $2,600 / DraftKings: $3,900) – Gordon is another strong BvP play tonight. He has gone 6-for-7 with a double and homer off A.J. Griffin.

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Wednesday, July 27 –  Results

Pos Name HR FD Pts
C Salvador Perez 0 9.2
1B Albert Pujols 0 6.5
2B Gordon Beckham 0 28.1
SS Carlos Correa 0 12.7
3B Adrian Beltre 0 9.5
OF Khris Davis 2 46.9
OF Mike Trout 0 12.2
OF Andrew McCutchen 1 41.4
Longshot Mark Teixeira 0 3.0

 

Season Results

Pos Picks HR HR Rate Avg FD Pts
C 19 8 42.1% 15.30
1B 18 4 22.2% 10.97
2B 19 1 5.3% 10.08
SS 19 4 21.1% 11.65
3B 19 4 21.1% 13.98
OF 57 18 31.6% 15.80
Longshot 11 2 18.2% 10.88
Total 162 41 25.3% 13.50

If you have any suggestions or feedback for the article, follow me and hit me up on Twitter @Rotopilot

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Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

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