Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (7/29)

With a big day from Andrew McCutchen and Khris Davis with two homers (told you he would hit a homer off the Rangers’ bullpen) I have pushed my overall success rate over the 25% mark. It will take some work but I hope to approach the 30% mark by the end of the season. We have a 14-game night slate to evaluate for Friday with a lot of good options including some with strong BvP numbers to support an already good matchup. A few stacks I like with HR upside tonight include the Royals, Rays and Padres.

So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…

C – Brian McCann (NYY) (FanDuel: $3,100 / DraftKings: $3,200) – McCann makes the list again due to his great success against the Rays’ Jake Odorizzi who he has gone 12-for-23 with three homers against in his career.

1B – Kendrys Morales (KC) (FanDuel: $3,000 / DraftKings: $3,300) – Morales will face Rangers’ righty A.J. Griffin who has allowed 2.32 HR/9 to lefties this season. Morales has also had some success in limited at-bats against Griffin going 3-for-8 with a homer.

2B – Brian Dozier (MIN) (FanDuel: $3,200 / DraftKings: $4,000) – Dozier has a huge .372 ISO against lefties this season and has had success against lefty Jose Quintana with four homers in 40 career at-bats.

SS – Brad Miller (TB) (FanDuel: $3,500 / DraftKings: $3,700) – Miller has hit 14 of his 15 homers against righties and has a .269 ISO at home against righties this season. He will play at home against Yankees’ righty Ivan Nova who has allowed 1.76 HR/9 to lefties this season.

3B – Todd Frazier (CHW) (FanDuel: $3,400 / DraftKings: $4,700) – Frazier has hit 22 of his 29 homers against righties this season for a .242 ISO against righties and will face Twins’ righty Ricky Nolasco who has reverse splits allowing more damage to righties including a 1.75 HR/9 this season.

OF – George Springer (HOU) (FanDuel: $3,700 / DraftKings: $5,000) – Springer has a .294 ISO against lefties this season and will face Tigers’ lefty Matt Boyd who has allowed all six of his homers this season to righties for a 1.45 HR/9.

OF – Matt Kemp (SD) (FanDuel: $3,200 / DraftKings: $4,800) – Hard to believe Kemp is the only Padre hitter I went with tonight (definitely consider Wil Myers also). Kemp is in a great spot with seven homers over his last 11 games and a .352 ISO against lefties this season. He will face Reds’ lefty Brandon Finnegan who has allowed 21 homers to righties this season (1.64 HR/9).

OF – Corey Dickerson (TB) (FanDuel: $2,800 / DraftKings: $3,300) – Dickerson is another lefty Rays’ bat to use against Nova. Dickerson has hit all 14 of his homers against righties this season with a .257 ISO.

Longshot – Alex Gordon (KC) (FanDuel: $2,600 / DraftKings: $3,900) – Gordon is another strong BvP play tonight. He has gone 6-for-7 with a double and homer off A.J. Griffin.

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Wednesday, July 27 –  Results

Pos Name HR FD Pts
C Salvador Perez 0 9.2
1B Albert Pujols 0 6.5
2B Gordon Beckham 0 28.1
SS Carlos Correa 0 12.7
3B Adrian Beltre 0 9.5
OF Khris Davis 2 46.9
OF Mike Trout 0 12.2
OF Andrew McCutchen 1 41.4
Longshot Mark Teixeira 0 3.0

 

Season Results

Pos Picks HR HR Rate Avg FD Pts
C 19 8 42.1% 15.30
1B 18 4 22.2% 10.97
2B 19 1 5.3% 10.08
SS 19 4 21.1% 11.65
3B 19 4 21.1% 13.98
OF 57 18 31.6% 15.80
Longshot 11 2 18.2% 10.88
Total 162 41 25.3% 13.50

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