Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (7/6)

Hope everyone had a good 4th of July weekend! I return today with some home run predictions for tonight’s eight-game slate. Looks like a good night for the long ball with numerous home run prone pitchers on the hill and some hitter-friendly ballparks.

Note that I have started adding the FanDuel and DraftKings prices for each player listed. Also, note that positions listed are based on FanDuel.

So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…

 

C – Evan Gattis (HOU) (FanDuel: $2,500 / DraftKings: $3,000) – Gattis has hit four of his home runs at home against lefties this season with a .289 ISO and will face Mariners’ lefty Wade LeBlanc in Houston.

1B – Jose Abreu (CHW) (FanDuel: $2,900 / DraftKings: $3,400) – Abreu has hit nine of his 11 homers against righties this season and has a better ISO and wOBA against righties in his career. He will face Yankees’ righty Michael Pineda who has allowed 1.75 HR/9 to righties this season.

2B – Brett Lawrie (CHW) (FanDuel: $2,500 / DraftKings: $3,700) – Lawrie is another righty bat facing off against home run prone Pineda tonight. Lawrie has taken Pineda deep once in five career at-bats and his hit 10 of his 11 homers against righties this season. It could be a good night to stack some White Sox bats.

SS – Xander Bogaerts (BOS) (FanDuel: $3,400 / DraftKings: $4,900) – Bogaerts hasn’t homered since June 18 but has hit the ball hard over his last three games and will face Rangers lefty Martin Perez who has allowed four homers over his last three starts.

3B – Evan Longoria (TB) (FanDuel: $3,400 / DraftKings: $3,800) – Longoria has a .249 ISO and has hit 16 of his 18 homers against righties this season. He will get a favorable matchup against the Angels’ right Jered Weaver who has allowed 1.90 HR/9 this season.

OF – Mookie Betts (BOS) (FanDuel: $4,000 / DraftKings: $5,500) – Betts has homered in two of his last four games and has collected 11 hits over his last five games. Betts has four homers in just 37 plate appearances against lefties at home this season and will face lefty Martin Perez who has allowed all 10 of his homers to righties this season.

OF – Mike Trout (LAA) (FanDuel: $4,100 / DraftKings: $5,400) – Trout got a day off yesterday so he should be ready to go tonight against Rays lefty Drew Smyly who has allowed 1.77 HR/9 to righties and seven multiple homer games over his 16 starts this season.

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OF – Matt Holliday (STL) (FanDuel: $2,800 / DraftKings: $4,200) – Holliday will face Pirates lefty Jon Niese who has struggled with the long ball this season allowing 19 home runs this season including 1.96 HR/9 to righties while Holliday has a .256 ISO against lefties.

Longshot – Brett Wallace (SD) (FanDuel: $2,100 / DraftKings: $3,400) Wallace has 13 extra-base hits including five homers against righties this season for a .176 ISO. He should get the start against home run prone righty Shelby Miller who has allowed 1.82 HR/9 to lefties with the game playing in hitter-friendly Arizona.

Friday, July 1 – Results

Pos Name HR FD Pts
C James McCann 0 12.2
1B Kendrys Morales 1 22.2
2B Brian Dozier 0 6.2
SS Marcus Semien 1 22.2
3B Nick Castellanos 0 15.5
OF Giancarlo Stanton 0 3.0
OF Robbie Grossman 0 3.0
OF Justin Upton 0 3.0
Longshot Scott Van Slyke DNP

 

Season Results

Pos Picks HR HR Rate Avg FD Pts
C 16 6 37.5% 14.65
1B 15 4 26.7% 11.31
2B 16 1 6.3% 9.43
SS 16 4 25.0% 11.89
3B 16 4 25.0% 14.50
OF 48 13 27.1% 14.53
Longshot 10 2 20.0% 11.67
Total 137 34 24.8% 13.07

 

If you have any suggestions or feedback for the article, follow me and hit me up on Twitter @Rotopilot

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Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

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