Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (8/15)

Another solid Swing for the Fences column on Friday with four home runs. Today’s article will focus primarily on hitters that are hot right now. I am a firm believer in streaks both hot and cold and while it is difficult to predict when a streak will start or stop you can definitely see when a player is in the middle of one. So Tuesday’s home run predictions will look to “ride the wave” of some players currently in a hot streak at the plate and hope their positive mojo continues for at least one more day.

Prices included for FanDuel and DraftKings to help find where the best value may be and positions are based on FanDuel.

So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…

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C – Yasmani Grandal (LAD) (FanDuel: $2,800 / DraftKings: $3,600) – Grandal homered on Sunday and is always in play at home against a righty which has resulted in 9 of his 15 homers this season and is a trend from last year.

1B – Logan Morrison (TB) (FanDuel: $2,900 / DraftKings: $3,400) – Morrison may not be hot right now but he has had success against Marco Estrada in his career batting .333 with three homers in 18 at-bats.

2B – Brian Dozier (MIN) (FanDuel: $3,900 / DraftKings: $4,400) – Dozier has seven hits over his last three games including a homer and is 12-for-29 (.414) with six doubles and a pair of homers off Danny Salazar in his career.

SS – Paul DeJong (STL) (FanDuel: $3,700 / DraftKings: $4,300) – DeJong has homered in back-to-back games and with the wind blowing out toward the Green Monster in Boston and facing Rick Porcello with his 1.55 HR/9 allowed to righties this season, DeJong could make it three straight.

3B – Travis Shaw (MIL) (FanDuel: $3,600 / DraftKings: $4,600) –  Josh Donaldson is also a prime candidate at the same price on DK but Shaw is no slouch with a homer in his last game and a 10-for-13 mark with three homers off Ivan Nova in his career.

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OF – Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) (FanDuel: $4,500 / DraftKings: $5,200) – There is no one in the world hotter than Stanton is right now with 10 home runs in his last 11 games including five straight. A matchup with Madison Bumgarner might seem like the end of the streak but Stanton is 8-for-16 with five doubles and a homer off him in his career.

OF – Justin Upton (DET) (FanDuel: $3,900 / DraftKings: $5,000) – Upton has homered in two of his last three games and has eight hits over his last five contests. He will be playing the heat of Texas against A.J. Griffin who has allowed 5.79 HR/9 to righties at home this season.

OF – Jay Bruce (CLE) (FanDuel: $3,300 / DraftKings: $4,500) – Bruce has six hits over his last four games including a pair of doubles and will face Bartolo Colon who Bruce has hit two homers off in just eight at-bats in his career.

Longshot – Rougned Odor (TEX) (FanDuel: $2,500 / DraftKings: $3,200) – Odor has five hits including a pair of doubles in his last two games and will face Justin Verlander who has allowed 1.85 HR/9 on the road to lefties this season.

Cheap Pitching options
FanDuel – Kyle Hendricks ($7,700), Dan Straily ($7,300), Mark Leiter ($6,400)
DraftKings – Dinelson Lamet ($8,500), Kyle Hendricks ($7,700), Mark Leiter ($6,800), Dan Straily ($6,500)

 

Friday, August 11 –  Results

Pos Name HR FD Pts
C Alex Avila 1 28.2
1B Eric Thames 1 31.7
2B Robinson Cano 0 9.2
3B Miguel Sano 0 6.2
SS Corey Seager 0 3.0
OF Ryan Braun 0 18.2
OF Yoenis Cespedes 1 32.2
OF Kyle Schwarber 1 21.7
Longshot Kike Hernandez 0 3.0

 

Season Results

Pos Picks HR HR Rate Avg FD Pts
C 27 8 29.6% 12.39
1B 33 10 30.3% 12.41
2B 32 7 21.9% 11.35
SS 31 8 25.8% 13.96
3B 31 6 19.4% 10.06
OF 97 24 24.7% 12.40
Longshot 30 4 13.3% 10.98
Total 281 67 23.8% 12.04

 

If you have any suggestions or feedback for the article, follow me and hit me up on Twitter @Rotopilot

 

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Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

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