Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (8/4)

Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

My Tuesday lineup “only” had two home runs to speak of but the hitters in my lineup still went off with four players exceeding 25 FanDuel points and 7 out of 9 players scoring at least 12 FanDuel points. Couple that with not being on the Ace pitchers, Sale and Scherzer, who were both duds, and the lineup came in around 200 FanDuel points depending on which pitcher you went with. Maybe not enough to take down a GPP but a strong showing.

Is it considered the “dog days of summer” yet? It sure feels like it, either that or the long grind of MLB DFS is getting to me. In either case, my Swing for the Fences predictions will take a different look today as I go “bizarro world” and list Longshots at every position (under $2,700 on FanDuel) and then list my “one stud” for the Friday night 13-game slate. WARNING: You probably shouldn’t roster every single one of these guys in one lineup otherwise you will have a bunch of money left even after getting any pitcher you want.

Prices included for FanDuel and DraftKings to help find where the best value may be and positions are based on FanDuel.

So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…

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C – Robinson Chirinos (TEX) (FanDuel: $2,200 / DraftKings: $2,700) – Chirinos has a .294 ISO versus right-handed pitchers this season and will face righty Bartolo Colon who has allowed 1.35 HR/9 to right-handed hitters and could be making his last career start at any time. Chirinos is 3-for-6 with a homer off Colon in his career.

1B – Tyler Moore (MIA) (FanDuel: $2,000 / DraftKings: $3,000) – Moore has a .273 ISO versus righties this season and has a good history against righty knuckleballer R.A. Dickey going 4-for-6 with a pair of long balls off him in his career. (Yes, that is Tyler Moore in the Featured Image for the article today)

2B – Brad Miller (TB) (FanDuel: $2,700 / DraftKings: $2,700) – Miller has been bad this season with only four homers in 208 at-bats but he did hit 30 homers last year and will face a rookie righty making his first big league start.

SS – Jordy Mercer (PIT) (FanDuel: $2,300 / DraftKings: $2,900) – Mercer has hit three doubles over his last four games and has had success against opposing pitcher Travis Wood going 6-for-19 with three doubles and two homers in his career.

3B – Luis Valbuena (LAA) (FanDuel: $2,500 / DraftKings: $3,000) – Valbuena hits in the middle of the Angels lineup and has hit 10 of his 11 homers off righties this season. He will face A’s righty Jharel Cotton who has allowed a .352 wOBA and 1.87 HR/9 to lefties this season.

OF – Chris Young (BOS) (FanDuel: $2,400 / DraftKings: $3,400) – Although it hasn’t worked out this season, historically Young has done very well against left-handed pitching with a .209 career ISO. He will face lefty Carlos Rodon who has allowed 1.31 HR/9 to righties in his career, plus the wind is blowing out to left field over the Green Monster, just sayin’.

OF – Jake Marisnick (HOU) (FanDuel: $2,300 / DraftKings: $4,500) – Marisnick has been tremendous at home this season especially against righties with seven homers in just 46 at-bats. He will face right-hander Cesar Valdez who has allowed 1.95 HR/9 to righties in his career.

OF – Sean Rodriguez (ATL) (FanDuel: $2,200 / DraftKings: $2,500) – Rodriguez has been getting some starts in LF with Matt Kemp out including last night when he had two hits including a double. He will face lefty Adam Conley who has allowed 1.06 HR/9 to righties in his career.

Longshot Stud of the Day – Mike Trout (LAA) (FanDuel: $5,000 / DraftKings: $5,300) – Trout is on fire with homers in back-to-back games and nine hits over his last five games.

Pitching options
FanDuel – Jacob deGrom ($10,500), Yu Darvish ($9,300), Brad Peacock ($8,400)
DraftKings – Jacob deGrom ($12,700), Yu Darvish ($11,000), Brad Peacock ($10,300)

 

Tuesday, August 1 –  Results

Pos Name HR FD Pts
C Gary Sanchez 0 15.4
1B Logan Morrison 1 25.2
2B Robinson Cano 0 28.7
3B Kyle Seager 0 12.2
SS Didi Gregorius 1 28.7
OF Corey Dickerson 0 6.2
OF Seth Smith 0 28.9
OF Trey Mancini 0 12.5
Longshot Matt Holliday 0 9.0

 

Season Results

Pos Picks HR HR Rate Avg FD Pts
C 25 6 24.0% 11.26
1B 30 8 26.7% 11.87
2B 29 6 20.7% 11.36
SS 28 8 28.6% 14.37
3B 29 4 13.8% 8.89
OF 89 22 24.7% 12.32
Longshot 27 4 14.8% 11.29
Total 257 58 22.6% 11.79

 

If you have any suggestions or feedback for the article, follow me and hit me up on Twitter @Rotopilot

 

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Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

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