Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (9/1)

Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

Tuesday’s lineup saw three of my picks not play. However, of the six that did two of them hit homers with Giancarlo Stanton (of course) and Scott Schebler (my boy) going deep. The Friday night slate consists of 13 games with plenty of long ball hitters to choose from with a ton of terrible pitchers on the mound and some good hitting parks on the slate.

Prices included for FanDuel and DraftKings to help find where the best value may be and positions are based on FanDuel.

So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…

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C – Salvador Perez (KC) (FanDuel: $2,400 / DraftKings: $2,800) – Perez has hit 11 of his 21 homers on the road against right-handed pitching with a .301 ISO. He will be in Minnesota to face righty Dillon Gee who has allowed six homers in three starts this season.

1B – Mark Reynolds (COL) (FanDuel: $3,600 / DraftKings: $4,500) – Reynolds is reasonably priced for a power bat playing at Coors Field. He is 4-for-8 with a double and two homers off Taijuan Walker in his career.

2B – Neil Walker (MIL) (FanDuel: $2,900 / DraftKings: $3,500) – Walker has hit all 11 of his homers off of righties this season and will face right-hander Tanner Roark who has allowed 1.69 HR/9 to lefties this year.

SS – Elvis Andrus (TEX) (FanDuel: $3,900 / DraftKings: $4,500) – Andrus is batting .481 with five extra-base hits over his last six games and has a .202 ISO versus lefties this season.

mlb fanduel and draftkings lineup 9/13B – Josh Donaldson (TOR) (FanDuel: $3,400 / DraftKings: $4,300) – Donaldson hit 12 home runs in August and has a .260 ISO versus righties this season. He will face Orioles’ righty Kevin Gausman who has allowed 1.36 HR/9 to right-handed hitters this year.

OF – Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) (FanDuel: $4,900 / DraftKings: $5,600) – Stanton hasn’t homered in two games, so he’s due. All joking aside, he is 2-for-5 with a homer off Nick Pivetta and has a .353 ISO at home versus righties this season.

OF – Nelson Cruz (SEA) (FanDuel: $4,100 / DraftKings: $4,900) – Cruz has gone 6-for-11 with a pair of home runs off lefty Sean Manaea in his career and has a .220 ISO at home versus lefties this season.

OF – Ryan Braun (MIL) (FanDuel: $3,000 / DraftKings: $3,200) – Braun only hit one home run in August but still had seven doubles and a 39.5% hard hit rate. He is cheap and the home runs will come.

Longshot – Kendrys Morales (TOR) (FanDuel: $2,500 / DraftKings: $3,500) – Morales hit three homers last night and is still dirt cheap. He won’t hit three homers tonight but could stay hot against Gausman who has allowed 2.93 HR/9 at home to lefties this season.

Cheap Pitching options
FanDuel – Mike Leake ($6,500)
DraftKings – Jimmy Nelson ($8,400), Mike Clevinger ($8,200)

 

Tuesday, August 29 –  Results

Pos Name HR FD Pts
C Evan Gattis 0 0.0
1B Chris Davis 0 0.0
2B Daniel Murphy 0 22.2
3B Matt Davidson 0 0.0
SS Didi Gregorius NA NA
OF Giancarlo Stanton 1 25.2
OF Mike Trout NA NA
OF Scott Schebler 1 41.9
Longshot Chad Pinder NA NA

 

Season Results

Pos Picks HR HR Rate Avg FD Pts
C 31 8 25.8% 12.00
1B 37 11 29.7% 12.48
2B 36 8 22.2% 11.90
SS 34 8 23.5% 13.37
3B 35 7 20.0% 10.07
OF 108 30 27.8% 13.37
Longshot 33 4 12.1% 11.22
Total 314 76 24.2% 12.37

 

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Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

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