Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (9/5)

Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

Not a good night on Friday with only one home run from my list of hitters. We’ll give it another go on Tuesday night’s full 15-game slate. Note that I will try to continue posting this article every Tuesday and Friday through the rest of the MLB regular season but with the NFL starting, it might be difficult, especially on Friday. I’ll do my best to help you all out.

Prices included for FanDuel and DraftKings to help find where the best value may be and positions are based on FanDuel.

So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…

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C – Salvador Perez (KC) (FanDuel: $2,300 / DraftKings: $3,200) – I don’t like the catcher options tonight so I’m going cheap with Perez, who homered yesterday and has hit half of his 22 home runs this season on the road versus righties.

1B – Eric Thames (MIL) (FanDuel: $3,100 / DraftKings: $3,900) – Thames has destroyed the Reds this season and has homered in every career at-bat against Robert Stephenson (two).

2B – Ian Kinsler (DET) (FanDuel: $2,800 / DraftKings: $3,300) – Kinsler has a .368 wOBA and .242 ISO versus lefties this season and has had success against left-hander Jason Vargas in his career batting .355 with 12 extra-base hits (2 HR) in 62 at-bats.

SS – Trevor Stroy (COL) (FanDuel: $3,600 / DraftKings: $3,800) – I want some Rockies exposure tonight against lefty Ty Blach who has allowed six homers over his last four starts and has allowed 2.08 HR/9 to righties on the road this season. Story is 3-for-6 with a homer off Blach in his career.

3B – Nolan Arenado (COL) (FanDuel: $4,300 / DraftKings: $5,200) – Arenado at home against a lefty this season has a .539 wOBA and .475 ISO. Every lineup you build tonight should start with Arenado.

mlb fanduel and draftkings lineup 9/5OF – J.D. Martinez (ARI) (FanDuel: $4,000 / DraftKings: $4,600) – Martinez “might” not hit four home runs again tonight but he could still hit at least one going against a lefty with his .562 wOBA and massive .557 ISO.

OF – Aaron Judge (NYY) (FanDuel: $3,900 / DraftKings: $4,800) – Judge took four walks yesterday. I always feel that walks are a good indicator of an upcoming hot streak. He will face Jeremy Hellickson who has allowed 1.89 HR/9 to righties this season.

OF – George Springer (HOU) (FanDuel: $3,900 / DraftKings: $5,000) – Springer has faced Mariners’ lefty Ariel Miranda 13 times in his career and has hit four home runs.

Longshot – Brandon Moss (KC) (FanDuel: $2,100 / DraftKings: $3,400) – Moss has 15 of his 18 home runs this season off righties with a .222 ISO and will face right-hander Anibal Sanchez who has allowed 2.29 HR/9 to lefties this season.

Cheap Pitching options
FanDuel – Eduardo Rodriguez ($7,200), Michael Wacha ($6,900), Jason Vargas ($6,200)
DraftKings – Jason Vargas ($7,000), Michael Wacha ($6,900), Eduardo Rodriguez ($6,600)

 

Friday, September 1 –  Results

Pos Name HR FD Pts
C Salvador Perez 0 0.0
1B Mark Reynolds 0 9.2
2B Neil Walker 1 21.7
3B Josh Donaldson 0 3.0
SS Elvis Andrus 0 13.5
OF Giancarlo Stanton 0 6.0
OF Nelson Cruz 0 3.0
OF Ryan Braun 0 0.0
Longshot Kendrys Morales 0 0.0

 

Season Results

Pos Picks HR HR Rate Avg FD Pts
C 32 8 25.0% 11.63
1B 38 11 28.9% 12.39
2B 37 9 24.3% 12.17
SS 35 8 22.9% 13.37
3B 36 7 19.4% 9.88
OF 111 30 27.0% 13.09
Longshot 34 4 11.8% 10.89
Total 323 77 23.8% 12.20

 

If you have any suggestions or feedback for the article, follow me and hit me up on Twitter @Rotopilot

 


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Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

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