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Intro
Ah, Opening Day! The MLB is back with a full (minus the Reds/Nationals PPD) slate of action on the diamond. I will be back for my third season of providing the “Swing for the Fences” column where I attempt to predict which hitters will go deep, hit a long ball, take it yard, or smack a tater. The old Nike commercial says that “chicks dig the long ball” but so do DFS players as home runs are king, catapulting you up the leaderboard on just one swing of the bat.
I have had some moderate success predicting homers in my first two seasons. In 2016, I had a 22.6% success rate while all my hitters averaged 12.52 FanDuel. In 2017, I made a slight improvement with a 22.9% home run rate but suffered a slight dip in FanDuel points per game with 11.92. Overall, I seem to have found my baseline as I try to improve for the 2018 season.
Prices included for FanDuel and DraftKings to help find where the best value may be and positions are based on FanDuel.
So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…
Lineup
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C – Evan Gattis (HOU) (FanDuel: $2,500 / DraftKings: $3,300) – While FanDuel has basically eliminated catchers from their game by combining them with 1B and adding a Utility spot, I will still list a C that I think can go deep to help out those of you playing on DK. Gattis has a career .226 ISO against lefties and will face southpaw Cole Hamels who allowed a 1.27 HR/9 rate to right-handed hitters last season.
1B – Logan Morrison (MIN) (FanDuel: $2,500 / DraftKings: $4,100) – Morrison has a new address this season playing for the Twins but he brings along his strong track record against Dylan Bundy with a 5-for-12 mark including a double and two home runs over the last two seasons. He hit 32 of his 38 homers off righties last season for a .298 ISO while Bundy allowed a 1.35 HR/9 rate at home versus lefties last season.
2B – Jonathan Schoop (BAL) (FanDuel: $3,400 / DraftKings: $4,100) – You notice a mini-stack of Orioles right-handed bats on the list going against right-hander Jake Odorizzi who has reverse-splits over his career including last season when he allowed 2.08 HR/9 to righties. Schoop is 9-for-23 (.391) with four doubles and a homer off Odorizzi the last two seasons.
SS – Manny Machado (BAL) (FanDuel: $3,900 / DraftKings: $4,800) – Another Oriole to target is Machado who has mashed three homers off Odorizzi the last two season with a .296 average (27 ABs). Machado also fared better at home last season with a .256 ISO.
3B – Mike Moustakas (KC) (FanDuel: $3,300 / DraftKings: $3,800) – After a long offseason, Moustakas finally re-signed with the Royals. As his prize, he gets to face White Sox Opening Day starter… James Shields, let that sink in for a second. Moustakas is 5-for-10 with a double and homer off Shields in his career and posted a .268 ISO against righties last season. Meanwhile, Shields gave up a .388 wOBA and massive 2.82 HR/9 rate to left-handed hitters last season. Also, consider pairing Moustakas with Lucas Duda.
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OF – Mike Trout (LAA) (FanDuel: $4,800 / DraftKings: $5,400) – Not that you ever need a reason to roster Mike Trout but he has a good history against Kendall Graveman hitting .370 (10-for-27) with a pair of long balls and had a .359 ISO against right-handed pitchers last year.
OF – Aaron Judge (NYY) (FanDuel: $4,100 / DraftKings: $5,100) – Getting a piece of the Yankees power-connection (Judge/Stanton) will probably be a theme of the Swing for the Fences column this year. While I do like both against lefty J.A. Happ, Judge comes at a little bit of discount compared to Stanton. Judge has taken Happ deep once in seven career Abs while Happ allowed 1.18 HR/9 at home versus righties last season.
OF – Adam Jones (BAL) (FanDuel: $3,000 / DraftKings: $4,000) – Jones rounds out the three-man Orioles stack on the list today. He has hit at least 25 HRs in seven straight seasons and has done most of his damage at home against right-handed pitching with a career .213 ISO.
Longshot – Max Kepler (MIN) (FanDuel: $2,300 / DraftKings: $3,500) – Kepler does all his damage against right-handed pitching with 17 out of his 19 homers last year and a .212 ISO coming against righties. He’ll face Bundy who allowed 1.36 HR/9 to lefties last season and with Baltimore featuring some of the warmer temps on Opening Day the homers will have a better chance to be flying out there than many other parks.
Cheap Pitching options
FanDuel – Garrett Richards ($8,000), Danny Duffy ($7,700), Chase Anderson ($7,600)
DraftKings – Chris Archer ($8,500), Chase Anderson ($8,100), Danny Duffy ($7,700), Garrett Richards ($6,800)
If you have any suggestions or feedback for the article, follow me and hit me up on Twitter @Rotopilot
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