Disclaimer: The following are just some of my thoughts on the 3 game Thanksgiving slate. It does not mean I will only be rostering players in this write-up and my opinions are always subject to change. Also, the order in which the plays are laid out, especially at receiver, are not indicative of how much I like each play. I am always available on Twitter to give advice @EvanRosenberg0 if you have any last minute questions or decisions.
The Giants have allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season, are 25th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA, and are 7.5-point road underdogs to the Redskins. Kirk Cousins is both the most expensive quarterback and will be the highest owned, but there’s really no argument to be made against him from me.
People don’t like to roster (perceived) non-correlated/negatively correlated teammates in DFS. On a 3 game slate, you have to get weird with it to differentiate your lineups from everyone else in big fields. It is entirely possible for Rivers to throw for 3 touchdowns, 1 of which to Melvin Gordon, and Gordon to also score 1 on the ground. Also, if fading Gordon in a tournament, I like the idea of stacking up the passing game wiith Rivers, Keenan Allen, and Hunter Henry. Dallas is worse against the run, but they’re still bad against the pass; they rank 22nd in pass defense DVOA.
This is my favorite spot on the entire slate; the last two weeks, the Lions have given up 71.5 Draftkings points to opposing running backs on the Browns and Bears. According to Football Outsiders, the Lions’ defensive line ranks 29th in run stopping adjusted line yards…basically, the Lions are getting torched on the ground, and that should continue with the Vikings’ one-two punch on Thursday. Neither Latavius Murray nor Jerick McKinnon are projected to be highly owned, and I will be overweight on both. Murray is my favorite play on the entire slate for tournaments, getting 15+ touches in each of the past 5 games and 4 rushing touchdowns over that span. The Lions are 22nd ranked defense by DVOA compared to 11th in pass defense, meaning both RBs could see extensive work in this game. McKinnon has seen 14+ carries in 5 of his past 6 games with 34 total targets. One of my favorite ways to differentiate on short slates is to construct lineups that you never would on full slates, such as playing two running backs from the same team in one lineup.
The Cowboys are 30th in rush defense DVOA…they will once again be without Sean Lee…Melvin Gordon will be the highest owned running back and possibly overall player on Thanksgiving. For cash games I think you have to just build around him, but for large field tournaments, there’s a good case to be made for fading him. Austin Ekeler is getting more involved in the offense since the bye with 7 targets, 16 carries, and 3 touchdowns in 2 games. The Cowboys rank 24th in DVOA covering running backs out of the backfield. At nearly half the price of Gordon and little to no ownership, Ekeler could be a tournament winning pivot if he can keep finding the end zone.
Samaje Perine has not had a great start to his rookie season, but he’s all the Redskins have left now that Rob Kelley and Chris Thompson are both done for the season. The Redskins are 7.5-point home favorites against the 25th ranked rushing defense in the New York Football Giants. Perine had 23 carries for 117 yards and 1 touchdown last week against the Saints, and should see 20+ touches again this week at only $5,000 on Draftkings. On a full slate, Perine would be a cash lock so let’s not overthink it. Last week the Redskins signed Byron Marshall off the Eagles’ practice squad and it looks like he’s going to get thrown into the fire with Thompson’s injury. Marshall is a pass catching back who played wide receiver in college, so he could see passing down work immediately out of necessity. I think there’s a lot of merit to taking a dart throw on Marshall in the hopes that he gets a few catches and breaks one for a touchdown.
I don’t particularly like either Rod Smith or Theo Riddick, but I felt the need to mention them as a way to show how you could differentiate your lineups. If you are stacking the Chargers passing game with Rivers, Keenan Allen, and Hunter Henry, it’s not the worst play in the world to run it back with Rod Smith. If the game script goes as needed for the Chargers stack to go off, the Cowboys will have to throw often. If you don’t like Dez Bryant being shadowed by Casey Hayward or old man Jason Witten, you could use Rod Smith who has 5+ catches in his range of outcomes. The same can be said for Theo Riddick, although at higher ownership. If you run a Case Keenum stack with Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs, and/or Kyle Rudolph, you can fade Golden Tate and Marvin Jones for Riddick.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Redskins Weapons
The Best spot to pair Kirk Cousins with is at tight end against the Giants who have given up by far the most fantasy points to the position at 19.2 per game. If Jordan Reed is unable to go again, Vernon Davis will be a top play on the slate. With Evan Engram, Kyle Rudolph, and other good tight end plays this week, playing 2 tight ends is a great lineup construction strategy for tournaments. Jamison Crowder has seen 32 targets the past 3 games, and should continue to see a high volume of short passes. He has a less than ideal matchup in the slot with Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and an elevated price of $5,400 on Draftkings. Crowder is in play, but not someone I will prioritize. I am more interested in is teammate, Josh Doctson. Now that Terrelle Pryor is done for the season, Doctson is the clear #1 receiver in this offense. He may be shadowed by Janoris Jenkins (who’s been a shell of his 2016 self), which should scare people off. At $4,700 and having seen 19 targets the past 3 games, Doctson is one of my favorite tournament receivers who can break the slate with one big play.
Vikings Weapons
Adam Thielen has seen 9+ targets each of the past 5 games, having under 18.7 fantasy points in just one of those games. He is sure to be popular on this slate, but he is also the best receiver play on the board. Of course, in tournaments you can fade any receiver as it’s an extremely volatile position. Interestingly, Darius Slay did not shadow Stefon Diggs in their Week 4 matchup. I think this makes for a great pivot in tournaments to play Diggs over Thielen if the Lions use the same game plan of not shadowing. Also, that came after Diggs went for a 8-173-2 receiving line in Week 3. This tells me that if Shay didn’t shadow him then, he probably won’t now (feel free to tweet mean things to me if I’m wrong). The Lions rank 29th in DVOA covering tight ends, so this is just another great tight end play in Kyle Rudolph. Rudolph has seen consistent volume with targets of 7, 7, 7, 7, 9, and 9 over the past 6 games played. I advise not making a DFS lineup without exposure to at least one of the Vikings’ weapons
This is a case of digging a little deeper than the general public on a short slate. I want nothing to do with Dez Bryant being shadowed by Casey Hayward, but most who fade him will pivot to Tate, Diggs, or someone in a similar price range in another game entirely. However, if we think the Chargers are going to lock down Dez, someone else has to benefit on the offense…right? I for one don’t expect the Cowboys to just flat out get shut out, although the way they’ve been playing I wouldn’t be surprised. I am a big fan of Bryce Butler, but he’s just not playing enough. Terrance Williams could be in for a slight uptick in targets, making him a viable play at just $3,700 even in a less than ideal matchup.
Xavier Rhodes is banged up, but fully expected to play on Thursday. According to Pro Football Focus, Rhodes shadowed Marvin Jones on 88.9% of his routes in Week 4, and we should expect more of the same in this one. This should funnel targets inside, making Golden Tate a great PPR play on Draftkings. However, Tate hasn’t reached double digit targets in his past 7 games and has only reached that mark in 2 games this season (compared to 7 in 2016). Tate still has an elite 78% catch rate, so double digit targets aren’t needed for a big game.
Keenan Allen
Keenan Allen is coming off a monster 43 fantasy point performance against Buffalo, and the box score chasers are sure to make him one of the most popular plays on the slate. Dallas’ 21st ranked pass defense is exploitable with Orlando Scandrick in the slot. Allen’s 12 target game last week was his first over 5 targets since Week 2; he is still a very volatile play on a week-to-week basis, so I’m fine being underweight if he’s going to be popular even in a good matchup.
If Sterling Shepard is out, I will be firing up all the Evan Engram again. I was burned big time last week, but I’m going to completely throw out that wind game as a fluke and hope recency bias keeps people off Engram. The negative game script of being 7.5-point road underdogs should keep the Giants throwing, and the Redskins boundary corners should have no problem keeping Roger Lewis and Tavarres King in check (although I don’t hate King as a cheap punt play). The Redskins rank 26th in DVOA covering the tight end and have given up the 4th most points to the position.
Hunter Henry
Hunter Henry is one of my favorite tight ends on the slate. He gets a matchup with the 23rd ranked team by DVOA covering tight ends that si without all-world linebacker Sean Lee. Antonio Gates is being phased out of the offense, having seen fewer than 3 targets in 5 straight games. Henry’s usage has been sporadic, but I believe in the talent and refuse to miss out on the monster game that is coming sooner or later.
This slate is filled with great tight end plays, but Eric Ebron is in play for tournaments where he will go overlooked. Ebron saw 7 targets last week against a similar defense that has good boundary coverage and forces the ball to the middle of the field. I know Ebron is probably terrible at football, but he can get 5 for 50 and a touchdown.
Defense Rankings
Chargers
Redskins
Vikings
Lions
Cowboys
Giants
Good luck, y’all!
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