It’s only week 4 and we are already seeing a plethora of injuries across the league. It’s more important now than ever to stay ahead of your league mates and not let a few injuries derail your entire season. I’m here to help make sure this doesn’t happen by looking ahead and giving some things to look for, as well as some buy-low and waiver recommendations, and other tips to stay ahead of your competition.
1. Baker Mayfield is bad for DJ Moore and Christian McCaffrey
Throughout DJ Moore’s career, he has been known as a guy who has trouble consistently finding the endzone, as he has never scored more than four times in a season. Despite the touchdown concerns, Moore was always one of the more consistent receivers when it comes to getting targets, receptions, and yards. From 2019-2021, he never had less than 1,150 yards in a season. Once Baker Mayfield signed, most people thought he would help “unlock” Moore and help lead him to his best season as an NFL wide receiver. However, things are not looking so good for the Moore/Mayfield connection. The Panthers are 2nd to last in passing yards (550) and Baker has only 3 touchdowns with a measly 51.8% completion percentage.
In 2021, Moore never saw less than 7 targets in a game. This is important because he has yet to see more than 6 with Baker Mayfield under center. The other key offensive player for the Panthers is Christian McCaffrey. One would think that if the Panthers aren’t funneling the offense through Moore, that they would at least make sure their star running back was heavily involved. This is also not the case through three games. McCaffrey has yet to surpass 4 catches and 26 yards in a game this season. This is alarming because McCaffrey has shown to be the best safety valve as far as being able to dump the ball off to him, and him make something out of nothing.
With Sam Darnold set to return soon, there is a quarterback controversy on the horizon in Charlotte if Baker doesn’t start getting the ball to his best players.
Embed from Getty Images2. The Jaguars are the team to beat in the AFC South
There’s a different vibe in Duval County when the Jaguars take the field in 2022. After dropping their game to the Commanders in week 1, the Jags answered by not only beating two good teams in the Colts and Chargers, but absolutely dominating them without letting the score ever get close. They shut out the Colts 24-0, and trounced the Chargers 38-10. With the recent success and outstanding turnaround from the mess of a coach that was Urban Meyer, Doug Pederson is one of the favorites for coach of the year early on in the season.
The success starts with second-year quarterback Trevor Lawrence. Lawrence is showing a tremendous bounceback season and proving why he was one of the most polished quarterback prospects in recent years. Through the first three games, Lawrence has 772 yards, 6 touchdowns, and only 1 interception. His 103.1 QB rate is 6th in the league, and he is showing poise and maturity by not making silly turnovers and keeping his team in good spots. Lawrence wouldn’t have this type of success without the signing of Christian Kirk. Kirk ranks 8th in the league in receiving yards (267) and is tied for 2nd in touchdowns (3).
It’s also been a massive boost having running backs James Robinson and Travis Etienne healthy and producing. James Robinson has been one of the more surprising players in 2022. It was uncertain just how healthy he would be coming off a foot injury, but he has silenced all doubters early on. He is tied for 2nd in touchdowns (3) and is tied for 1st in 20+ yard carries, showing he still has the burst and speed to make big plays. Etienne is still finding his footing, but has shown signs of explosion and elusiveness in his early career.
I would be remiss if I didn’t briefly mention the Jag’s defense which starts up front. They have been stingy against the run, ranking 1st in yards allowed (165) with a healthy 3.1 yards per carry allowed, and have yet to allow a rushing touchdown. The secondary has also shown to have a nose for the ball, as they are tied for 1st in interceptions.
3. Lamar Jackson is the early MVP favorite
Entering into a contract year, everyone was expecting Lamar Jackson to go all out to prove he should be the highest-paid quarterback in the league. He is certainly not disappointing and is setting himself up for a massive contract. He is already the leader in total fantasy points and is showing no signs of slowing down.
Jackson has been extremely efficient as a passer thus far. He has only made 88 attempts, but has already piled up 749 yards, 10 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. His 119 rating is first in the entire league and ranks 3rd in yards per attempt (8.2). Not only is he one of the best passers in the league, but he also ranks 5th among all players in rushing yards (243) and average 9.3 yards per carry and has 2 rushing touchdowns.
If you took away all of Jackson’s rushing numbers, he would still be the QB5 overall. If you were to take away all of his passing stats, he would be the QB11 overall, per Dave Kluge on Twitter. This is a truly historic season in the making, and will only get better once JK Dobbins returns and is fully healthy.
4. Romeo Doubs has cemented himself as the top target for the Packers
Through the entire offseason and preseason, figuring out who would be the go-to guy for Aaron Rodgers was one of the more polarizing and perplexing discussions. Most people thought it would be Allen Lazard, some thought it would be one of the veterans in Randall Cobb and Sammy Watkins, and others thought one of the rookie receivers, Christian Watson or Romeo Doubs, would be the guy. It only took 3 weeks to possibly get an answer.
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In week 3, Doubs was 2nd to Lazard in snaps by 1 (55-54) but received the most targets on the team with 8. He went on to catch all 8 targets while piling up 73 yards and adding a touchdown. Doubs’ 8 targets are the most any receiver has gained early in the year for the Packers and is a promising sign moving forward that maybe there is some trust between he and Aaron Rodgers.
He is probably not available in dynasty leagues, but if Romero Doubs is on the waiver wire in your league, go pick him up. Rodgers has a history of finding a guy he trusts and peppering him with targets. Go ahead and grab him now before everyone else catches on.
Embed from Getty Images5. Saquon Barkley is THE RB1 for fantasy
Saquon Barkley is BACK and finally healthy. It only took 3 weeks for him to cement himself as one of the better steals on draft day as well as the best running back in the sport when healthy. He is already 2nd in rushing yards behind Nick Chubb with 317 yards and has already tied his touchdown total from 2021 with 2 touchdowns. This is all the more impressive since the Giants’ offensive line is ranked last by PFF through the first 3 weeks of the season. He has shown signs of burst and elusiveness and hasn’t lost his ability to take any handoff to the house.
With the running back landscape looking a bit bleak so far, Barkley’s ascendance has been a welcome sight by those who took a shot on him. Through 3 games, he has been a top-5 fantasy running back in 2 of the 3 games. He is by far the Giants’ best player and should receive plenty of work moving forward if they wish to succeed. Barkley is the only player on the Giants offense worth rostering at this point.
Embed from Getty Images6. The Philadelphia Eagles are the favorite to win the Super Bowl
I knew the Eagles would be one of the better teams in the NFC, but I didn’t think they would be as good as they are on both sides of the ball. A year ago, the Eagles were just a run-heavy team who didn’t possess the ability to really push the ball down the field. This year is a totally different team. The signing of AJ Brown, one of the best receivers in the NFL, and the massive leaps Jalen Hurts has taken in the passing game has opened up a whole other level we have yet to see in Philly. They are 4th in total passing yards and have showed the ability to push the ball down the field with their 9.1 yards per attempt, which ranks 1st in the league.
They have accomplished this without giving up their identity as a team that can overpower you in the run game with their stellar offensive line. Their 451 rushing yards ranks 6th in the league and their 6 touchdowns ranks 1st. They are able to do this with their deep depth at running back with backs Miles Sanders, Kenneth Gainwell, and Boston Scott all contributing. It also helps that they have one of the best rushing quarterbacks in the league in Jalen Hurts.
The Eagles aren’t just impressive on the offensive side. They have cemented themselves as one of the more balanced teams in the entire NFL, which goes a long ways in making a late playoff run. The secondary led by Darius Slay has been stellar. They rank 1st in yards per pass attempt with 4.4, they rank 3rd in interceptions with 4, and are 6th in total passing yards allowed. One of the big reasons for the success in the secondary is the ability to get after the quarterback quickly. Through 3 games, the Eagles have sacked the quarterback 12 times, which ranks 2nd in the NFL. I don’t think our infrastructure is prepared for a potential Eagles – Bills superbowl.
7. Cooper Rush looks to remain undefeated as a starter
Cooper Rush is 3-0 as an NFL starting quarterback. The only other Cowboys undrafted free agent to do this is Jason Garrett. Rush isn’t a flashy player and nothing necessarily jumps off the screen when you watch him play. However, he does everything he is supposed to do, makes accurate throws, and shows great decision-making ability which a lot of backups lack. The Cowboys trust him to run their offense and haven’t seemed to miss a beat since losing Dak to injury.
In weeks 2 and 3, Rush attempted 31 passes in each game with a completion percent over 60% in both games. His rating of 91.8 in that span is better than Tom Brady, Joe Burrow, Russell Wilson, and Derek Carr. Many were worried what losing Dak would mean for CeeDee Lamb, but after two weeks CeeDee Lamb owners can rest easy. In both of Rush’s starts, Lamb has seen 11+ targets and has surpassed 75 yards in both games. Lamb even dropped a wide-open touchdown in week 3, which would have bolstered his stats even more. I think Dak will definitely return as the starter when he returns, but Rush might be playing himself into a future starting job.
Embed from Getty Images8. The Colts and Matt Ryan are still a potential playoff team
While it wasn’t ideal for the Colts to start 0-1-1, beating the Chiefs in week 3 was huge for the Colts’ confidence and playoff hopes. After tying the Texans and getting shut out by the Jaguars, the Colts showed their true potential by rebounding and beating the Chiefs in a hard-fought week 3 matchup. They couldn’t have done it without a stout defense and veteran quarterback Matt Ryan.
In his first win as a Colt, Matt Ryan was 27 of 37 passing with 2 touchdowns, no interceptions, and a rating of 105.9. He was able to put up these numbers while being sacked 5 times and being hit 10 times. This game was also the 43rd comeback win for Matty Ice which is good for 6th all time. There was a learning curve expected to start the year with a new quarterback, but I think it’s a great sign that they were able to win a close game against a top-5 team in the NFL this early in the season.
The Colts’ defense also needs recognition, even though they are not even close to full strength. They have played hard-nosed defense while missing stars to injuries such as Shaquille Leonard, Deforest Buckner, Yannik Ngakoue, and Stephon Gilmore. The strength of the defense is the ability to stop the run, as they rank 3rd in rushing yards allowed and 1st in yards per carry. Things are only looking up for the Colts. They will continue to improve on offense as the players on defense with injuries get healed. Better days are ahead in Indy.
9. Pick up handcuff RBs
The injuries are starting to pile up for starting running backs. Elijah Mitchell injured his knee week 1, Joe Mixon missed a portion of the 2nd half in week 3, David Montgomery left with an injury, and Christian McCaffrey is on the injury report and his status for week 4 is in question. If you have an extra roster spot, it can be extremely advantageous to try and stay ahead of injuries, whether you’re handcuffing your own running backs, or other backs on a different team. It’s also one of the better ways to save FAAB money.
Some of the bigger names names to grab on the waiver wire are Samaje Perine, Alexander Mattison, Jamaal Williams, Khalil Herbert, and D’onta Foreman. My favorites in this group, and probably the ones harder to find on the wire, are Khalil Herbert and Jamaal Williams since they have value outside of just being a handcuff.
If you’re not able to grab one of the guys listed above and have an extra roster spot, look for lesser-known handcuffs until that roster spot is needed. Some of my favorite stashes are Brian Robinson Jr., Tyler Allgeier, D’Ernest Johnson, Mark Ingram, Jaylen Warren, and Zamir White.
Embed from Getty Images10. Buy-low on Breece Hall and Joe Mixon
Two of my favorite buy-low candidates going into week 4 are Breece Hall and Joe Mixon. On Twitter, I’ve seen people getting frustrated by both of these backs, and their stocks have fallen quite a bit over the first few weeks of the season. There are plenty of positive signs for both players moving forward and this is the perfect opportunity to grab them before they break out.
The case for Breece Hall is simple. He is the best running back on the Jets by a decent margin. They seemed to have eased him into action, but over three weeks, Hall has been better than teammate Michael Carter in both rushing and receiving production. Hall already has more fantasy points than Carter, while Carter has out-snapped Hall 124-92. Hall is sporting a healthy 5.3 yards per carry compared to 4.4 for Carter, which is still respectable. Hall has already proven to be the better pass catcher as well with 22 targets and 7.8 yards per reception and a touchdown.
Given the draft capital used on Hall, and the fact that he is improving every game, it is inevitable that he officially surpasses Carter as the lead back. Until that happens, try and trade for Hall before the market catches up.
Coming into the year, Joe Mixon was one of the safer floor plays as far as running backs go. Since 2018, he has finished 11th, 18th, 10th, and 6th in fantasy points per game. While the production hasn’t been there early in the year, Joe Mixon ranks 1st in expected fantasy points. One of the main reasons for lack of production is the fact that the Bengals have 4 new offensive lineman this year. The offense as a whole has taken a step back because of the play of the line, so it’s reasonable to think it’s effecting Mixon as well.
That being said, the Bengals are still an elite offense and Mixon has no competition when he’s healthy to his playing time. The offensive line will learn how to play and communicate with each other, and when they do this offense will thrive and Joe Mixon will be the go-to guy when it comes to work as a running back. He is solid in his receiving ability and will get almost every carry in the redzone. Check on owners who have Mixon and see if you can trade for him at his discounted price.
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