The first two weeks of the season have been just as entertaining as it has been unpredictable. It is easy to overreact when you’re 0-2 out of the gate, but I’m here to help shed some light on things to look forward to, to try and stay ahead of the curve and gain an advantage against your league-mates. Let’s take a look at 10 things to know about Week 3.
1. Garrett Wilson might be the #1 target for Joe Flacco
The Jets spent a lot of draft capital on Garrett Wilson, drafting him 10th overall in the 2022 NFL Draft. He came into his rookie season as a consensus top-5 rookie WR for most people, but I’m not sure too many experts and analysts expected him to start dominating targets from day one, especially with the emergence of Elijah Moore as well as Zach Wilson getting injured in the preseason.
Through two games, Wilson has a 21.8% target share on 22 targets and a 45.8% target per route run. The 45.8% TPRR ranks just behind target hogs Cooper Kupp and Diontae Johnson, and ahead of Mark Andrews, CeeDee Lamb, Christian Kirk, and DJ Moore.
If this usage continues, Garrett Wilson is a safe WR2 moving forward and will continue to be one of the better rookie WRs in a very talented WR class. He is easily the #1 waiver wire add if he is available in your league going into Week 3.
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2. Cole Kmet and Darnell Mooney are almost droppable at this point
Nobody expected the Bears offense to be very good this year with the lack of weapons for Justin Fields to throw to and a lackluster offensive line. There were, however, two players who were considered good targets to draft even if the offense wasn’t necessarily good. Those players were Cole Kmet and Darnell Mooney. However, nobody expected the Bears to be dead last (by a large margin) in offensive snaps and pass attempts.
Through two games, the Bears have only had 97 offensive snaps and have attempted only 28 pass attempts, which is much less than the next lowest team who has 52. Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet are the main ones bearing the brunt of the low pass attempts when it comes to fantasy. In 2021, Mooney enjoyed a 26.6% target share and was a focal point of the offense. So far in 2022 he has only seen 5 targets and was only able to bring in 2 of them for catches for a meager 4 yards. Kmet has been even worst as he hasn’t even logged a catch yet on the season.
If you’re in a 10-team league or have shallow benches and have some stars hurt, you can safely drop Kmet and Mooney until the Bears show signs of life on offense.
3. The Broncos’ offense might be worst than anyone expected
While on the surface the Broncos’ 1-1 record looks decent, there is potential trouble brewing in Denver. New head coach Nathaniel Hackett is already under fire for overall game management and lack of points given the immensely talented roster. Week 1, the Broncos lost 17-16 to the Geno Smith-led Seahawks, and scraped by the Texans in week 2, 16-9. Both of these games should be easy wins for a much more talented Broncos team.
Part of the reason for concern is the lack of touchdowns. While Wilson’s 559 yards is solid through two games, he has only thrown for 2 touchdowns while throwing an interception. Russ also looks like he has lost his mobility and has not been able to handle pressure from the defense, ranking 27th in QB rate under pressure. The Broncos have also not been able to establish their dominant run game which was one of their strengths last season.
The highly touted backfield committee of Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon have yet to score a touchdown on the ground against seemingly solid matchups. The lone bright spot on the offense is WR Courtland Sutton, who is feasting on a 26.1% target share and has racked up 194 yards. It is still very early in the year and there is plenty of time to right the ship, but the tough matchup against the 49ers in Week 3 might make it a bit tougher.
Embed from Getty Images4. Kyle Pitts’ early season woes make him a perfect buy-low
One of the more disappointing players in fantasy in the early weeks is the Falcons’ second-year Pro Bowl TE Kyle Pitts. The Falcons have been surprisingly competitive in their first two games, and all of that is without having Pitts as a focal point of the offense. Although he is leading the team in offensive snaps, Pitts has only 4 receptions for 38 yards on 10 targets.
Arthur Smith is certainly not helping the situation for Pitts. When asked a legitimate question about not getting the best player on his offense the ball more, Arthur Smith responded with an asinine comment responding: “It’s not fantasy football. We’re just trying to win games.”
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Most offenses thrive by getting their best players involved in different ways depending on matchups. I do believe Smith and the Falcons will pick up on this and will try and gameplan for Pitts to be more involved. This is a perfect buy-low opportunity if a Pitts manager is 1-1 or 0-2 and hitting the panic button already.
Although he has been disappointing, there are positive signs under the hood. Pitts has a 14.2 ADOT (average depth of target) as well as 156 air yards. All these signs point towards Pitts turning it around, so go make offers in your leagues and benefit from a top-5 TE.
Embed from Getty Images5. The Bengals’ offensive line is STILL bad
Throughout the offseason, the Bengals made a clear point to try and bolster their offensive line to protect their star QB, Joe Burrow. Two notable signings were C Ted Karrass and RT La’el Collins. However, things are certainly not going as planned through two weeks, as Burrow has been sacked 13 times through the team’s first two games. This number is alarming because it is the first time in 20 years that a team has allowed 13 sacks in the first two games, according to ESPN Stats and Information.
Not every sack is due to the offensive line. Burrow took partial blame for the sacks in Week 1, but a lot of it is due to a lack of communication along the front.
This is to be expected from an offensive line that has 4 of 5 new starters from the year before, but they still have got to be better than they have been in order for the Bengals to operate at peak efficiency on the offensive side of the ball. They are too talented of a unit to be this bad, so I do think they will get things figured out. It is only two games into a long season.
6. Buy low on Chris Olave while you can
Coming into the season, Chris Olave was my WR1 amongst rookie wide receivers for redraft leagues. He was the most polished route runner and most NFL-ready Week 1. While the overall production is slightly lacking compared to the early success of fellow rookies Drake London, Garrett Wilson, and Jahan Dotson, there are a lot of good signs which point directly to a breakout from the rookie WR. To start, Jameis Winston has to be more consistent and overall better.
Olave has already cemented himself as Winston’s favorite target after Week 2, receiving 13 targets which he converted to 80 yards.
Olave is tied for the team lead in routes ran with Michael Thomas (70) and is the team leader in ADOT (23.9 yards). Olave also leads the entire NFL in total air yards with 399 yards. These are all great signs that show he is going to be a focal point for Winston and the Saints’ offense, and this is the perfect opportunity to get him at a decent price if you missed out on him in your drafts. It’s always best to try and stay ahead of the curve in fantasy football.
Embed from Getty Images7. Amon-Ra St. Brown is a WR1 moving forward
As the season approached and draft season was in full swing, Amon-Ra St. Brown was one of the more polarizing players being discussed. There were those who thought he was only able to produce as a top-tier WR because of injuries to D’Andre Swift and TJ Hockenson, and there are those who believed he would still be a major part of the offense regardless of who else plays alongside him. How did he respond?
Already two weeks into the 2022 season, St. Brown has already set an NFL record. He became the first player in NFL history to get 8 receptions and a touchdown in 6 straight games and has at least 8 receptions in his last 8 games. Those aren’t just empty receptions either, as he is tied for 2nd in touchdowns with 3. At the ripe age of 22, St. Brown is already carving himself out as one of the most consistent wideouts in the entire league and has already become a top-12 WR moving forward. He is the epitome of a set-it-and-forget-it fantasy star.
8. Aaron Jones is still the back to own in Green Bay
The Packers are one of the hardest teams to figure out for fantasy purposes. There is a lot of uncertainty in the WR room as to who will be Aaron Rodgers’ go-to guy. The only sure thing in the offense is that RBs Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon will be heavily involved in both the run and pass game.
Both backs were going in the top-24 RBs according to FantasyPros ADP, and are not letting people down when it comes to usage. Aaron Jones, however, is showing why he is still one of the better backs in the NFL and proving there are still some things to work on with AJ Dillon. While Dillon has 8 more carries than Jones, Jones has outrushed Dillon 181-106 and his 9.1 yards per carry is 2nd in the NFL behind D’Andre Swift.
They both have only 6 receptions, but Jones has more yards and found the endzone, while Dillon has not. Aaron Jones also is better than Dillon at making people miss and breaking tackles. Jones has 5 forced missed tackles and has broken 7 tackles, while AJ Dillon has no forced missed tackles and 4 broken tackles. While both RBs will be very useful moving forward, Aaron Jones is already showing why he is a perennial top RB in the league and the most trusted person on the Packers offense.
Embed from Getty Images9. Jalen Hurts is a top-5 QB with QB1 overall upside
Jalen Hurts was one of my favorite QBs coming into 2022 and my most rostered QB across the board. After his first full season as a starter in 2021, Hurts showed the immense upside finishing 6th in fantasy points per game, according to FantasyPros. He was one of the best rushing QBs and showed a nose for the endzone. However, there were a few parts of his game that needed improvement, mainly his pocket presence and overall passing ability.
Through the first two games, he is silencing the critics who said he was outright bad as a passer. He ranks as the 1st QB overall in PFF passing grade and 2nd in overall offensive grade, just behind Josh Allen. He is 1st in yards per pass attempt (9.1) and is top-10 in passing yards (576). This is all the more impressive given the fact that the Eagles are still a run-heavy team. Hurts has also shown maturity early in the season.
He has shown that he can protect the ball and make smart decisions and throws, which is showcased by his 1 turnover which the RB dropped on a screen pass, falling right into the defense’s hands. With this vast improvement, paired with Hurts’ ability to find the endzone (3 rushing TDs in 2 games) he is truly a top-5 QB in the league, with the potential to challenge Allen and Mahomes as the top QB overall.
10. Tua and the Dolphins’ offense have already exceeded expectations
The Dolphins went out of their way in the offseason to give rookie head coach Mike McDaniel plenty of weapons to work with, and so far the Tua-led Dolphins have not disappointed. They currently rank 1st overall in passing yards (703), 2nd in total yards (854), and tied for 3rd in points per game (31). QB Tua Tagovailoa is also silencing critics who said he would not be able to get the ball downfield to speedy receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
Tua is 1st overall in passes over 40 yards and is 4th in passer rating. Some of that credit does go to Hill and Waddle, who can both take a short slant or screen and turn it into massive gains. Hill is 1st in receiving yards (284), while Waddle is 3rd in the entire NFL (240).
Tua was also able to get TE Mike Gesicki more involved in Week 2, which is huge to keep defenses from focusing only on Hill and Waddle. The one thing the Dolphins need to do is try and get Chase Edmonds more involved in the passing game. It is only two games, and there is still plenty of time for McDaniel to figure out creative ways to get Edmonds involved. When or if this happens, watch out.
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