The DFS Round Table : How To Attack A Short Slate on FanDuel/ Draftkings.

The DFS Round Table : How To Attack A Short Slate on FanDuel/ Draftkings.
12/30/2015

No don’t do it!

Don’t play short slates!

It’s gambling!

Fade it!

I’m sure you’ve all heard the above phrases when people either asked or you’ve asked, “Should I play 2-5 game slate tonight?” I know I have. I play every slate though. I haven’t met a slate that has feared me, unless it’s the Jazz vs 76er’s or Miami vs San Antonio. These are the 4 teams I would fear of playing.Which by the way are some of the worst team to target.

As I finish up a 5 game slate. I want to discuss the good and bad .

Sometime  people don’t know how to  go about it. How should I attack it? Why does everyone fear it? Who should I play with such limited player? Should I load up on superstars or scrubs? With so many outcomes in such a small slate, it can cause a head ache the size of volcanic eruption!

I’ll take you through 3 steps I do for short slate games.

Step 1 – Look at my Pace/Vegas Factor

You’re asking, “where do I get this?” We will soon have this information available for you VIA – NBA Spreadsheet on the website. Possibly next week or these upcoming days.

Here’s what it looks like:

We have the pace of the game as well the Vegas stuff. As well as which is the best game to target on a nightly basis. Yesterday was the ATL-HOU game at the top .

Let’s break down the ATL-HOU game:

Atlanta away pace – 78
Houston home pace – 84

Game Pace +/- rating 0.7 – Green on the spreadsheet.

Vegas Spread- Hou 2.5
Vegas O/U 209
Vegas +/- Rating on the spreadsheet 3.9

Almost 2 times better then any other game on the whole slate. Overall Game Rating was 2.4.

If you quickly look at all the higher scoring players, most of them came from this game.

PG
Jeff Teague – 41.4 points
Ty Lawson – 23.2 – Really bizarre in my opinion.

SG
James Harden 45 points
Kent Bazemore 35.6 points

SF

I didn’t have any SF I liked from this game .

PF

Paul Millsap – 52.6 points (Top Play for me)

Clint Capela – 36.0 points

C

Dwight Howard – 54.7 points
Al Horford – 53.8 points

Both were not very owned.

Second game that was great to target was the Milwaukee Bucks Vs Oklahoma City Thunder:

Milwaukee away pace – 57
OKC Home pace – 86

Game Pace +/- rating -1.7 – light red on the spreadsheet.

Vegas Spread- Thunder -13.5
Vegas O/U 204
Vegas +/- Rating on the spreadsheet -1.1

PG

Russell Westbrook – 52.9 points
Michael Carter-William – 45.3 points

SG

No real SG attracted me on this slate from OKC.
Giannis Antetokounmpo – 39 points

SF

Kevin Durant – 45.2 points
Khris Middleton -46.5 points

PF

Serge Ibaka – 23.3
No real PF attracted me on this slate for MIL.

C

Greg Monroe – 17.5
Enes Kanter – 37.1

Both had some great options to target. Some even had surprising ones. I was really surprised by Middleton’s game tonight. Especially with a hard match-up vs Durant. Although, some of the better match-ups came through .

Which leads me to step 2.

Step 2 – Identify the Defense vs Position match up advantage. Russell Westbrook vs MIL
Jeff Teague vs HOU
James Harden vs ATL
Kent Bazemore vs HOU
Kevin Durant vs MIL
Paul Millsap vs HOU
Serge Ibaka vs MIL
Dwight Howard vs ATL
Enes Kanter vs MIL
Al Horford vs HOU

All of them in the breakdown research we have in the spreadsheet. As I research these players I also look at the possible projected points they can get.  I break it down to a narrow list.

Step 3- Value Plays

Value plays are probably the most critical ones on a short slate. Sometimes you can find a lot of value in short slates. Sometimes you can’t find any. I look at value to open up mostly an hour before lock time. Most breaking news are updated by the time being. Roster adjustments are usually done by coaches. On a short slate you don’t have to go for the cheapest value. You want to go for the value play that will pay off in salary.

Today Top Value –

Bargain Value –

Robin Lopez – 8.8 x value 3800
Clint Capela – 7.3 x value 4900
Enes Kanter – 7.4 x value 5000
Kent Bazemore- 6.6 x value 5400
Joffrey Lauvergne – 6.4 x value 3900
Tristan Thompson– 4.7 x value 4600

I didn’t have Capela or Robin Lopez on my list of value plays. These guys went off. As you can tell it has limited options unlike  a large slate where you have many more. Sometimes value doesn’t come in bargain price. Sometimes in a short slate you can take what I like to call, “High Price Value”. You have to do your research for this. You have to narrow down a list of players  you think will exceed their value beyond 5x for GPP or 4x their value for cash games.

High Price Value –

Al Horford 6900 – 7.8 x value – What made me pick him? I loved his price. He was 6900. Facing the Rocket who lack of defense in the paint . Dwight howard isn’t the elite defensive player we once feared.

Dwight Howard 7200 – 7.6 x value – What made me pick him? The match up. Horford has been extremely weak vs centers this year, allowing the 22nd worst defense vs centers. I knew Howard was going to be under owned due to his recent inconsistency .

Kent Bazemore- 6.6 x value 5400- Okay he on both lists. 5400 on a short slate isn’t exactly a bargain, it’s midline. Start all centers vs the Lakers. Start all Shooting guards vs James harden. The guy is awful at defending the SG position.

Jeff Teague 6100 – 6.8 x value – I had my eyes on Teague for this match up based solely on the fact he was facing the rockets. They’ve been a mess at PG. Beverley isn’t the defender he once was. The fact they rotate in Ty Lawson helps out a lot. At 6100 I was expecting him to get 6x his value. High Pace/ High O/U is gold for PG’s. They have the highest usage on the court at times.

So like I said, you don’t have to get bargain value players. There’s mid-tier value you can focus on. You just have to identify them.

These are my Top 3 steps of how I construct a roster on a short slate for GPP.

Cash Game Strategy

Well, it’s very simple for cash games. I don’t play short slate cash games, It’s too volatile. If one player goes off that’s hidden and you don’t own him, you will automatically lose. Short slates are not ideal cash games. I usually only play cash games on a 6-13 game slate. Don’t risk cash games on short slates. I’m telling you it’s very difficult to cash.

That is all for today’s write up.

If you have any comments or questions please ask away. I’ll reply as soon as I can.

For a better way to look at my daily best match-up plays, value picks, Vegas over and under,  add my Facebook group page.  I have the Spreadsheet pinned on the group page. I Strongly suggest joining the winning team, as we have had members improve their skills dramatically in days of joining the group.

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The DFS Round Table

Editor: Court LeRoy

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