The DFS Round Table – Fanduel Top Value and Plays
01-05-2016

Welcome to the Round table, we’re going to do a breakdown of all the top plays today. We will look for the best value and the best plays. As well top match up. I will do three breakdowns. A value play, a Top Play with the match, underrated player to exceed value least 6 times his price. Well let’s not waste any time and jump right into it.

Point Guards-

Top Match Up / Top Play-

Stephen Curry $10,700 vs. LAL – As we all know too well. Target the Lakers with PG and C. Stephen Curry is coming back from injury but performed and played yesterday. I have full confident he will take advantage of this match up. Although I expect this game to be a blow out. He should meet cash game value. I don’t believe he will meet G.P.P value.  My highest rated DVP match up of the day.

Top Value Play- 

Juan Jose Barea AKA J.J Barea $4,600- He facing Sacramento Kings. While I believe Barea is a small underrated player. He gets it done. He has played a lot of minutes in his timeshare duties. Although Deron William is back. He still producing, as he met value in cash game 7-10 time in the last ten games.  Sacramento a top 5 pace factor as I have in my spreadsheet, which will launch tomorrow. As well we have a great Vegas total and spread on it. 212 O/U and -5 spread for Sac. I’m more focus on the O/U and pace.  I expect Berea to exceed his value.  He should start. If he doesn’t he will come off the bench.

Underrated player to exceed value – 

Michael Carter-Williams $6,700- Yes, I know. He’s a horrible shooter. Good thing he not just a shooter. He basically a poor version of Jason Kidd. What do you know the coach is Jason Kidd? The guy has been on fire lately. Exceeding everyone expectation. He has exceeded g.p.p value 10-13 games.  In his last 10 games he started 9 and has gotten 6 x times his value 6 times. I expect him to feast on Aaron Brooks if Derek Rose sits out.

Shooting Guards –

Top Match Up / Top Play vs. Milwaukee Bucks –

Jimmy Butler $8,300- He just dropped it like it hot. He scored 42 points vs. Toronto Raptors just in his last game. He has a great match up tonight. I wanted to go Kobe Bryant but I’ve decided it wasn’t safe since he rest more than a retirement home.  Jimmy Butler will likely be guarded by either Gianni’s Or Kris Middleton. I don’t think either one is strong enough to stop Jimmy butler from driving and creating space. While Giannis is long, he really struggles vs. bigger and stronger players like Butler.

Top Value Play –

Louis Williams $5,700- Kobe Bryant has been sitting a lot of games lately. With that it opens up minute and usage rate to Williams. He has been getting buckets in a bunch. Scoring 46, 34, 29 FanDuel points in the last 3 games. I expect Kobe to comeback. Even with him back I expect William to get the garbage time minutes. At his price he needs 25 point to meet g.p.p value. I can see him excelling this price. As The Laker will need a lot of points to score.  The game is the second best game on the slate with Pace Factor.

Underrated player to exceed value –

Kobe Bryant $6,900- This was tough one to decide on. I wanted to go Kent Bazemore. This is more a gut call. Kobe been resting lately.  I expect Kobe to be fresh for this game vs. GSW. At the Oracle Arena where I expect a lot of Laker fan to support him for his farewells visit. Kobe will go Black Mamba retro mode. As the GSW isn’t a great defensive team at the SG.  Kobe will be chucking a lot of shot to try to make this game a close one. Once again this isn’t an ideal call but a gut call.  Don’t expect 6 time value but Cash game and g.p.p is possible.

Small Forwards-

Top Match Up / Top Play-

Carmelo Anthony $8,600 – This is an ugly slate for SF so I suggest to study the slate how you want to attack the SF position. I love Carmelo Anthony match up as the Atlanta Hawks are not the team they were last year on the defensive side. No Carroll really hurts them. Anthony has not met value in the two matches up vs. them this year.  Although he has scored 36, 34 points vs. them this year, I’ll take that. On a slate like this. I don’t expect any other SF to exceed his projection.

Top Value Play-

Nikola Mirotic $4,700- Took almost 30 + game but Mirotic is finally doing what he should be doing. Shooting the ball. With no Derrick Rose the usage rate splits. More shot opportunity for Mirotic open up as well. Mirotic has been getting 29+ min the last two games and I can see that continuing to happen.

Underrated player to exceed value –

NONE, there’s not 1 guy I can see reaching that I like to name in this section.

Power Forward- 

Top Match Up-

Draymond Green $9,700 vs. Lakers – I don’t like his price, but I love his match up. His price is creeping up to the point that I’m scared to roster him in blowout games. If this game wasn’t destined to be a blow out I would love green. He does have the best match up of the night at the PF as the Lakers are 23rd vs. PF. Overall the worst defensive team in the league as well.

Top Play-

Paul Millsap $8,700- 1,000 dollar cheaper than green. Last game he played vs. them he played 27 minute. Although it was a blow out. He still met value with 44.8 points on FD. The guy is a great player that always under owned. I don’t know why. I love his game. He gets a little of everything. NYK have no answer to Millsap post and style of play. I expect him to get a 40 pt FD game.

Top Value Play –

Jabari Parker $4,400- Parker is a forgotten man. Once a 2nd overall pick in the 2014 draft. He had a torn ACL last year. He now back and seems to be turning the corner. I would suggest you ride the train as he has played 32 Minutes on average in the last 3 games.  Meeting providing great value in two games of the last two. On a short slate you has to find player that will get good value but with high ceiling to get high points total. Parker could be in a great position to do that. Chicago Bulls rank 25th vs. PF this season as well.

Underrated player to exceed value –

Larry Nance Jr. $4300- He also falls in the value section. I only put him here because I think he will exceed his value. While his match up isn’t ideal. I don’t see the Laker Keeping it close. So I expect Nance to get a lot of minutes. Here are Nance Jr. Last 4 games. I will roll the dice on him and play him.

$4,000 31.8 points 8x Value
$4,000 24.8 points 6.2x Value
$4,000 18.2 points 4.5x Value
$3,500 20.4 points 5.8x Value
$3,500 34.7 points 9.9x Value

Centers-

Top Match Up-

Greg Monroe $7,400 – I ask myself how is it that the bulls interior defense can be so bad. One time the bull front court was a great defensive front court. With Noah hurt and sideline this murders their interior defense. The other person I look at is Fred Hoiberg the head coach of the Chicago Bulls. Monroe hasn’t played the Bulls yet, but I expect him to take advantage of this match up. He too athletic for Gasol and too fundamental for Taj Gibson.
Top Play-

DeMarcus Cousin $9,700 – Cousin is on a back to back game. Although I don’t see this being a problem as he just came off one of his better game of the season. 60 pt game last night vs. OKC. Dominated the front court of OKC. Keep in mind that Zaza Pachulia is a scrappy defender. He a big body that can give Cousin his bang for his bucks.  I love this game Pace and Vegas O/U to fade Cousin as a top C.  I will ride and die with him . His price is under 10,000, I don’t expect that to last.

Underrated player to exceed value / Top Value Play –

Robin Lopez $4,100- He was awful earlier in the year. Right now though as he hitting his stride. So ride him!!!

$4,100/ 37.7 Points / 9.2 X value
$4,100/16.2 Points / 4 X value
$3,800/33.4 Points/ 8.8 X value
$3,800/18.2 Points/ 4.8 X value
$3,800/18.8 Points/ 4.9 X value
$3,800/ 20 Points/ 5.3 X value
$3,600/28.6 Points/ 7.9X value

This is what Lopez has done in the last 7 games . That 37.7 point game was vs. ATL. The team he will face in tonight slate. As I see him exceeding the 6 time value as well.

That is all for today write up.

If you have any comments Or questions please ask away. I’ll reply as soon as I can

For a better way to look at my daily best match up plays, underrated player to exceed value / Top Value Play, Top. As I have a personal spreadsheet I create .Add my Facebook group page. Right below here.

The DFS Round Table NBA Spreadsheet will go Live tomorrow!!!! Be ready to score 300-350 point on a daily basic as many have already done!!

The DFS Round Table

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