This is gross. I don’t want to do it. But I’m going to.
And it sucks.
Before I go any further and release the Kraken, please remember that the articles I will bring to you are based on the Pros and Cons of players the community has split ideas on. This week is no exception.
There is a currently a team who has studs all over their Offense. Yet the guy under Center is currently outside the Top 20 in ADP across multiple reputable sites (Fantasy Football Calculator QB23, My Fantasy Leagues QB30 for example). His history, at times, tells us that is spot on and correct. But the past is the past and what we see moving into the 2018 season, I think the ‘collective’ mindset may need to change or at least adapt.
Before I get into the who’s, what’s and why’s of this week’s focus player let’s look at a team from 2017 who most had the same thoughts about their leading man going into Fantasy Draft season. From there….nevermind the point I am about to prove will be somewhat obvious in a moment.
Alex Smith in Kansas was barely selected in redraft leagues and was ranked as the QB22 heading into the year. In deeper leagues, he was also picked – AT BEST – as a second QB if an Andrew Luck or Carson Wentz was selected as a security blanket. A ‘just-in-case-guy’.
Kareem Hunt as a Rookie was his Running Back after Spencer Ware gets injured, eventually lead the league in Rushing Yards and proved his worth in the passing game – which feels like it gets overlooked at times due to how good fellow Rookie Alvin Kamara performed.
Tyreek Hill was a Top 5 Receiver in Yards and TDs. He is known to be hot and cold at times but was hot enough to stay highly ranked.
Travis Kelce is a superstar Tight End finished the year as the Tight End 2 – something which is becoming more and more frequently for the big man.
A top 5 QB. With a top 5 RB and WR. And the elite of the elite at TE. Funnily, Alex Smith ultimately finished as the QB4 overall on the year, yet despite all the positive play got traded away and now we are lead to believe that a 2nd year QB with 1 game in Pat Mahomes (in week 17 no less against a depleted and demoralised Denver team) is a top 12-15 QB material already who is now under his second OC – remember Matt Nagy has left (I’m sorry Chiefs faithful, that Offense has sailed).
Now I want you to forget the names. Forget Alex Smith and his troops in Kansas with the stellar 2017 season. Forget the wins and losses. This is after all Fantasy Football now. Last year is dead and buried, we need right now to give 2018 a fresh start.
And I want you to do the following:
Replace Tyreek Hill with Odell Beckham Jr.
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Replace Kareem Hunt with Saquon Barkley.
Replace Travis Kelce with Evan Engram.
Not too hard to do right? Ok, I have 1 more for you to do; who is the focus of this weeks article….
Replace Alex Smith with…….Eli Manning.
If the first thing out of your mouth right now was to instinctively say ‘Woof’ then you’d probably feel justified in doing so. And that’s ok. I don’t blame you.
However, minions of the Fantasy Football community, we are looking at the 2018 NY Giants as a team who can and may well overproduce like the 2017 Chiefs did. So before you click away and never read my work again please bear with me, read and reply – conversation makes all this worthwhile!
Do you know –
- Who Marquise Bundy or Darius Powe is? No? Weird. How about Travis Rudolph or Hunter Sharp? You haven’t? How about Travaris King or Roger Lewis? A little warmer? They both have a bit more of a reputation, probably? There we go! Yes right here is a list of NY Giants Receivers who played with Eli Manning last year as Odell Beckham Jr (OBJ moving forward), Brandon Marshall and Dwayne Harris all missed season-ending injuries early in the season.
- That somehow, Manning, while being the focal point of a 3-13 team still finished with 19 TDs and 13 INTs. I know, not that impressive. But that’s only 1 less TD and 1 more INT than 2016 MVP Matt Ryan that (who made the playoffs with Atlanta mind you) was lucky to field a ‘healthy’ team the whole year.
- Manning’s yards and completions were not great (yes @TheBLeagueSays we know already, he is awful!) and yes the Giants as a whole also weren’t great too. But without OBJ he only had 34 fewer completions and 866 fewer yards than Drew Brees and considering OBJ’s averages (1106 yards per 11.75 games with 9.5 TDs a year) that could have launched Manning into being a top 12 Fantasy QB last year with his star Receiver alone. Yikes.
Stop it @TheBLeagueSays! Stop it! You’re talking crazy! Eli Manning is junk! Yeah. Probably. You do make a good points Mr. and Mrs. Online General Consensus, again, I guess….. But I will leave you with 1 bonus ‘Do You Know’ for the week. Do you know:
- That while that noodle arm of Manning’s isn’t getting younger or stronger (this is true, I can concede that), but do you know that he had the same amount completions over 40 yards (5) as Jameis Winston and Cam Newton did? Surely not…..?! Surely indeed!
Cue the crickets…..on with the show!
The Pros and Cons of……..Eli Manning
The Pros –
- Pat Shurmur coached Vikings team in 2017: the Vikings finished with 2 WR’s in the Top 20. They finished with a Top 6 Tight End. Dalvin Cook was on track to be a Top 12 RB. And Jerick McKinnon finished in PPR and Standard Scoring as an RB2. You know what’s somewhat funny? This team was lead by a guy called Case Keenum who finished 2017 with the second-best completion rate (only behind Drew Brees). Which probably means that Pat Shurmur is known for creating a…..
- A simplified game plan: all we heard once Sam Bradford went down was Shurmur and Keenum talking about simplifying the play calling and doing so through improved communication. Making sure that your backup is feeling good, understands what is being asked and executing. Guess what Manning and Shurmur are saying? Eli looks good, the plays are easy to follow and Eli is more than capable of executing them, we understand what we expect out of each other clearly. I love the consistency and I love a formulaic approach. It seems as if 1+2=3 in NY and after the last 2 years out of Ben McAdoo’s roadside sized diner menu/playbook, I would expect them to rinse, wash, and repeat from the Giants when play-calling in 2018.
The Con’s –
- Elite? No, not at all: and he doesn’t need to be. He just needs to play it safe. Safe is good. Safe is needed. In 2012 when the Giants won the Super Bowl Eli Manning finished as the QB 15 on the year in Fantasy Football. Since then, he has gone QB 21, 10 (OBJ Rookie season), 10, 21 and 23. So in 10 Team leagues, at best he is barely a QB1 (if you’re lucky), and at worst (most of the time) he is Waiver Wire and Bye Week fodder. Unusable. So even with all the positives, the fluctuations of his overall performance at best is erratic. To finish as a Super Bowl Winner and still not be a QB1? That isn’t great.
- Is it possible with a more well-rounded team he plays safe: I would 100% expect this to be the case. We saw Pat Shurmur move Adam Thielen into the slot last year and I expect that to happen to Evan Engram or even OBJ this year. He is their biggest Receiver and it’s not close, so I believe he will provide Manning with an inside option like this. That forces his best Receivers out wide. And I don’t think OBJ or Sterling Shepard will have a problem with that – unless Manning can’t deliver. Or Manning goes short to Barkley and inside to Engram like I think will happen and happen often. Which could slightly hurt the overall production of OBJ and Shepard and for those drafting them at their current ADP.
- Yeah, but Pat Shurmur got Case Keenum to be relevant: Puts Manning under pressure now, right? There is a lot of investment in Pat Shurmur, the Rookies drafted and the money spent on bringing in Left Tackle Nate Solder. Pat Shurmur as an OC in Minnesota got a career backup to produce QB1 type numbers with guys who have somewhat been ok, not stellar. They exceeded expectations and to be honest with you that will be a hard act to follow up. After everything that happened to end the 2017 season for the Giants plus all that has been brought in for Manning to perform – I can imagine that expectations are higher than ever.
So.
Here is where I stand with Eli Manning: I think he is 2018’s incredible security blanket like Alex Smith was last year. But that’s about it.
And you indeed are right, Manning fluctuated last season way more than we like. No one in their right minds would have drafted him. And you would have been super reluctant using him on a Bye Round. All of this is common sense.
But, if you jumped the gun and kept or drafted on returning QBs from injury I think he could be a steal where you could get him. He is ALWAYS going late at best and most likely not picked up at all, especially in redraft format.
Andrew Luck, DeShaun Watson, Carson Wentz, Aaron Rodgers all returning from being on the PUP or IR lists last year. Dak Prescott and Russell Wilson have both lost next to all of their weapons and the big year Phillip Rivers was touted for has hit the proverbial skids once Hunter Henry went down. Jameis Winston was hit with a 3 game suspension too – I have just named 8 QBs with some form of cloud over the start of their season. Then there are the QB merry-go-rounds possibly in Buffalo, Cleveland, Baltimore and the NY Jets that have uncertainty over them also. That right there is another 4 QB’s facing some form of uncertainty. I just listed 12 QBs that will be selected, at times, across all platforms of playing Fantasy Football that is likely to be taken with confidence ahead of Eli Manning.
But with the upside available from the players on the field, are we not taking him without hesitation in Superflex or Best-Ball drafts? And with redraft, if you also believe in the late round QB theory then isn’t this an option we should heavily consider?
So, if all the stars align, the Offense comes together that Defence pulls like it did in 2016 and the games bounce their way (for once) while Pat Shurmur gets all the juice out of Manning as he did Case Keenum. With all the Pros. All the Con’s. With everything I have spoken about…..
…..is it possible that at 37 years old and 2 Super Bowl wins to his name, that this is Eli Manning’s break out season?
2018 Prediction – Manning finishes between QB10-15
Attempts: 588.75 (3.06% INCREASE from 2017)
Completions: 364 (3.35% INCREASE from 2017)
Completion %: 61.82% (0.27% INCREASE from 2017)
Passer Rating: 85.875% (6.585% INCREASE from 2017)
Yards: 3975.5 (13.63% INCREASE from 2017)
TD: 26.5 (32.96% INCREASE from 2017)
INT: 15 (14.28% DECREASE from 2017)
I want to thank you for getting this far and taking in everything I have presented. You can as always follow and find me at @TheBLeagueSays and offer any view or conversation about this. Let’s all get better together!
But please, most of all – Enjoy!
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