A ‘Quarterback Guru’, a prodigious talent, and a massive opportunity walked into a bar…
Fine readers of the Going For 2 fanbase my name is @TheBLeagueSays and I am 100% ready to crack back into Pros And Cons for the 2019 season, I have missed you too! And thank you for the awesome feedback and conversations in 2018, I think it’s safe to say we all learned a fair bit and had some fun along the way. Once again please remember that the articles I bring to you leading up to your traditional NFL Fantasy #DraftSZN will be based on the Pros and Cons of players that the Fantasy Football Community has split ideas on.
So before we get started – Thank you, and enjoy!
Ladies and Gentlemen of the @GoingFor_2 universe, I am here today to introduce you to Week One of this year’s ‘Pros And Cons’ topic of conversation, Mr. Jameis Winston. He has been the focal point of recent times due to things like performance, production, and a litany of off the field issues which has at times the people talking about what has happened to the budding career that has people clamoring for him to now do the proverbial, or get off the pot.
Heres the thing, Winston was uber young when he was drafted in age and mentality and was selected by (now former) Head Coach Lovie Smith First Overall by Tampa in 2015. In doing so, a 20 year old and former 2013 Heisman Trophy winner is thrust into the limelight as the new face of a team that had struggled to find its identity for the best part of a decade in a division that had suffocated them out by either Drew Brees and his Saints, Cam Newton and his Panthers and/or Matt Ryan and his Falcons; of recent seasons two teams in his Division have made the Superbowl and another has reached the NFC Championship and was a non-helmet collision away from heading there too. Tampa needed change and Winston’s arrival beckoned from the phone call everyone craves on Draft Day, and Tampa got the enigmatic, talented and mercurial Jameis Winston.
But it’s the apologies that he dishes out that bothers me the most. Following the Uber incident he said the following: “It is uncharacteristic of me and I genuinely apologize, in the past 2 1/2 years my life has been filled with experiences, opportunities, and events that have helped me grow, mature and learn, including the fact that I have eliminated alcohol from my life.” Cool. In the span of maybe five years, Winston’s managed to violate and piss off the opposite sex, cost his Franchise a stack of cash and let down the guys he shares a locker room with while costing others their jobs.
Great.
He’s spoken about taking charge. He’s spoken about making changes but then things like this happen in the offseason out of nowhere; footage has come out of Winston allowing a golfer to hit a ball off the top of his head. That’s the face of an NFL franchise letting someone ‘hopefully’ hit a ball off the top of his head and ideally not crushing the back of his skull.
Acts like this may explain the lack of real, momentous contract talk prior to the season start has been quiet. In all facets of Winston’s life, it seems as though the Buccaneers are telling us that he needs to ‘prove it’ that he has changed and turned his life around. What we have heard out of the Tampa camp is the following: we want him to be honest with us about everything (on and off the field). We need him to grow up and be the leader. And we need to know that he has truly changed.
This year is a big deal.
Winston is in a contract year which for him is great for him because every top Quarterback has been making bank with the massive deals being thrown at them in guaranteed money. And that could be Winston, easily, he has the talent alone to get paid and has at times produced like some of the best in the League and get that guaranteed money like they have. So, to see how good he can really be, in a contract year, they have brought in reinforcements in the form of Bruce Arians who had been retired for a minute but with the chance to have a great young play-caller like Winston is available, Arians must have been licking his chops at this opportunity when it came up. It is said that ‘pressure is a privilege’ and right now Winston has it in spades.
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THE PROS AND CONS
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‘STAT ROUTE SAYS’: For quarterbacks that started 10 or more games in 2018, Winston had the 7th best 3rd down Completion Percentage with 64.3%.
Winston needs to control the turnovers. Interceptions and fumbles. If he can reduce that then the Buccaneers will be in business. For the most part, it feels like most of the turnovers are coming in later stages of the games when they are chasing and trying to push the ball down the field quickly. At times pressure based decision making has been an issue and the Quarterback guru himself, Bruce Arians, will be looking at investing a lot of time into that. Combined with Ryan Fitzpatrick (14th most Intercepts with 12 in 7 starts) in 2018, Winston (7th most Intercepts with 14 in 9 starts) would ultimately have led the League with 26 Intercepts alone. They combined for 624 passing Attempts so you are looking at an Intercept for every 24 Pass Attempts. They would have had 10 more Intercepts than Ben Roethlisberger who had 16 over 675 Attempts, or an Intercept every 42 Pass Attempts.
‘STAT ROUTE SAYS’: In 10 starts, Winston had only 4 games in 2018 with less than 17 Fantasy Points, but also had 4 games with over 25 fantasy points.
‘STAT ROUTE SAYS’: Winston was the QB22 overall despite the lack of games he played, but his average ppg was good to be the QB16 overall. Ryan Fitzpatrick was 5th overall with 25.23 ppg. They combined for 39 TDS, which would have been tied for second overall with Matt Ryan and Andrew Luck.
The Tampa Bay attack sees some personnel turnover as DeSean Jackson is going back (back) to Philly (Philly). Winston and ‘DJax’ struggled at times, to connect and land that big play, and to be fair, Jackson looked better with the Quarterback they let walk so I’m not surprised to see him move on. Adam Humphries, who had the third highest Completion Percentage of Receivers who had over 100 Targets (72.4%), tested Free Agency and got himself paid in joining the Titans.
The more baffling trait that the Buccaneers over recent years have invoked is the mantra of what their run game is or lack thereof. Ronald Jones and his 2018 Rookie Draft 2nd Round Capitol just isn’t that guy it seems; although will be given a clean slate to prove everyone wrong. Peyton Barber is just ‘a guy’ and on a one-year deal who faces Free Agency next year. Bruce Anderson is a guy that Tampa also grabbed as a UDFA out of North Dakota State could be a ‘get late and stash’ kind of talent (but in redraft is that really something you are doing anyway?) who may see work quicker than other Rookies. He isn’t specifically known for having the best hands in the backfield but he is capable with 12-199-3 TDS isn’t anything to sneeze at and – if big Running Backs is something that Bruce Arians has an eye for talent on (Hi, David Johnson) then this could be something to watch and how he gets used as the offseason carries on. A Running Back with pass-catching ability would be a great release valve for Winston, and I would love to see the Buccaneers make a move for say LeSean McCoy or Duke Johnson Jr to further enhance Winston’s weapons.
I also like what they did in the latest Rookie Draft but more specifically who they picked up as Undrafted Free Agents in DaMarkus Lodge from Ole Miss (65-877-4 TDS in 2018) and Anthony Johnson from Buffalo (57-1011-11 TDS in 2018) who are both Wide Receivers this year. Both played with at times inaccurate Quarterbacks that scrambled frequently and I think they could fit what Arians is trying to do. Two names for you to keep an eye on.
So, Tampa has a bad run-game, a poor Defence and three Receivers ready to go with a pipeline of young Rookies coming through and somehow Winston can’t thrive?
SEASON PROJECTION
STATS: ATTEMPTS: 527 / COMPLETION %: 59.99 / COMPLETIONS: 316 / Y.P.C: 12.21 / YARDS: 3858.36 / TDS: 26 / INT: 14 / RUSHING TDS: 2
FINAL FINISH: I think Winston has a solid year and I think he cleans up his act (on the field at least) and has about a typical season to which you would expect. I have him as my QB11, and as mentioned before he is going around the backend QB1 range. I think we can all cut the deck and suggest he can be anywhere from the QB5 (upside towards his ceiling if things break right for him) to the QB16 if he has another one of his ‘up-and-down’ seasons.
GOING FOR 2 DYNASTY VALUE: Highest Rank: Geoff Lambert; @GeoffLambert77 as QB10 / Lowest Rank: Nicholas You; @chalkwhite101 as QB18 (as of 6/17/19). For more Dynasty Consensus Rankings check out: https://goingfor2.com/2019-dynasty-consensus-rankings-dynastyfootball/?fbclid=IwAR3dxletXL0z2jk79H16vg5yzqdvGM4rDJcF7XfnXF-FVYyUO4csSEDE1D8
SUMMARY AND STANCE
You’re hoping he has grown up.
You’re hoping he plays with aggression, with his wits and smarts and finds a steady consistency. You hope to almighty that the turnovers slow down; Bruce Arians and Byron Leftwich are looking for that too. Jason Licht is in demand for it also before he and the Buccaneers brass hand over a potentially life-changing contract. And the beautiful thing is that he is in a team that actually wants him to succeed – there’s no debate who rules the roost – otherwise, they may have thrown more money at Ryan Fitzpatrick this offseason instead of letting him test Free Agency. You’re hoping that he not only lives up to his potential but exceeds it.
So for me, I feel that Winston falls into the ‘Pros’ for the 2019 season if the price is right. Let’s hope he gets it together and lives up to the potential he clearly has.
I want to thank you for getting this far and taking in everything I have presented. You can as always follow and find me at @TheBLeagueSays and offer any view or conversation about this. Let’s all get better together!
Once again, Thank you and Enjoy!
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