The Pros And Cons Of Week 8 (#FantasyFootball)

We were always lead to believe that A + B = C. Well, in the case of Amari Cooper in Oakland this season – we were wrong and given an ‘F’…

Fine readers of the Going For 2 fanbase my name is @TheBLeagueSays and I am 100% certain that Pesto is much better than Marinara! And thank you for the awesome feedback and conversations following last weeks Pros and Cons – it seems to have struck a chord with the audience, but considering the two main candidates for Quarterback change we spoke about last week were the Giants and Raiders, followed by midweek trades for players away from both organizations; I’d have to believe that the rebuild mode is set and Eli Manning and Derek Carr could be in a bit of trouble before the season is through. Still, I am absolutely looking forward to addressing Week 8 with you! Once again please remember that the articles I bring to you will be based on the Pros and Cons of players or scenarios the Fantasy Football Community has split ideas on heading into future fixtures for your matchups.

So before we get started – Thank you, and enjoy!

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This week there has been a stack of articles, podcasts, streams and tweets about the trade of Amari Cooper to Dallas this week. And rightly so; Amari Cooper at the start of the year was a (and one of my) bounce-back candidate after a quiet 2017 for the Oakland Raiders. But I held off to let the dust settle before I had my say about it in a Pros And Cons session.

In the two seasons prior to 2017 Amari Cooper had averaged 131 Targets, 77.5 Receptions, 1111.5 Yards, and 5.5 TDS and finished as the WR21 as a Rookie and the WR14 in his second season, so why we wouldn’t think he could make the next step into the Top 10 was far from a stretch to actually happening. I mean for Fantasy Football purposes and projections his next steps into that bracket were logical. But last year, it all went wrong; the rapport with Derek Carr looked like it was no longer there. A case of ‘the drops’ started to be more apparent and an ankle injury took his burst away. Partner-in-crime Michael Crabtree wasn’t himself either and the dynamic duo started to flail, which saw the end of Crabtree’s time in the Bay Area as a result.

The best thing about Coopers 2017 being quiet is it got us talking about ‘if that was his floor, then the sky is the limit, again, right?’ All these conversations seemed all too familiar and hit close to home. Heres why… At the start of the season whilst having a conversation with @FootballNuke for @TheBackRowShow we decided that an Amari Cooper Pros And Cons piece should be written, so by proxy, Amari Cooper was the first ever Pros And Cons I’d ever attempted. In this instance, I took the ‘Pros’ stance. So seeing him fail this year kind of sucks because I did the research to back him in for a comeback season.

But before I get into any more of this, did you know… 

• That John Gruden has supported a Top 15 Receiver during his time in charge as a Head Coach for Oakland? And that lucky Receiver that Gruden goes to will also see an average of 137 Targets a year. Now with this information, that Wide Receiver sees a 22.8% to 25.2% Target share. Amari Cooper, as mentioned previously, has finished as a Top 15 Receiver before – so I took the A+B=C route here… Cooper as a lead Receiver should have seen more volume based on Gruden’s principles.
• What the Opportunity share was when Michael Crabtree was cut? 16 Targets MORE that Crabtree had than Cooper did in goal-scoring situations were being freed up. 101 Targets MORE from one player last season alone. That’s 8 Touchdowns MORE that Oakland needed to replace – so I took the A+B=C route here again… Cooper as a lead Receiver should have seen more scoring opportunities.
• The numbers of Michael Crabtree’s Red Zone / End Zone Targets were in 2017? Crabtree’s Red Zone Target Share = 14 Targets (35% amongst team), 2nd overall amongst all Receivers in the NFL. Crabtree’s End Zone Target Share = 17 Targets (53.1% amongst team), 2nd overall amongst all Receivers in the NFL – so I took the A+B=C route one last time and thought he would see a positive regression in Touchdowns from the quiet 2017 he had. It made sense to think that these three things would lead to an improvement, statistically anyway.

This approach of ‘Gruden supports one main Receiver’ who does well statistically at the end of the year, along with Crabtree being cut left more Targets per week, which then in return opens up more opportunities as a scoring threat closer to the end zone. Cooper was our easy answer to any question we had about who steps up, and who takes over. Not Jared Cook. Not Jordy Nelson. Hell, we even thought Marshawn Lynch was done because of the Doug Martin recruitment. Cooper was Derek Carr’s only constant theme.

So, again it made sense, right? A+B=C. It was simple math. Carr’s only weapon. Addition by subtraction. Narratives and Cliche’s fired up. And we were so, so right about this…

Nope. We were wrong.

Amari Cooper’s pace over 16 games this year in Oakland would have looked like this; 85 Targets / 58 Receptions / 12.73 Yards Per Reception / 738 Yards / 2.6 TDS – I won’t lie – if that is the way that Cooper was being used and this production was going to be his end result then I would absolutely take the 1st Round Pick that was offered by Dallas and twice on Sunday. Oakland was able to ship off a guy who was underperforming this year (and last year too) and cashed him into their third 1st Round Pick of next years Rookie Draft. Fantastic bit of business on their end, in my opinion. These aren’t good numbers by Coopers standards let alone anyone else. 

Hey! @TheBLeagueSays! What would you know! You couldn’t catch the clap at a Whitesnake concert! Stop talking about catches like you could do a better job! I’d bet your middle name is Dropsy Magoo!

Yeah, there are four things that are a problem with this, pal;

1. You make it seem like not getting the clap is a bad thing…
2. I don’t want the clap…
3. I wouldn’t go to a Whitesnake concert. I have no issues with them, they’re fine. But I’ll pass! I have other things to do.
4. My middle name is John. Yep, John… Boring, but a slightly better than Dropsy Magoo.

But while I have your attention how about this:

These potential end of season stats that Amari Cooper may have ended up with (hey they could have got better… alternatively they could have also got much worse too), would have been good enough to be (in Fantasy Football anyways) in the WR40 ranges in 2017, with the likes of Jamison Crowder, Keelan Cole and Kelvin Benjamin. But right now, Amari Cooper is hanging around the WR60 range currently with guys like David Moore and Tavon Austin (who is also on the Cowboys roster this season); clearly not returning any interest from his Round 3-5 Average Draft Position this year, as everyone had hoped for.

So, what happens next for Oakland? Does this hurt Derek Carr? Honestly, no. Here’s why:

Jordy Nelson, Martavis Bryant, Jared Cook, Seth Roberts, and Jalen Richard will all pitch in to cover for roughly the 5 Targets per game that Amari Cooper has left behind. So one extra Target each? I think that’s manageable… But seeing as the Raiders have been over 21 points once this year and the loss of Marshawn Lynch to the Injured Reserve isn’t going to slow down the passing game so for me these guys all get a slight boost moving forward.

The only way this ‘hurts’ Derek Carr is if he stinks it up so much that they decide to move on from him at the end of the season. And the way that John Gruden is culling his squad that may be a good thing for Carr. Hypothetically, if he gets cut or traded in the offseason and lands in New York with the Giants how is that bad for him? I mean a young squad like that can’t be worse than seeing an aging veteran with half busted knees, old pan-hands Jared Cook or the barely 2 Yards-Per-Carry Doug Martin will ‘earn’. Win or lose I think Derek Carr could benefit from this.

As for the Cowboys… Amari Cooper’s addition hurts who exactly?

I think it helps Dak Prescott because anything is an upgrade over Terrence Williams, right? Cole Beasley‘s role won’t change in the slot, and Rookie Michael Gallup has started to come along stretching the field. Yes, 5-3-81 yards-1TD this week against Washington was a nice thing to see, but let’s not forget that in the week prior against Jacksonville he also had a Touchdown overturned for not having a second foot down – so that could have been Touchdowns in consecutive games for him too. My guess is (that the odd man out for the Receivers) going to be Allen Hurns (R.I.P. Pros And Cons subject), that eventually fades from this squad.

Also, Zack Martin strained an MCL last week and Travis Frederick is still not in action due to illness, so this move keeps the opposition at least a little more honest to focus on a true threat like Cooper, so in the end, it should also help out the front five and the run-game headed by Ezekial Elliott.

Dallas is on the Bye this week and Cooper gets plenty of time to get some idea of what he needs to do. Taking this into consideration – and please remember I am not comparing the players, just the similarities within the circumstances – after being traded for a 5th Round Pick, it took Josh Gordon two games to score his first Touchdown for the Patriots and four games to go over 100 yards for the first time too. Once again (I get it), different players and teams involved, but the circumstances of a trade mid-year I think might not be the worst thing that happened for all parties involved.

I’m just saying it feels like everyone wins here…

Right, @TheBLeagueSays; enough with that, it’s been a week of this already. What are…

THE PROS

Ronald Jones poached one…

Last Week Ronald Jones poached a Touchdown on the goal line against Cleveland. Now I’m not the biggest Dynasty guy, and we all know the struggles that Tampa has had drafting players in the 2nd Round (coughRoberto Aguayocough). And Jones’ limitations as a pass-catcher have been heavily vocalized, along with probably not being as talented as a Kerryon Johnson or Derrius Guice coming out of the Draft. His combine was kind of rough too. But without really playing I feel like this kid has been dragged through the mud a little too much. Eight games into his career, I get it we all want results yesterday. But if he can work his way into more touches then by the end of the year he may be a hell of an asset.

Now, Peyton Barber looks like he is right to play this week. Which isn’t great for those who (may) have to play Ronald Jones this week. However, the Bengals are Ranked 5th Overall for allowing points against by Running Backs (an average of 24.14 Points Per Game). So if there was to be any hope for him to do something again and Jameis Winston can get the Buccaneers close enough to score; then Jones is a chance to punch one in.

Bengals bounce back game…

Speaking of a potentially high scoring game. Tampa is on the road in Cincinnati this week and they are not very good against slot Receivers. Enter Tyler Boyd who plays close to 70% of his routes out of the slot. On top to that, Tampa concedes roughly 30-plus points per game to the Receiver position.

Now I don’t want to fall for the ‘A+B+C’ gimmick again… But I will, Tyler Boyd against a team who can’t slow down slot Receivers equals Fantasy Gold this week – Book it!

Mike McCoy is gone from Arizona, and Larry Fitzgerald and David Johnson Drafters rejoice…

Yikes. Arizona. What were you thinking? A ‘ground and pound’ gameplan with one of the best ‘outside runners’ in David Johnson who was being forced up the middle with one of the worst Offensive Lines in the league was kind of a dumb idea. And not targetting him in the passing game either is probably something that contributed to his third firing within a year. Larry Fitzgerald was a little banged up too, so I get some of the production issues. But the guy is a warrior and part of me thinks there is more to this than what has been said.

Conspiracies aside…

Byron Leftwich takes over as the Cardinals Offensive Coordinator and is a product of the Bruce Arians tree – he was with him in Pittsburgh as a Quarterback when Arians coached there. If Leftwich is smart he goes back to what made Arizona hard to stop when Carson Palmer was calling plays with the simple premise of ‘give your best players the ball as often as possible in the positions they continually succeed the most in’. In other words; chuck it to David Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald as often as possible and hope Christian Kirk can connect on a deep-ball like John Brown used to do. It worked for the Cardinals then, there’s no reason why it can’t work again now.

Leftwich has the opportunity to set himself up in Arizona as their future play-caller. Let’s hope he doesn’t screw it up. But then again, McCoy half buried them already so how much worse can it get?

Short and sweet @TheBLeague, it’s about time we got that from you! Tell us, what are…

THE CONS

Oakland, again…

Ok, so everything I mentioned about Amari Cooper and the Raiders above I stand by. What I am not willing to do is try to get cute and say I know what’s going to happen. Sure, other Receivers may get a bit more love and hey, I hope Derek Carr keeps his haters quiet for a week after what feels like a couple months of scrutiny and turmoil since John Gruden rocked up as their new coach.

But the Colts Defense is no joke. In terms of Fantasy Points Against, the Colts Rank 20th against the Quarterback, 17th against the Running Back, 25th against Wide Receivers and 12th against Tight Ends. The Colts Rank 2nd overall for Total Tackles, equal 4th for Sacks and have recovered six of eight Forced Fumbles.

This is going to be a tough week coming off a Bye for the Raiders and I will take the ‘sit-and-watch’ approach to their matchup at home against Indianapolis to see how they take shape.

Crash and burn, the life of a New York Jets player…

Sam Darnold is a Saint. 20 years old, and doing good things in his Rookie season it is hard to fault him and his efforts…

However… the injury bug has hit the gangrene harder than most this week. No Quincy Enunwa. No Bilal Powell. No Terrelle Pryor. Possibly no Robby Anderson. Isaiah Crowell has had issues too. There’s no way I’m trusting Jermaine Kearse again after last weeks doughnut, and there’s no way recent recruit Rishard Matthews is up to speed with everything. On the plus side of things, Brice Butler practiced with the team midweek. So there’s that…

It’s going to be a tough week for the Jets who face a Chicago Bears team who are recently on a two-game losing streak courtesy of New England and Miami. Minimal weapons and Khalil Mack looking to right their previous wrongs?

Nope. No thanks. Pass.

Pittsburgh…More like Sacksburgh, am I right?

Pittsburgh is currently coming equal second in the league for Sacks (22) and Cleveland have allowed the most Sacks (31) this season. So to think that Cleveland can get away from T.J. Watt and company without Carlos Hyde, Josh Gordon (both who have been traded since their Week One 21-21 draw) and Rashard Higgins who is still out injured; there is a different feel to this Browns team 7 Rounds later from when they first met this season. David Njoku has come along with Baker Mayfield who has taken over from Tyrod Taylor, but sacks are sacks and the Browns have done little to stop them from happening to whoever is under center.

On top of all that, they get the Steelers after a week of rest and in the Steel City where although have had a leaky Defense at the start of the season, have only allowed 21 points to Cincinnati and 17 points to Atlanta; who are two of the more prolific, high scoring teams in back-to-back outings.

I have a gut feeling this could be a week where Cleveland gets an absolute belting. Sacks, forced fumbles, turnovers, pick-6’s. The whole Magilla…

PROJECTIONS

All projections are for the respective Players ceiling

David Johnson: Carries; 17 / Yards Per Carry; 3.64 / Yards; 61.88 / TDS; 1 / Targets; 6 / Receptions; 4 / Yards Per Reception; 9.64 / Yards; 38.56 / TDS; 1

Tyler Boyd: Targets; 9 /  Catch Rate; 90.4% / Receptions; 8 / YPC; 15.13 / Yards; 21.04 / TDS; 2

Jordy Nelson: Targets; 6 /  Catch Rate; 63% / Receptions; 4 / YPC; 13.79 / Yards; 55.16 / TDS; 1

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SUMMARY

Beat writers this week have been talking about Derek Carr losing his locker room (although there is a massively different feel to this team than in the past so I’m not sure it should have been assumed it was his, to begin with…) and have highlighted him at being a candidate to be traded away at end of the year. And considering results I’m not that surprised. But the Wide Receivers that are available at his disposal aren’t that bad. I want you to consider the following:

Two years ago Amari Cooper had 1153 yards and 5 Touchdowns with Derek Carr. Jordy Nelson (who had Aaron Rodgers) had 1257 yards and 14 Touchdowns. Martavis Bryant missed 2016 due to suspension, however, in 2015 he had 765 yards and 6 Touchdowns (with Ben Roethlisberger). All three of these guys that are in Oakland were all roughly at their peak in 2016. Now I know they aren’t performing at that level right now – but at this point which one of the three serves as their most valuable asset?

Is it the 33-year-old veteran that was considered ‘washed-up’ at the start of the year. Or the ‘will he, won’t he get suspended saga’ that has followed Martavis Bryant all offseason? In reality, despite poor performances, Cooper is the odd-man out that carried any actual value. He’s fit and healthy. He’s extremely young, yet experienced. In the right environment could be an investment worth taking a chance at.

Now I want you to rewind to the offseason and the Rookie Draft that took place. Dallas was keen on Calvin Ridley and as we know (for the umpteenth time) that Cooper is only slightly older than the Alabama prodigy (where Cooper also went to College), and they didn’t pull the trigger on Courtland Sutton either, who was a local S.M.U. Wide Receiver who had the home fans jumping at the thought of him being selected. But for a 1st Round Pick, right now they have a guy who, has the same (if not better) tangibles and comes with 3-4 years of NFL experience. For a team that was (probably going to be) looking for a Receiver that they really only have to re-wire then I think they got a steal.

Here’s the problem with all of this:

Firstly, we know that even though Dallas came calling for a ‘top’ Receiver, Quarterback Dak Prescott pretty much (again) squashed the idea of having a ‘lead’ Receiver… and to be fair he shouldn’t want one. Because we all saw how that played out for Dez Bryant when he was begging for the ball and calling for more Targets – it pretty much ended his time there. If Prescott can’t deliver to a lead Receiver then he may get exposed for being a one-dimensional game manager and that is not good for a contract negotiation extension, which he will enter into sooner than later.

Secondly, Dallas runs the ball pretty much more than anyone else, so it may be tough to expect a sudden change in philosophy. And as I mentioned before, even though others have switched teams (like Josh Gordon) and had some success not everyone is set up the same (like landing with Tom Brady and New England). So it may take a bit longer for him to carve out his actual role, even though it’s (to me) unquestionable he is their best Receiver already.

Anyways, that’s about enough on something that has been beaten to death this week. As I have said before I think everyone looks at just one side of a situation. I think what happened to Amari Cooper, Oakland and Dallas presented the perfect case for a Mid-Season Pros And Cons conversation.

And in this case, they all tend to get what they want. Oakland gets another 1st Round draft Pick, Dallas gets an experienced Receiver – a position that they would likely have taken with their 1st Round Draft pick next year and Amari Cooper gets out of a bad team tanking the season away. So this week, for me, The Pros win-out.

I want to thank you for getting this far and taking in everything I have presented. Set your lineups accordingly and check out the DFS and Weekly Content all the hard-working staff is pumping out to get you best prepared. Also – download the Going For 2 app, then and rate, review and share with your loved ones. You all deserve it!

You can as always follow and find me at @TheBLeagueSays and offer any view or conversation about this. Let’s all get better together!

Once again, Thank you and Enjoy!

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