The Ultimate Guide to Filling Out Your 2022 March Madness Bracket

Kyle Bazin

It is an amazing time of the year between Champ Week (where projected one seeds go down in their first game like Baylor and Auburn) and the Final Four (where a Cinderella is known to be spotted).

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In this article, you will find tournament facts, tournament trends, data from various sources, and most of all you will find my terrible opinions on some of my favorite upsets and my pick for who will lift the trophy. It is going to be a long article so just take a look at the subheadings to check whatever you may find interesting.

In this beast of an article I have 5 different sections: Introducing the 2022 Bracket, Tournament Facts/History, Tournament Trends, Finding My Upset(s), Picking my Champion. All of them are listed here, but if you would like to view only one or two you can click on the links and be taken directly to those articles with just that information. Either way, thank you for reading this article and I hope you learn something.

If you think you have better picks than some of the ones I give away, I’d love for you to join a Bracket Challenge with me. It is just going to be a free thing so there is no harm if you aren’t too familiar with filling out a bracket. But doing one of these is always a good way to get into the game a little more and have some interaction. In this group, I will encourage people to put their serious bracket in there but if you also want to throw a funny one in that is cool. Note: You must have at least created a bracket to join a group, you don’t need to submit it until the games start on Thursday at noon eastern. 

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There are a few ways to do this. If you want to do it in a browser just sign in to your ESPN account and go to this link. If you are doing it inside the ESPN Tournament Challenge app (it’s a very good app, highly recommend for filling out the bracket vs browser) there should be a Create/Join Group button on the bracket you want to enter into the group. Click that and there is a search button at the top right. Same thing search ‘KyleTheCommish’. 

If all of this is too confusing there is a way to invite you through email and also a way to invite you through a link. I’ll send those out to anyone that requests one. 

Good luck! If you have any questions, don’t be afraid to ask.

First Thoughts About the 2022 Bracket

Every year there are always “snubs” and over/under seeds and I normally don’t like to get too much into that. Not everyone can win in the tournament but we have seen magical runs from teams that no one expected into the Final Four and even lifting up the trophy despite their seed. So seeding normally doesn’t matter too much in my eyes. 

I am once again going to come out and say it. Besides a few games here and there this year, I didn’t see most of these teams play (besides the ACC teams) until Champ Week started. Last year, I watched a game from almost every single team that made the tournament. This year I was not as concerned with the smaller conferences, so my opinion of the mid-majors may not be as accurate this year. Then again… was it all that accurate last year? (The answer is no)

Some interesting opening betting lines for people looking at potential Round 1 upsets.

There aren’t many initial thoughts I have about the bracket this year. The locations/venues are not new. There are a few teams that have to make some weird trips like the 4 seed Arkansas being in Buffalo against 13 seeded Vermont, and if they advance to play 5 seed UCONN they will be the team with the crowd disadvantage in both games. But one thing that I can’t shake is that the Final Four will be on TBS instead of CBS for the first time in forever. Perhaps it is because CBS is trying to push people to Paramont+… but how many people who have cable don’t have TBS? Am I the only one that noticed that? Oh well, let’s have a great tourney.

The Big 6 Conferences

I feel good about which conferences are strong this year and consequently which aren’t as strong. Let’s jump into the big 6 leagues.

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The ACC features 5 teams in the field this year; Duke, UNC, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, and Miami. The top 4 teams in the regular season and Va Tech, who struggled early in the season but ended up winning the ACC tournament. Duke, who is a 2 seed, did not beat up on enough teams in the ACC this year. They may be 28-6 and have quality non-conference wins, but they weren’t as dominating to the weak conference (per the Committee’s evaluation of only having 5 teams) as they should have been. I wonder how long these teams will last.

#CarolinaBlitz: Will Duke make it to the Final Four? – Powered By PickUp
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The Pac-12 is always an interesting conference that surprises people in the tourney. However they only have 3 teams this year, yet they are all seeded 7th or higher. Arizona, UCLA, and USC aren’t without their warts but all have very good talent and great coaching to be able to make a run. UCLA is looking to make it back to the Final Four after going on a Cinderella run last year. While Arizona is looking to return to glory for the first time since 1997.

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The Big East has a total of 6 teams in the field but I’m a bit worried. Providence won their regular-season title but they played fewer games because of a COVID pause. They had less wins than Villanova, but they also had fewer losses. Villanova beat Creighton in the finals of their conference tournament, but both teams struggled mightily shooting the ball. Creighton slows the game down tremendously and both teams combined for only 37 points in the first half. And don’t forget about UCONN who has a couple of studs in Sanogo down low and RJ Cole in the backcourt. Creighton, Seton Hall, and Marquette all feature in an 8-9 game which leads me to believe their time in this tournament may be limited. The reason I am worried about these teams is I don’t know if Creighton will be able to score enough with their slow tempo to upset a 1 seed. I don’t know if Villanova will be efficient enough to hold off an incredibly efficient Loyola-Chicago. I don’t know if I can trust anything Providence has shown me even though they are a 4 seed. There is some of the best guard play in the nation in this conference but I am just a bit skeptical.

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The Big 10 has like 46 teams… it has been this way for years can we fix it already? There are a lot of legit teams in this conference. Illinois, Iowa, Wisconsin, Purdue, and Michigan St. All of them can beat any single team in this tournament on any given day which makes them extremely dangerous. You also have teams like Michigan and Indiana who snuck in the tournament as bubble teams. Indiana went on a run to the semifinal in the conference tournament before losing to Iowa, which likely got them in as a First Four team. And you can’t forget about EJ Liddell’s Ohio St. He is one of the best forwards in the nation but was unable to carry them past Oral Roberts as a 2 seed in last year’s tournament. I think the Big 10 will rebound off of last year’s traumatic tourney, but which of these teams makes a deep run? Any of them really can.

Now we get into the best two conferences in my opinion. The Big 12 (only 10 teams… I mean c’mon) and the SEC.

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The Big 12 is so strong that Oklahoma almost made the tournament which would have been the 7th out of 9 possible teams that were eligible to make it. If Oklahoma St was eligible to play in the postseason they would have 7 out of 10 teams. Let’s start with Baylor and Kansas, two 1 seeds. Baylor is trying to repeat as Champion for the first time since the Florida Gators in 06-07. They do have some key injuries on their team which will test their depth and rim protection, but they are a very strong defensive team overall. Baylor was upset in the first round of the Big 12 tournament by said Oklahoma team. Kansas was upset by USC in the 2nd round last year but has one of the country’s best players in Ochai Agbaji and is looking to follow up their Big 12 Regular Season Title and Tournament Title with a National Championship. Texas Tech is coming off a great Big 12 tournament run to the finals but will need to break the Big12/3 seed curse (see ‘Does Seeding Matter? First and Second Round’). Texas as a 6 seed seems way too high for me but they will face off against the hottest team in the country in Va Tech so I guess there are some bittersweet feelings there. They are great defensively but can get into foul trouble and aren’t efficient on offense. Iowa St and TCU come into the tournament as teams that you don’t want to face. TCU has beaten Kansas and Texas Tech in back-to-back games this year, while Iowa St has beaten Texas, Texas Tech, and Iowa. Any given gameday.

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Finally, the SEC… “We’re just better” or something like that. Well, they may just be. Auburn, Kentucky, and Tennessee are all top 3 seeds in the tourney. Tennessee plays extremely well on the defensive end and has some older players on their team, they will be ready for this moment. Just as they were to win the SEC tournament on Sunday. Kentucky, as always, is extremely young but has possibly the best big man in the country in Oscar Tshiebwe. He averages 17 points and 15 rebounds… per game. That is silly. Auburn is the 3rd team I will mention but that is not to be taken lightly. Auburn is extremely fast and is also extremely good defensively. Coach Bruce Pearl lead them to the Final Four a few years back based on those same principles. If they are hitting their shots, they are virtually unbeatable. Even though they have dropped 4 of their last 9 games, you can’t count out War Eagle. Oh, and there is this other team… Arkansas they are a 4 seed. They made a run to the Elite 8 last year on the back of JD Notae, who returned to school, and is ready to lead them further this season. LSU just fired their head coach a few days ago so they will have an interim going into the tournament, but I don’t think they will magically forget that they are the best stealing team in the country with 11.1 per game. Finally, you have Alabama which has lost 3 in a row. However, when they are at their best they have beaten Baylor, Tennessee, Arkansas, Houston, Gonzaga, and Miami. I do question the fact that they are a 6 seed, but that resume is as good as anyone’s in the country.

Tournament Facts/History

As a preface to this, all of these stats were provided by ESPN Stats & Info either in this article from 2021, this article from 2022, or from the Bracketology show. NONE OF THESE STATS ARE PREDICTIVE. However, I find some of these really important to help keep things in perspective when I am picking my bracket. If I am between two things, I generally will let history break the tie. I will mark the ones I think are important to keep in mind with ***.

Does Seeding Matter? First and Second Round:

Does Seeding Matter? Sweet 16 & Elite 8: (2021 data updated with 2022 teams)

Does Seeding Matter? Final Four + Championship:

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Upsets:

Random Tidbits:

No. 4 Providence vs. No. 13 South Dakota State: Who wins? – Powered By PickUp
No. 6 Colorado State vs. No. 11 Michigan: Who wins? – Powered By PickUp

Wooden Watch Players (2020 article updated with 2022 players)

Conference Titles mean success in the NCAA Tournament? (2020 article with updated 2022 teams)

More Non-Predictive Stats (2020 article updated with 2022 teams)

Just Good Advice

Keys to a Good Bracket

There are no obvious tells for what a good upset looks like. But one thing you can look at is the rebounding margin. Teams with more possessions have more chances to score. Math.

Another thing you can do to help your chances of winning your pool is mitigating your risk by picking favorites that rely less on the 3 point shot. If a team is having an off-night and can’t rely on getting easy buckets they may be more likely to feature a scoring slump.

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Notable Injuries (*** denotes very important player)

2021-22 Interesting Stats/Facts by Team

Hottest teams coming into the tourney:

Tournament Trends

As I mentioned, none of the stats in the Tournament Facts were predictive. But here are some trends that I have picked up in some of my research over the last few weeks. First, here are some trends I found that were interesting specifically from last year’s tournament.

First Round Winners

Sweet>Salty

It’s the Final Countdown

March Madness: Who will win the National Championship? – Powered By PickUp

How to get a Perfect Sweet 16 (2020 article)

Assists + Top 10 Ranking = Final Four? (2020 article)

Narrowing down your Final Four to the Final One (2019 article)

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*= teams with eFG% > 56%

Finding an Upset Special

This is where a lot of my own big brain research started. And by big brain I mean…

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Last year, I did an insane deep dive in my March Madness Bracket article. I was trying to find what these teams that made a run into the Sweet 16 had in common. What I found was none of them were perfect. Some of them were offensive juggernauts and others were impenetrable forces on defense. Not surprising since there are many ways to win in March. With this being my 2nd year doing this deep dive, I had the opportunity to look back on what my results yielded. All of the metrics below (besides Points Per Game and Assist/turnover margin) were used last year and it gave me a couple of teams that won a game in the tourney, but I wasn’t able to find UCLA, Oregon St, Loyola-Chicago, or Syracuse (I didn’t include 15 seeds so I don’t know about Oral Roberts). It did correctly note that Oregon was in a good position for 2 wins but I need to close that gap and identify what those other teams did and why I liked the higher seeds more than them.

There is only one metric from last year that I used in which all five of those teams appeared together… turnovers. There is one metric that I used for the final four metrics that I didn’t include in the upset specials because it wasn’t as strongly correlated (or so I thought)… Assist/Turnover margin. I am plugging that one in this year and taking out turnovers. Here are the results.

Assist/Turnover Margin

I mentioned that the five teams above were part of my control group for finding a more precise metric that all of these teams were very strong in and could correlate to success in the tournament. Unironically, taking care of the ball and sharing the ball with your teammates is a good idea in a team sport. Each of those five teams ranked in the top 60 in the nation in this stat and averaged over a ratio of 1.2. I will use 1.2 as the low bar for these upset teams and I am going to give 2 points to people that qualify with that metric.

This is also one of the best measuring sticks for Final Four teams as well… maybe we will see another 7 seed (or higher) make a run. Perhaps Miami, who checks in with a 1.461, which is 18th in the nation ahead of teams like Purdue, Kentucky, and most importantly Auburn (their potential 2nd round matchup). Maybe you’re looking for that First Four team that always wins a game? Notre Dame is 26th in the nation at 1.376. Better than both of those teams are Colgate and Vermont. The Catamounts (Vermont) only trail Duke and Iowa among teams in the tournament.

Points Per Game

I looked at every upset in last year’s tournament. In those games, the winning team scored over 70 points in eleven of the fourteen games. This is something that is necessary for me. If you can’t score you likely aren’t going to beat a better team on paper but because it is a one-and-done type of format anything can happen. Of the 9 teams that made up those 14 upsets, they averaged 73.6 PPG last year. I am going to round down and use 73.5 PPG as the benchmark for finding upsets.

Watch out for South Dakota St. They average a ridiculous 85.5 points per game which is 2nd in the nation behind only Gonzaga. UAB also averages over 79 points a game. Yes, their schedules don’t often see a bunch of stellar defensive teams like UAB will face in Houston, but if you have the ability to score that much you can win any game. UNC is the highest Power 5 upset special team on this list at 77.5 PPG, which checks in at 22nd in the nation.

Effective FG%

My control group from 2017-19 had every team except one with an effective FG% rate of 52% or greater. However, Oregon St and Syracuse both did not meet that threshold this past year. Cuse was close at 51.2% but Oregon St was a lot like the other lone team that made the Sweet 16 which was South Carolina back in 2017. They were both below 50% which is in the bottom half of the country. However, both teams made a run to the Elite 8 because they were able to score over 70 points in every game they won in the tourney (except one). They are definite outliers in this bunch so I am going to keep the rate at 52% which will include about a quarter of teams in the country.

This stat is another very effective measuring statistic for Final Four teams. Guess who the #1 team in the nation is? THE JACKRABBITS THAT’S WHO! South Dakota St scores and scores and they are pretty damn efficient about it too. A 59.7% effective FG% just beats out Gonzaga for the top spot in the nation, with Vermont in 3rd. Loyola-Chicago joins the top 10 party with 56.3%. For major programs, you don’t have to scroll too far. Ohio St, Virginia Tech, Miami, and Notre Dame are all in the top 30 at above 54%.

KenPom Efficiency Rankings

I love using KenPom. If I am between two teams I almost always will default to KenPom. Therefore it is only right that I designate which teams reach certain benchmarks set by our control group. The averages from that group are as follows: 113.4 offense, 94.7 defense. You will look at those numbers and they will mean nothing, so let me explain. The offensive number is how many points the team would score per 100 possessions. The defensive number is how many points the team would allow per 100 possessions.

For comparison’s sake, 113.4 on offense includes 27 teams in the nation whereas 94.7 on defense is a bit more lenient and includes 35 teams. Not just tournament teams but every team in the nation.

Below are the teams that hit one of the metrics. Offense is in the first group. Defense is in the second. Zero teams hit both metrics.

The fact that no teams seeded 7th or higher hit both marks (top 35 on defense and top 26 on offense) is quite disappointing. Last year, we had two teams (UCLA and Creighton) achieve both and achieve success in the tourney. We also had Oregon and Wisconsin who were right near that mark that won their first games each. The closest teams in 2022 based on my estimation are UNC, Memphis, Murray St, and Virginia Tech. UNC and Memphis are on the 8/9 line. Murray St is a 7, but Virginia Tech may be in a good spot as an 11 to go through a 6 and then a 3/14 matchup. A lot of people are probably keying on the Hokies because of their ACC run but KenPom agrees.

3 Pointers

One of the best ways to win in March Madness is just to shoot your opponent out of the gym. If your team just can’t stop hitting 3s, they will be tough to beat. So I need to take a look at 3 point FG% AND 3 point FG Attempt Rate. A team can shoot 3s great, but if they don’t utilize it very much, what’s the point of them being included.

36% is the average for our control group and is a pretty elite group. Only 15% of schools in the nation average that or above. In the tournament, we only have 19 teams.

Our control group didn’t rely on the 3 ball as their only source of offensive power. They were about average with only a 37% 3 point attempt rate. Any 7 seeds or worse that fall too far under or too far above that rate I will throw out. The reason I want too far above thrown out as well is that if these teams have an off-night shooting, they may not have other means of scoring consistently. I will mention the teams with very high 3 point att rates and high shooting percentages though. 32% and lower and 42% and higher catches 4 teams, however, the highest any of them were at was 43.1% so I will keep them in the sample. So we are down to 13 teams that are great at shooting 3 pointers but have other means of offense. 

(Each of the 4 teams that were caught by my 10% filter was above the 42% rate. Colgate was at 42.1% and the other three were all between 43.0% and 43.2%. I designated which teams were above with a ^ sign in the data below.)

As you may have guessed by now… South Dakota St is who I am picking to win the entire tournament. They once again lead the nation in another category. They shoot and sink the 3-ball at an astounding 44.2% clip. The next closest team in the nation is a whole 4% points behind them (spoiler alert: that team is Colgate) and the first big boy school checks in at 3rd which is Virginia Tech at 39.3%. Almost 5% better than the closest Power 5. Another team that has been pretty great in some of these other statistics that I haven’t mentioned by name yet is Davidson, who checks into the top 10 at 38.4% with UAB following up behind them in 9th. Loyola-Chicago and Notre Dame are 2 of the 4 teams I flagged for shooting too many 3’s but they are both above 37.7% at hitting them, which is 20th in the nation.

Opponent 3 Point %

One last thing that I haven’t mentioned yet is defense. If shooting your opponent out of the gym is the best way to beat them, the 2nd best way might be to prevent the other team from shooting you out. When looking at defensive statistics over the control group, a few of them were great on defense, but there weren’t many commonalities between statistics. Steals, rebounding, opposing FG%, blocks, nothing was consistent. The best I could find was opponent 3 pointers. This year it grabbed only 23% of the nation which is pretty good.

Our control group had a pretty stingy 32.4% on their opponent 3 point FG percentage.

San Francisco checks into the top 10 on a list and leads the way for our upset teams at a measly 28.9% for opponents. South Dakota St would be screwed if they made only that amount of 3s! Iowa St also makes an appearance as they are also allowing under 30% from 3. The only other upset teams that are in the top 30 in the nation are New Mexico St and Murray St.

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The Data/Teams

Last year, this data found a few teams that pulled off some March magic. Rutgers and Abilene Christian both had a nice first upset win but weren’t able to advance from there. UCLA made it to the Final 4 as an 11 seed but only made this list in both 3 pointers categories. By no means is this list an exact science but every team with 0 or 1 points lost in the first round except for 2 (out of 14). Food for thought.

I included all teams seeded 7th or worse in my above measurements. However, I don’t really expect a 16 or a 15 to win multiple games. If we get rid of those, here are all of the teams that were included in each yield. Team seed in parenthesis.

Assist/Turnover Margin (2 points): Loyola-Chicago, Murray St, Michigan St, Michigan, Indiana, UNC, Marquette, Rutgers, South Dakota St, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, Miami, Davidson, Colgate, Vermont

Points Per Game: Longwood, Ohio St, Marquette, Davidson, Vermont, Miami, Montana St, Memphis, Colgate, San Francisco, Murray St, UNC, UAB, South Dakota St

Effective FG%: Michigan St, UNC, New Mexico St, Michigan, Wyoming, Marquette, Memphis, Chatanooga, Akron, UAB, Murray St, San Francisco, Montana St, Notre Dame, Miami, Virginia Tech, Davidson, Colgate, Loyola-Chicago, Vermont, South Dakota St

KenPom Efficiency (will be designated with a k): UNC, Memphis, Murray St, and Virginia Tech

3 Pointers: UNC, Montana St, Vermont^, Ohio St, Notre Dame^, Michigan St, Loyola-Chicago^, UAB, Davidson, Longwood, Virginia Tech, Colgate^, South Dakota St

Opponent 3 Point%: Boise St, UAB, Montana St, Memphis, Notre Dame, Marquette, Virginia Tech, Creighton, Loyola-Chicago, Michigan St, Longwood, Seton Hall, Chatanooga, Yale, San Diego St, Wyoming, Murray St, New Mexico St, Iowa St, San Francisco

Based on this data… who looks like they could be this year’s Cinderella?

6 Points: None
5 Points: UNC (8k), Loyola-Chicago^ (10), Murray St (7k), Michigan St (7), Marquette (9), South Dakota St (13), Virginia Tech (11k), Notre Dame^ (11FF), Davidson (10), Colgate^ (14), Vermont^ (13)
4 Points: Miami (10), Montana St (14)
3 Points: Michigan (11), Longwood (14), Memphis (9k), San Francisco (10), UAB (12)
2 Points: Indiana (12FF), Rutgers (11FF), Ohio St (7), New Mexico St (12), Wyoming (12FF), Chatanooga (13)

Teams seeded 7-14 with ZERO OR ONE point: Akron (13), Richmond (12), Boise St (8), Creighton (9), San Diego St (8), Seton Hall (8), TCU (9), Yale (14), Iowa St (11), USC (7)

*k = In the Kenpom top 40 for adjEM
^ = Shoots more than 42% 3 point shots
FF = First Four

Summary & My Upset Specials

We had 6 key measurements to try to find an upset based on research over multiple years of teams seeded 7th or higher that have made it to the Sweet 16. Keep in mind that we are looking for these teams to win multiple games. I love hitting on upsets in the first round as much as anyone, but I am getting greedy and want more.

None of our teams hit in every single category. 10 teams didn’t even get up to 2 points in our metrics which knocks out almost 30% of our field. We even had three 8 seeds and a 7 seed in that group. Yikes.

The good news is there are plenty of teams to like. If we start with our 4 teams that were flagged by our KenPom metrics, 3 of them have 5 out of a possible 6 points, UNC, Murray St, and Virginia Tech. Va Tech missed on PPG, UNC missed on defending the 3 ball, and Murray St missed on shooting the 3 ball. Of those 3 missed metrics, I think I could live with defending the 3 ball as the metric I didn’t hit.

Loyola-Chicago shoots the 3 point shot better than most teams in the country and they shoot it at a high clip as well. Confusingly, they didn’t hit the PPG threshold. This is because their pace of play is so slow. Generally, this is a good thing for the tournament so I am keeping my eye on them. It’s impossible to look past Michigan St in March but they have the same issue as Loyola. They aren’t able to score enough PPG for our threshold. Notre Dame is the only First Four team amongst our leading group because they also didn’t hit the PPG threshold. If they can beat Rutgers, they will face a struggling Alabama team in the First Round.

Marquette and Davidson are 2 mid-majors going up against big-time programs in UNC and Michigan St respectively. Marquette didn’t meet our 3 point threshold. Davidson can shoot the dickens out of the ball but struggle to defend the 3. Both of those weak points could be exploited.

I noted in the “NCAA Facts ‘Is Seeding Important? First Round'” section that in 8 of the last 11 tournaments a 13 seed has beat a 4 seed. If it happens again this year, I’d be willing to put money on it being South Dakota St over Providence. They didn’t reach the mark in defending the 3 pointer, but who cares when they score more points than anyone (besides Gonzaga) in the nation? Providence is going to try to slow the game down but they aren’t that great defensively. Also, Providence is only ranked 49th in the country per KenPom, ahead of only 25 teams in the 68 team field. This one smells like an upset. And don’t forget Vermont who plays a very similar style of insane scoring output but not great defense. Arkansas is a better opponent than them defensively but Vermont is actually the team that will want to slow the game down. That is a very interesting matchup in a game that will be played in Western New York.

I would be remiss if I did not at least mention my beloved Colgate. Last year, I picked them to upset Arkansas, and for 34 minutes of the game they were going back and forth with them on points. Unfortunately, their gas had run out and JD Notae and crew got all the way to the Elite 8. As good as Colgate is on paper, they struggle defensively and I think they will struggle against the size and strength of Wisconsin.

All of that is great, which of them are going to win 2 games? As much as I like Loyola-Chicago and Sister Jean, Villanova will not be surprised by the slow pace that they employ if they meet in R2. Additionally, I will be picking South Dakota St>Providence but Iowa is the 2nd most efficient offense in the country. if they meet in R2, I wouldn’t pick them. However, I keep looking at the East Bracket and saying it is prime for upsets. I think we could see UNC beating Marquette and then an injury-stricken Baylor Bears to make a little run. I am also certainly picking Va Tech>Texas and they will give Purdue all they can handle. Purdue generally has underachieved in the tournament. My last Upset Special is going to be Tom Izzo and Michigan St upsetting and ending Coach K’s magical run at Duke. The ACC is not strong this year and I think Duke has not been good of late.

via GIPHY

No. 8 UNC vs. No. 9 Marquette: Who wins? – Powered By PickUp
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Finding a Final Four + Champion

As fun as upsets are, this is where the bread is won. If you have any chance of winning your bracket pool and beating your grandmother, you need to nail AT LEAST 2 of the Final 4 and you probably need to pick the Champion. I looked at Final Four teams from the last several years, here is what I learned.

1. Your Final Four teams likely fit or are close to these KenPom parameters.     

2. Getting four great teams down to one is very difficult. In my research last year, I found that a lot of Final Four teams and most all Champions have elite statistics to back up their Championship run. They likely fit at least 3 of the following 5 parameters.    

3. Every Champion in the last 10 years has been ranked in the top 40 of KenPom Offensive and Defensive Efficiency.

Let’s break each of these down.

1. Gonzaga. That’s the only team in the nation that hits all 3 of KenPom’s parameters. Book them in New Orleans? Kansas, Kentucky, Houston, Baylor, UCLA, Villanova, Duke, and Arizona are all within 5 points of hitting it as well. That is a total of 9 teams that look like Final Four teams according to KenPom. These numbers aren’t averages from the previous 12 Final Four teams, rather they are guidelines for what most Final Four teams look like.

2. Time to take these 8 teams and put them through the blender. I wanted to be much more specific about what I noticed in a Final Four team rather than an Upset Special which can be an “any given day” type thing. Final Four teams have multiple elite qualities to them and normally aren’t there because of luck. Here are the teams that fit these 4 parameters.

eFG% > 54%: Houston, Kansas, Duke, Arizona, Gonzaga

Assist/Turnover ratio > 1.35: Kentucky, Houston, Arizona, UCLA, Gonzaga, Duke

3 Point Percent > 37%: Duke, Gonzaga

Points Per Game > 78: Kansas, Kentucky, Gonzaga, Arizona, Duke

Steals Per Possession > 9%: Kansas, Arizona, Villanova, Houston*, Baylor*, UCLA, Kentucky, Gonzaga, Duke (those designated with * are above 10.9% which is the Champion average)

5 points: Duke, Gonzaga

4 Points: Arizona

3 Points: Houston, Kansas, Kentucky

3. It is not at all surprising that the cream often rises to the top by the end of this fabulous tournament. Most of the time tournament champions have been teams that are in the top 20 in both offense and defense on KenPom, but if you go back 10 years every single one is in the top 40 (Baylor entered last year’s tournament in the 40s on defense, but finished in the 20s). Better yet, every single champion since 2002, besides the 2014 UCONN team, was in the top 25 of both metrics. You know your champion is in the below list… you also know the teams that won’t be crowned in April.

Teams in the top 10 of both parameters: Gonzaga

Teams in the top 20 of both parameters (besides the above team): Arizona, Baylor, Houston, UCLA

Teams in the top 30 of both: Kentucky, Kansas, Auburn, Illinois, Villanova

Teams in the top 40 of both: Tennessee, Texas, Arkansas, UCONN, Murray St

Notable omissions: Duke (7/44), Purdue (3/100), Iowa (2/77), Alabama (14/94), Michigan St (38/53), Loyola-Chicago (42/22), Providence (31/79), Wisconsin (49/38), Texas Tech (65/1)

Takeaways & My Champion

Gonzaga is perfect in every way. Almost too perfect. They qualify for all Championship caliber trends. They are primed to win the whole thing according to tournament history/facts. They are up to snuff according to KenPom, the Committee (#1 overall seed), and anyone who has seen them play. They have an elite coach that has gotten them to the Title Game in 2 of the past 4 years. They have the quality of players and will no doubt lose one or two to the NBA again next year (Holmgren is the expected #1 overall pick). They have the easiest road to the Final Four (on paper)… but it only takes one game.

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Duke hit all of the parameters set forth in the first exercise but just missed out on being in the top 40 on defense to miss the second. If they play well enough on defense in the tournament that number will improve and they will join the top 40, so I am not too worried about that ranking. Especially when there are 5 or so teams ahead of them that are not playing in any postseason tournament. However, I am worried that they haven’t been as dominant as I would have liked this season. In a down year of the ACC and with a top 5 NBA pick in Paolo Banchero, things haven’t always looked easy for Duke. Tom Izzo is a potential R2 matchup and they may see the best defensive team in the nation in Texas Tech in the S16. Plus Gonzaga is in their way to getting to New Orleans. I’m out.

Arizona only missed the 3 point % mark by a slim margin, checking in at 35.6%. That was the only parameter that kept them from sweeping that exercise. My worry for them is that they play at an extremely fast pace. If they face Houston in the S16 or Villanova in the E8, they may struggle to just play a half-court game against really stingy, slow teams. They also are without their starting PG as of this writing. The talent is there and the metrics give them a chance, but I am worried. Stupid fact, but each of the past 5 Champions came as a 1 or 2 seed from the Sough region of the bracket.

Houston has an incredibly high ranking almost across the board… yet they are a 5 seed… in Arizona’s bracket… with Illinois staring at them in the 2nd round. I mean c’mon. I think their path to get back to the Final Four this year is just too rough. They will be a very tough out though with the way they play defense.

I hate picking Kentucky in the tournament. They are always so young and inexperienced. But Coach Cal seems to have really rallied around this group of boys because of their team-first attitude that they have grown over the season. They should be the favorites to come out of their region over Baylor and UCLA. But they would have to beat Gonzaga in the Final Four… that’s gonna be tough to do. It would be fun to see Chet Holmgren and Drew Timme face off against Tshiebwe though.

The blue blood I am swooning over this year is Kansas. They have beaten every single team they have played this year at least once besides Kentucky and Dayton. They lost to Texas, Texas Tech, Texas Christian (TCU), and Baylor (Waco, Texas) but also beat each of them in a different meeting. They will be playing Texas Southern or Texas A&M Corpus-Christi in their first matchup (1vs16) but after that the soonest they will face another team from Texas is in the Final Four if TCU/Houston advance. They are highly ranked in Assist/Turnover margin, they score a lot of points, and they have one of the best players in the country in Agbaji averaging almost 20 PPG. Plus, I’m not really scared of their region. Iowa is the only team that concerns me because they can score at will.

So what are my picks? Well, I won’t give you my Final Four. But as of this writing, I have Kansas cutting down the nets for the first time since Mario Chalmers became a household name.

O/U: How many #1 seeds make the Final Four? – Powered By PickUp

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If you read all the way to the end of this massive article and didn’t just skip down to see who my champ pick was… you’re the real MVP. Thank you to everyone who took the time to read any of these articles. It was a massive project but a labor of love also. I wouldn’t do it if I didn’t enjoy it. Best of luck in your brackets this year and remember to enter my Bracket Challenge!

Who is your Cinderella? Who do you think will cut down the nets? Let me know in the comments or at @KyleTheCommish on Twitter. 

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